/origin-imgresizer.tntsports.io/2026/03/12/image-77c36b64-0bf5-4122-b3cc-599d5fa78fd6-85-2560-1440.png "Arsenal edge towards title, Spurs fear drop in new Supercomputer predictions - TNT Sports")
The geniuses at Opta have been crunching the numbers and provided the latest projections for the rest of the Premier League season. The Supercomputer gives us the latest probabilities on where each team is expected to finish in the final table, including who will lift the title, who will squeeze into the European places and, of course, who will go down.
With around a quarter of the season left to play, virtually nothing is certain in the crazy world of Premier League football.
Each team has fewer than 10 matches to play to achieve what remains of their ambitions this season, whether that be lifting the big one at the top, securing a place in Europe for next season, or further down just keeping themselves in the division.
Teams return to league business after, for those involved, a weekend of FA Cup fifth-round action and European assignments in midweek.
But what are your team’s chances of fulfilling their dreams this season?
Our friends at Opta have once again crunched the numbers, providing the latest probabilities for where each of the 20 protagonists in this long-running drama we call the Premier League will end up when final whistles are blown around the country on May 24.
Premier League predictor table
Gunners aim to keep City in the rear-view on road to title glory
While mathematically, it’s still not strictly impossible for a late charge from the chasing pack, it seems highly unlikely that this season’s Premier League champions will not be either one of Arsenal or Manchester City.
With so many near-misses in recent years, including three successive second-place finishes, The Gunners’ current seven-point lead places them as strong favourites to finally get over the line, with Opta giving them a hefty 94.4% chance of getting the job done.
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The 5.6% chance given to City to once again hunt down the north Londoners seems low given they have a game in hand and welcome the table-toppers to Etihad Stadium in April, but at this late stage, Pep Guardiola’s side will need to be virtually perfect while hoping Arsenal slip up.
City's first assignment will be to overcome relegation battlers West Ham, live on TNT Sports and discovery+, this Saturday night to at the very least maintain the current gap to the leaders, depending on how Mikel Arteta's side perform at home versus Everton earlier in the day.
Both teams also have other commitments in the UEFA Champions League and FA Cup - as well as facing each other in next weekend's EFL Cup final - which could have knock-on effects and lead to further twists in the title race in the coming weeks.
Big battles to decide UCL hunt?
With a top-four finish guaranteeing a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League, just three points separate Manchester United in third place from Liverpool in sixth, with Aston Villa and Chelsea in fourth and fifth, respectively.
Fifth place is likely to also secure entry based on English sides’ strong showing in Europe this year.
Man Utd have been the form team in the division since Michael Carrick’s appointment as caretaker head coach in January, winning six of his eight matches in charge, but were beaten for the first time in their last outing away at 10-man Newcastle United.
Opta give The Red Devils a 56% chance of remaining in the top four (76% for top five).
Conversely, Villa, who were very recently within touching distance of the summit, have seen their form nosedive, with just two wins over the same period as Man Utd's resurgence. Despite this, they are still backed with a 62% chance of a top-four finish (82% for top five).
Chelsea are at 40% for a top-four finish (64% for top five) while Liverpool are currently outsiders at 37.5% (62% top five).
The Champions League qualification battle is likely to be decided by fixtures between the main contenders, with several juicy battles among the quartet in the final weeks of the campaign.
Key fixtures between top-four chasers
DateFixtureMarch 15Man Utd v Aston VillaApril 18Chelsea v Man UtdMay 2*Man Utd v Liverpool May 9*Liverpool v ChelseaMay 17*Aston Villa v Liverpool
*Date TBC
Beyond these four, Brentford are given less than a 4% chance of gatecrashing the top four, and a 10% chance of sneaking into fifth.
However, while it’s currently unclear how far down the league European places will be allocated as we wait for cup competitions both domestically and on the continent to be decided, seventh place seems highly likely to receive a spot, potentially in the UEFA Conference League.
The Bees, who have never played in Europe, are at 58% to finish seventh or above, boosting their hopes of an historic first.
Spurs circle the drain in shock fight for survival
The bottom of the table makes for very interesting reading.
Despite an impressive upturn in form, which has seen Wolverhampton Wanderers beat Champions League-chasing Aston Villa and Liverpool in recent weeks, a dire first half of the campaign has effectively condemned them to second-tier football next season. They're given zero chance by statisticians of escaping the drop this season.
Even above them, Burnley have just a measly one in 200 chance (0.5%) of retaining their Premier League status.
With those two effectively written off, this leaves one more place with, at this point, four teams scrambling to avoid it.
Currently occupying the dreaded 18th position are West Ham on 28 points, level with Nottingham Forest, who are one place higher.
The shock name of Tottenham Hotspur rests in 16th on 29 points, and Leeds United one place higher on 31.
The Hammers are currently favourites to go down on 47%, while Leeds are considered the least likely of the four for relegation with a less than a one in 10 likelihood of a return to the Championship following promotion last season.
Forest, on their fourth manager of the season in Vitor Pereira, are given a 28.7% chance of their Premier League stay coming to an end, but all eyes are on one team in particular in the battle for survival.
Spurs, who won the UEFA Europa League last season and, as it stands, are still just about in the UEFA Champions League, could be staring at the unthinkable scenario of playing outside the top flight for the first time since 1977/78.
The north London giants head into their next league game away to champions Liverpool at Anfield with no wins in their last 10 Premier League matches, losing their last five on the bounce.
Although Opta only give them a 17.6% chance of falling through the relegation trapdoor, a hairy end to the season could be in store for the beleaguered North London side.
Despite being given just under an 8% chance of going down, Leeds will take nothing for granted and know they will need to pick up valuable points in the coming weeks.
Four of their remaining nine matches are against fellow strugglers, and there is a potential blockbuster final-day showdown with West Ham.
Like the top-four battle, these 'six-pointers' could well shape the bottom of the table come May.
Key fixtures between relegation candidates
DateFixtureMarch 22Spurs v Nottingham ForestApril 10West Ham v WolvesApril 18Leeds v WolvesApril 18Nottingham Forest v Burnley April 25Wolves v Spurs May 2*Leeds v Burnley May 9*Spurs v LeedsMay 24*West Ham v Leeds
*Date TBC
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