/origin-imgresizer.tntsports.io/2026/04/20/image-9df2246d-c6d6-4627-9407-b74edda9016b-85-2560-1440.png "Arsenal title failure or Spurs relegation? Opta supercomputer predicts which is more likely - TNT Sports")
The number-crunchers at Opta have delivered their latest projections for the remainder of the Premier League season.
As we head into the final straight of the 2025/26 Premier League campaign, there is still plenty to play for.
The title race is approaching its climax, while the quest to secure a UEFA Champions League spot took another dramatic turn over the weekend.
At the opposite end of the table, the battle to beat the drop intensifies with each passing week.
How will your team fare in the final weeks of the campaign?
Our friends at Opta have fired up their supercomputer to predict how the season will pan out between now and the final whistle of 2025/26 on May 24.
Premier League predictor table
Arsenal still favourites despite City reverse
Arsenal fell to a 2-1 loss to title rivals Manchester City on Sunday afternoon, as goals from Rayan Cherki and Erling Haaland either side of half-time saw Pep Guardiola's side close the gap at the top of the table to three points.
City have a game in hand on The Gunners, and victory over 19th-placed Burnley would see The Cityzens leapfrog Arsenal into top spot.
Even so, Opta give Arsenal a 73% chance of lifting their first Premier League title in over 20 years, though that has dropped since being handed a 94.4% chance of landing domestic glory last month.
Such a swing in fortunes means Manchester City have now gone from 5.6% to 27% to win the league over the last six weeks, a percentage that will rise should Guardiola oversee victory against The Clarets.
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City then make the trip to Wembley to take on Championship side Southampton in the Emirates FA Cup - live on TNT Sports and HBO Max - on Saturday afternoon, and that will present Arsenal with the chance to re-open a lead at the summit of England's top tier.
Arsenal welcome Newcastle United on the same day City take on Saints, as Arteta looks to end his April hoodoo and get The Gunners' title push back on track.
The north London powerhouse round off the campaign with games against Fulham, West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace.
The Fulham clash is sandwiched between a UEFA Champions League semi-final doubler-header with Atletico Madrid, the first leg available to watch live on TNT Sports and HBO Max.
Manchester City, meanwhile, are still to take on Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa following the midweek Burnley clash, as Guardiola aims to mastermind a seventh Premier League title.
However, the date of the Palace match is yet to be determined and the Bournemouth game could shift depending on whether City make the FA Cup final, causing potential havoc in the final weeks of the campaign.
City's cup semi-final assignment also means that the Gunners will play twice in the league - an opportunity to create some distance to their rivals - before Guardiola's side arrive at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on May 4.
Remaining fixtures
ArsenalManchester City Newcastle (h) - April 25Burnley (a) - April 22Fulham (h) - May 2Everton (a) - May 4West Ham (a) - May 10Brentford (h) - May 9Burnley (h) - May 17Bournemouth (a) - May 17*Crystal Palace (a) - May 24Aston Villa (h) - May 24Crystal Palace (h) - TBC
Battle for the Champions League
English teams' performances in Europe means that a fifth-placed finish will be enough to secure a spot in the Champions League next season.
And Manchester United are in the driving seat to finish inside the top five following their 1-0 win at Chelsea on Saturday night.
Matheus Cunha's first-half strike was enough to secure all the spoils at Stamford Bridge as Manchester United bounced back from their surprise 2-1 loss to Leeds United in fine fashion.
Michael Carrick's men now sit 10 points clear of sixth, and the Opta supercomputer has The Red Devils at 44% to secure third in the Premier League this season.
In fact, they are given just a 1.4% chance of finishing outside the top five following their victory in west London.
It would take a huge downturn in form for Manchester United to not be plying their trade in Europe's elite club competition next season.
The aim, now, will be to wrap up third spot, with Aston Villa hot on Manchester United's heels.
Tammy Abraham kept The Villans' hopes of finishing third alive with a second-half injury-time winner in a seven-goal thriller with Sunderland on Sunday.
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Unai Emery's side have a 40.8% chance of finishing third, and are as low as 1.2% to finish sixth, with a spot in the UEFA Champions League all-but guaranteed.
Attention, therefore, turns to the fifth and final Champions League spot.
Liverpool currently sit fifth following their late 2-1 win in the first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sunday as Virgil van Dijk's towering header confirmed victory over Everton.
The numbers favour Arne Slot's side, who are now at 49.6% to finish fifth and just 8.2% to finish outside the Champions League spots.
Liverpool's win combined with Chelsea's defeat means there is now just a 5.1% chance that The Blues are playing Champions League football next season.
Brentford (2.1%), Bournemouth (2.5%) and Brighton & Hove Albion (2.8%) are also unlikely to take a seat at the head table in Europe's top-tier competition.
Spurs tipped for Championship football
At the other end of the table, Tottenham Hotspur are now the most likely to join Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Championship next season.
Spurs were minutes away from a first league win in 2026 on Saturday only for Georgino Rutter to break hearts with a second-half stoppage-time equaliser in Brighton's 2-2 draw in the capital over the weekend.
The result means Roberto De Zerbi's men are at 56.6% to finish 18th in what has been a wholly disappointing season for the 2025 UEFA Europa League winners.
West Ham, who take on London rivals Crystal Palace on Monday night, now have a 38.5% chance of dropping out of the Premier League.
Leeds (0.4%) and Nottingham Forest (4.5%) are also now unlikely to be dragged into the relegation scrap following their respective wins over Wolves and Burnley at the weekend.
Stream the Premier League, men’s and women’s FA Cup, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, UEFA Conference League and more live on TNT Sports and HBO Max.
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