League leaders Arsenal return to Premier League action after the third international break of the season with a monster slate awaiting. In the span of a week, they host rivals Tottenham and travel across London to face Chelsea in two pivotal London derbies as the Gunners look to cement their spot atop the table. Nestled in between is a blockbuster Champions League showdown with a Bayern Munich side that has been scoring for fun and cruising through the Bundesliga and Champions League league phase.
The narrative surrounding Arsenal took an unsurprisingly negative turn when they drew Sunderland 2-2 heading into the break, a perfect encapsulation of the ever-changing winds of PL opinions. With Manchester City beating Liverpool handily, the gap between the Gunners and City has been reduced to 4 points. To hear the media tell it, Arsenal, who haven’t lost a match since September, are in Pep’s sights as City take form, and the ever-present question about the Gunners’ mentality has taken center stage with more than 30 matches still left to play. The tired “bottlers” comments have even been tossed around by those perpetually online commenters with room temperature IQs.
Nevertheless, all eyes will be fixed on The Emirates on Sunday with those questions and many others hovering over the match. The depth has been tested early and often, and it has risen to the occasion so far. It’s “next man up” once again for a few crucial positions. With their pedigree in question once again, can Arsenal kick back on with a few different faces and continue their title charge?
Here are three talking points ahead of Sunday’s match:
Know the Enemy
Dr. Jekyl, meet Mr. Hyde.
Tottenham come to the Emirates as one of the league’s most mercurial sides, with the distinction of being at once the league’s best side away from home (4-1-0 on the road) and one of the worst at their own pitch (1-2-3). Sitting 5th in the table, they are part of a log jam of 5 clubs on 18 points. Depending on this weekend’s results around the league, they could be as high as 4th and as low as 12th by the time the final whistle blows on Sunday.
Inconsistency is nothing new for the third biggest club in London. Last season saw Ange Postecoglou sacked following a tumultuous second season where they finished 17th domestically while also winning their first major trophy, the Europa League, since their 2007-08 League Cup trophy. Spurs hired former Brentford manager Thomas Frank to fill the vacancy and stop the bleeding. It’s a shame, cause I rather liked him. If I have to give Spurs any credit (ugh), it’s that Frank has managed to add sorely-needed stability on the pitch. Ange’s do-or-die tactical kamikaze approach has been replaced with a more pragmatic and possession-based system, which has made them slightly less volatile (but not by much).
So far, Frank has struggled to overcome the club’s deeply rooted Spursiness. The season began as so many other seasons have for them, with a wave of early results propelling them into the spotlight. A 0-2 win over Manchester City at the Etihad on match day 2 punctuated a run of matches into early October where they lost one match from 10 across all competitions.
But in true Spurs form, they hit a brick wall. Since beating Leeds on October 4th, they have managed only 3 wins from their last 7 matches. Their final match before the break was a Spurs classic, with Richarlison scoring in stoppage to take the lead against Manchester United, getting a yellow for removing his top, only for Spurs to concede to United moments later at the death to split the points.
Truth be told, Spurs are incredibly fortunate to be where they are in the table. Based on the stats, they are drastically over-performing their xG with 19 goals from 11.09 xG in the PL. They have taken the 3rd fewest shots in the league (107) and the 5th fewest shots on target (38). According to Opta, they should more realistically be 11 places lower in 16th. Much like the offense, the defense has over-performed after having given up 10 goals from 15.19 xG, the biggest differential in the league.
Maintaining that level of punching above their weight class is likely unsustainable over the season. But derbies don’t care about stats. Spurs will come to the Emirates battered and bruised with up to 12 players out with injury, but with a point to prove after failing to beat the Gunners over their last 6 competitive matches, and having failed to win at the Emirates in 15 consecutive league matches.
Injuries & Suspensions
If Arsenal are to finally win the PL, they are certainly going to have to do it the hard way. The international break saw Gabriel Magalhaes, who has fast become Arsenal’s front-runner for POTY, pick up a thigh injury during Brazil’s friendly against Senegal at the Emirates that could see him out until the new year. Frustrating doesn’t begin to describe it.
Similarly, Riccardo Calafiori returned to London early after picking up a minor hip injury with Italy. It was first reported that he would be available for selection this Sunday, but he has not yet trained this week.
On the plus side, the cavalry appears to be on the way. Gabriel Jesus has returned to full training after recovering from his ACL injury last December. Likewise, Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, and even club captain Martin Ødegaard, all of who have missed a decent swath of matches, were all spotted training with the first team midweek. Whether any of them will make the matchday squad remains to be seen, and Mikel Arteta gave zero insight into who, if any, would potentially feature during his pre-match presser.
OUT: Gabriel (thigh), Kai Havertz (knee)
QUESTIONABLE: Gabriel Jesus, Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, Riccardo Calafiori
Predicted Lineup
Attack: Trossard, Gyökeres, Saka
Jesus and Gyökeres both back in training is excellent news. Jesus, though, still has a ways to go before he is fully match fit. Gyökeres’ injury was not nearly as severe as first thought, so there is a good shot that he makes the lineup. If not, then Arteta always has the world’s greatest 4th choice striker in Mikel Merino. Leandro Trossard has been in great form for the Gunners and I don’t see any of the available players supplanting him right now. Bukayo Saka returns after a very good international break which saw him bag a goal and assist. If Madueke is back, then there will be a chance for some rotation on the right as the match wears on.
Midfield: Rice, Zubimendi, Eze
Martin Ødegaard’s return is massive. For all of the nits than people try to pick, he simply makes the attack better. He is reportedly a late decision, which is why I think that, at best, he makes a late cameo. Eberechi Eze has filled in nicely, but hasn’t quite replicated what Martin can do for the midfield. Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi have been as rock-solid a partnering as you could hope for in the middle of the park and will look to dictate the middle of the pitch on Sunday.
Defense: Lewis-Skelly, Mosquera, Saliba, Timber
The injury to Gabriel means a shuffle in the back. Mikel Arteta has a few options available, made even less clear with Calafiori not training this week. Myles Lewis-Skelly at left back provides a little bite and pace in his stead. Piero Hincapie is also a shout on the left, but I have an inkling that MLS will get a start. Cristhian Mosquera could slide into Gabriel’s slot. He has shown an incredibly high ceiling and hasn’t balked at being thrown into the fire early in big matches. The right side will look to anchor the back line and provide stability with William Saliba and Jurrien Timber holding down their spots.
Keeper: Raya
David Raya’s command in the back is going to be massive with a few changes in the defense. His composure and leadership are just as immense as his shot-stopping and ball-playing abilities.
The last two weeks has been building up to this stretch. If ever there was a time for the Gunners to put up or shut up, it’s this. Arsenal will want to leave no question that they are exactly where they deserve to be at the top of the table, and what better side to prove that point against than Spurs? A hated rival, at home, with momentum and bragging rights on the line; there’s no better viewing than that.
WHO: Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur
WHAT: Premier League match day 12
WHEN: Sunday, November 23rd, 11:30am EST/8:30am PST/4:30pm GMT
WHERE: The Emirates Stadium, London
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming live on the Peacock and Amazon Prime Video apps.
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