We look ahead to Wednesday’s EFL Cup fourth round match at St. James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Will the Magpies progress as they seek to defend their crown?
Newcastle vs Tottenham: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer rates Newcastle United as having a 51.7% chance of winning the match inside 90 minutes.
The Magpies have won five of their last six games against Tottenham Hotspur in all competitions
Joelinton has scored more goals against Spurs than any other opponent for the Magpies (four).
We’ve reached the fourth round of the Carabao Cup for 2025-26, with holders Newcastle United welcoming Tottenham Hotspur for an all-Premier League clash. Eddie Howe’s side obviously have a good record in this competition, but this stage has often tripped up defending champions in recent times.
The holders of the League Cup have exited the competition in round four in three of the last four seasons. Liverpool were the exception last year when they reached the final, losing, of course, to Newcastle. The Magpies also knocked Manchester United out at this stage in 2023-24 to gain a modicum of revenge for their defeat in the final the season before.
The two prior holders (Liverpool and Manchester City) were beaten in round four on penalties, so could we be set for something similar on Wednesday evening?
If we do, it will be a break from the recent head-to-head history between these clubs. None of the last eight meetings have been drawn, with the last such match a 2-2 tie in the north east in 2021. Excluding games played behind closed doors, you must go back a decade further to find a draw between Newcastle and Spurs.
There was a League Cup tie in between, one that Newcastle would rather forget. The previous meeting in this competition ended in a 4-0 Tottenham win at White Hart Lane in 2014. The goals came from four different scorers too, with Nabil Bentaleb, Nacer Chadli, Harry Kane and Roberto Soldado all on the score sheet.
Newcastle’s form is such that you would assume this match will be considerably closer. They have scored 13 goals and conceded five in their last six games in all competitions, claiming the first goal in all but one of those matches.
Tottenham’s chances are not helped by a lengthy injury list. At the time of writing, Spurs have nine players unavailable, the most of any club in the Premier League. Their treatment room is currently housing Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison, Cristian Romero and Dominic Solanke, among others.
Thomas Frank has enjoyed relatively little success in cup competitions in England, albeit expectations will be higher with Spurs than they were at Brentford. He took the Bees to the semi-finals of this competition in 2021, where they were beaten by Tottenham, funnily enough. Any Spurs fans looking for positive omens might like to know that the Bees had knocked Newcastle out in the previous round.
Spurs have also progressed from each of their last four fourth round ties in the League Cup since losing 3-2 to West Ham in 2017-18.
There are few tougher teams to face in the League Cup than Newcastle these days, though. They have won each of their last seven matches in the competition, with Liverpool in 1995 the last side to win eight or more (11).
Howe’s side will have a few players missing, mostly in defence. Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento are out, while Sven Botman is a doubt after going off with a head injury against Fulham on Saturday, though his manager confirmed it was not a concussion. Yoane Wissa remains sidelined, so will not make his Newcastle debut against his former Brentford boss.
Newcastle will at least have their lucky charm, both for this competition and these opponents. Joelinton has been directly involved in nine goals in 18 starts in the League Cup (six goals, three assists). The Brazilian has also scored more goals against Spurs than any other opponent for the Magpies (four). The Newcastle midfielder could prove the difference in what should be an entertaining contest.
Newcastle vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
This head-to-head has largely been in favour of Newcastle in recent times after a long stretch of Tottenham dominance.
Newcastle have won five of their last six games against Spurs in all competitions (L1). This run comes after only winning four and drawing two of their 16 prior meetings with Spurs.
Newcastle won the last game between them 2-1 in north London. The Magpies came from behind thanks to goals from Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak.
Eddie Howe’s side won by the same score when the teams last met at St. James’ Park in September 2024. Isak scored the winner in that match too. Whatever happened to him?
Newcastle vs Tottenham Prediction
The home side have slightly better than coin-flip odds of winning the tie in normal time.
Newcastle United won the match after 90 minutes in 51.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of the game.
The other possible outcomes are rated as almost equally likely. There is a 24.6% chance that the match is drawn and therefore goes to penalties, with the remaining 23.7% allotted to a Tottenham win after 90 mins.
On which side will the coin land here?
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.