Opta’s supercomputer has backed Tottenham to defeat Nottingham Forest in a crucial Premier League clash.
Tottenham Hotspur has been given a 48.7 per cent chance of beating Nottingham Forest by in Sunday’s huge relegation six-pointer at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Forest given a 25.6 per cent probability of victory and a draw assessed at 25.7 per cent.
The match is as close to a must-win fixture as Tottenham will face between now and the end of the season. Forest sit just one point and one place below Spurs in the table, meaning the two sides are separated by the thinnest of margins with eight games remaining. A Tottenham victory would create meaningful daylight between themselves and the bottom three. Defeat would be potentially catastrophic.
Alarming run for Tottenham
The historical context around Tottenham’s winless run in 2026 adds a genuinely alarming dimension to Sunday’s fixture. Spurs have drawn five and lost seven of their 12 Premier League games since the start of the calendar year, the only top-flight side yet to register a single league victory in 2026.
Only three clubs in Premier League history have gone longer without a win from the start of a calendar year, and all three were relegated. Sunderland went 17 games in 2002-03, Derby 18 in 2007-08, and Middlesbrough 14 in 2016-17. The company Tottenham are keeping in the record books is as unwelcome as it is alarming.
There is cause for optimism, however. The point at Anfield and the 3-2 victory over Atletico Madrid in midweek demonstrated a squad capable of competing and creating when confidence is flowing. Tudor will be hoping that momentum carries directly into Sunday’s fixture, which represents by far the most winnable game remaining on the schedule, given the opposition’s own precarious league position.
Vicario’s vulnerability remains a significant concern heading into the match. Forest possesses players in Callum Hudson-Odoi and Morgan Gibbs-White who are capable of scoring from distance, and with Spurs having conceded 11 goals from outside the box this season, more than any other Premier League side, that is a specific tactical threat Tudor must address.
Tottenham’s last win in this fixture came in April 2024, a 3-1 home victory. Replicating that result on Sunday would do more for their survival prospects than almost anything else that could happen this weekend.