Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and makes a case for Tottenham to win at Arsenal.
Burnley vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
There is a trend developing in Chelsea's matches against relegation threatened teams in that they are making very slow, stodgy starts in games. When assessing their last 11 Premier League matches against promoted teams or Wolves, they have only been winning at half-time on three of those occasions.
Sometimes these trends have little substance but I think it makes sense here as Enzo Maresca is a notoriously control-focused manager who doesn't overly like taking risks even against the lesser teams. So that can lead to low scoring first halves - under Maresca, seven Premier League teams have scored more first half goals than Chelsea.
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Teams can also struggle to find their rhythm in the first fixture back after this break which is something that can be used to our advantage here to get against Chelsea in the first half.
The half-time/full-time market looks a market to get involved with the Draw/Chelsea paying 7/2 with Sky Bet in a game where Chelsea should improve their attacking output as the game goes on.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brighton vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
The betting guru derby always is a fixture with a nice edge as Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham's algorithms go at it.
All the data shouts loud that Brighton are a top team waiting to happen in terms of their style of play but they are a team that come with risks when fancied by the market. They can struggle against low blocks and when enjoying the share of possession owing to a lack of killer instinct in the final third.
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In their last 21 games where they've enjoyed more possession than their opponents, they have won just four of those games. So if you are backing their opposition in these spots on the double chance you are making a very high return on investment based on the prices. Brentford, who have beaten Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle this season, in that market at 5/6 with Sky Bet are the obvious play here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Brentford double chance (5/6 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
When these two managers meet, history tells us: there's goals.
Andoni Iraola has faced Nuno Espirito Santo four times and there's been 14 goals scored - that's an average of 3.5 goals per game and both teams to score has copped in each meeting.
Iraola obviously knows how to exploit the transitional moments in Nuno's defensive setup but West Ham, who have scored six goals in their last three games and have found a winning formula, have the quality to punish mistakes.
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This should be another game where both sides push hard early on and leave nothing behind, which makes the 11/10 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals a very appealing play to consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
Fulham vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
If Fulham are to be dragged into a relegation scrap this season, there have to be worries about this team coping with the sustained stress and physical pressure that comes with fighting the drop.
Marco Silva's men want rhythm, control and the ball zipping around in pretty triangles. What they don't want is a team who arrive, roll their sleeves up and ask them to defend the ugly stuff. And that's exactly what Sunderland will bring - just ask Arsenal.
Dan Ballard, who scored against the Gunners and is 14/1 to score anytime here, looks seriously overpriced.
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Ballard has become Sunderland's biggest set piece threat: he times his runs superbly, attacks the ball like a centre-forward and doesn't need volume - just one clean delivery to cause panic. Against a Fulham defence that struggles to pick up powerful movers in the box, he should get that moment in what looks a great opportunity for Sunderland to bag another three points.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Dan Ballard to score (14/1 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Sean Dyche's teams are notoriously comfortable soaking up pressure. They don't always invite high-quality chances, but they will concede a lot of low-probability shots. In 28 Premier League matches playing away at either Liverpool, Manchester City or Arsenal, Dyche's teams have conceded 20.1 shots per 90.
That tendency to soak it up plays right into Liverpool's hands: the Reds are more than happy to take lots of shots, even from distance or awkward positions. I'm fully expecting Arne Slot's men to dominate possession, apply sustained pressure and force plenty of attempts - even if Forest don't give up many clear-cut chances which may lead them to staying competitive in the game.
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This looks a great opportunity to back the overall Liverpool shots line of 20 or more at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Wolves vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Football clubs love a reset button. New manager, new message, new mood music, new hope.
But sometimes a reset is just a rebrand, not a rebirth - and Wolves hiring Rob Edwards feels dangerously close to a case of putting lipstick on a pig.
Not because Edwards isn't a capable coach, far from it. His work at Luton, Forest Green and his early games at Middlesbrough showcase his ability. But this Wolves squad, in its current state, has deeper issues that stem from the hierarchy that changing the face in the dugout won't magically fix.
Crystal Palace, by contrast, are a team who know who they are. Compact without the ball, efficient with it and blessed with final third quality who don't need 10 chances to make one count.
They're physically stronger, better organised and operate with a clarity Wolves simply can't match at the moment. The away win at 19/20 with Sky Bet should land.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Newcastle vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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When it comes to Eddie Howe vs Manchester City, the stats don't lie: Pep Guardiola has his number in a big way. Howe has never won in 18 Premier League meetings with City, losing 16 times.
That kind of dominance from Guardiola's side is not just a quirk, it's a pattern that we can put lots of trust in when it comes to making betting decisions.
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Despite City's dominance in the head to heads, Howe is unlikely to change the way he sets his team in matches of this nature. He knows he's likely to be overrun, so instead he tries to limit the damage with a focus on being defensively secure. In big matches like this, Newcastle have shown they can be a bit cagey: they'll absorb, cut down the spaces and make it hard for City to feed Erling Haaland.
This means backing a City victory alongside the under 3.5 goals line at 15/8 with Sky Bet rates as the smart way to boost the odds on an away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Leeds vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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The offside trap is back at Aston Villa.
It's not just a quirk, not just a tactical flourish, it's become the heartbeat of the defensive identity under Unai Emery. And crucially, there's a genuine correlation between Villa getting that line right and Villa winning football matches.
Whenever Villa's back four snap into line as one, they suffocate opponents. Attacks stall, runners misfire and dangerous moments dissolve into a raised flag and a reset.
Villa are catching the opposition offside 4.5 times per game across their last 12 games. And, in the last seven Premier League games they've caught 28 players offside - the most of any team by 10.
It's no-coincidence then they've managed to win five of their last six Premier League matches. And Leeds do like to commit bodies forward in direct fashion. That tactical philosophy is tailor-made for Emery's razor-precise trap to flourish once again.
All roads lead to backing Aston Villa to win at 6/4 with Sky Bet. If the flags are flying, Villa should be too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Arsenal vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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Gabriel is the lynchpin of this Arsenal defence - their high line, their aerial insurance policy and their most physical presence in the back four. Without him, Arsenal may have a problem in the next few weeks if his abductor injury is as bad as early reports suggest. Starting here.
Tottenham under Thomas Frank will enjoy this derby day assignment.
Few managers in the league coach 'underdog football' as effectively as the former Brentford boss.
Frank's Brentford side made a habit of punishing big teams. The smart money says he'll try to copy-paste that blueprint here: frustrate, pounce, exploit the absence of Arsenal's defensive enforcer from both open play and set pieces. Spurs have the quality to make a big move in the game - like they did away at Manchester City and in the Super Cup vs PSG.
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The betting is obviously trending towards Arsenal at 2/5 with Sky Bet but that doesn't fully account for the defensive reshuffle forced by Gabriel's absence. Arsenal can and still probably will win, of course, but Tottenham suddenly have a real foothold in the match-up, and the market doesn't quite reflect it.
Tottenham double chance it is then at 2/1 with Sky Bet. And, the 7/1 on an away win needs a good look, too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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Manchester United should come with a disclaimer: 'entertaining but structurally unstable.'
Ruben Amorim has a team overflowing with attacking talent, energy and moments of genuine quality yet one that carries enough defensive looseness to turn every 90 minutes into a wild ride. There have been 37 goals in their Premier League games - working to an average of 3.36 per 90. No team averages higher.
They are the must-watch team in the Premier League because of it.
Amorim has realised that they are a team built for moments - not for consistency - and he's embracing it.
And, goals at both ends are becoming the smartest angle in United's games.
This looks a clash where both teams will fancy themselves going forward and neither will fully trust themselves without the ball. Sky Bet go 10/11 on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and that looks very backable considering the direction of travel in United games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score (10/11 with Sky Bet)
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