The Premier League relegation battle looks set to go right down to the wire with four clubs seemingly battling to avoid the one remaining spot in the drop zone.
Perhaps Wolves or Burnley could still pull off the greatest of escapes but, in all likelihood, they will crash into the Championship and then be joined by one of Tottenham, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds.
Relegation for a Spurs side that won the Europa League last season, reached the Champions League knockout stage this term and has spent just one season outside the top flight since 1950 would go down as one of the biggest shocks in Premier League history but their chastening 3-0 defeat to Forest in their final game before the March international break and Igor Tudor’s catastrophic spell in charge has made that a real possibility.
The north Londoners are currently 17th in the table, just a point above bitter rivals West Ham in 18th, while Forest and Leeds have a marginally greater cushion between them and the bottom three. But with seven games remaining for each, there will be plenty of twists and turns still to come.
Here’s how the crucial relegation run-in is shaping up.
Position: 15th | Played: 31 | Points: 33 | GD: -11
Remaining fixtures:
Where to pick up points? The fixtures have fallen fairly kindly for Leeds and the chances are there for them to secure Premier League football next season. Three wins would definitely be enough to survive and two may well do it, so they’ll be eyeing up home fixtures against the current bottom two – Wolves and Burnley – to get over the line. Away games against relegation rivals Tottenham and West Ham also look like prime opportunities to get results on the board.
Tricky contests? Their first game after the international break, away to high-flying Manchester United, is their toughest remaining fixture on paper and leaving Old Trafford with anything would be hugely impressive. That is their only game against a team currently above 10th in the standings but a trip to Bournemouth in April and hosting European football-chasing Brighton in their penultimate fixture won’t be easy. Will an FA Cup quarter-final against West Ham straight after the international break proce to be a welcome distraction or a hindrance?
Final straight? Leeds will be desperate to have secured safety by the time they travel to West Ham on the final day but if not, that could be a high-octane shootout for survival. Games against Brighton and Spurs immediately preceding that are too unfriendly as finales go.
Position: 16th | Played: 31 | Points: 32 | GD: -12
Remaining fixtures:
Where to pick up points? The three points they picked up by securing their first Premier League win since late January by hammering Tottenham 3-0 in the final match before the international break could prove vital with a tricky-looking remaining schedule. A home fixture against seemingly doomed Burnley is a golden opportunity for Forest to collect three more points and one further win in addition to that could be enough to get over the line. A home game against a mid-table Bournemouth side who may have nothing to play for on the final day could be their best chance.
Tricky contests? Games against three of the current top six still await Forest with trips to Man United and Chelsea on the docket as well as Aston Villa heading to the City Ground just three days after Forest travel to Porto for the first leg of their Europa League quarter-final. A trip to Wearside to face this season’s surprise package Sunderland at the end of April is also a tough ask.
Final straight? It’s not the best with a journey to Old Trafford on the penultimate day of the season far from ideal although, as mentioned above, hosting Bournemouth on the final day could offer a chance to snatch the points required if things aren’t wrapped up by then. A home match against a floundering Newcastle as their antepenultimate fixture could also be worse. Things could be complicated if they are still going in the Europa League by that point, however.
Position: 17th | Played: 31 | Points: 30 | GD: -10
Remaining fixtures:
Where to pick up points? At the moment, Spurs can’t pick up points from anywhere... They haven’t won for 14 league matches, with their last Premier League triumph coming against Crystal Palace back in December and their most recent attempt being a 3-0 hammering by relegation rivals Nottingham Forest. On paper, a game away to Wolves at the end of April is a good opportunity for three points, as is a potentially pivotal clash with Leeds at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium three matches from the end of the campaign, but every clash is tough currently. There’s a good chance they may have a new man in charge by the time they face Sunderland on 12 April though and how they could do with a new manager bounce.
Tricky contests? Sidestepping the obvious quip of ‘every single one’, given their recent form, away games at Champions League-chasing Aston Villa and Chelsea in May don’t look too fruitful. Even home fixtures with mid-table sides Sunderland, Brighton, plus top-half Everton suddenly look that much more dangerous as well.
Final straight? Leeds at home as the third-last game is absolutely huge. Should that game go awry and Spurs head into the final two matches in the relegation zone, then a trip to Stamford Bridge and clash with Everton to finish up appear unlikely to provide succour.
Position: 18th | Played: 31 | Points: 29 | GD: -21
Remaining fixtures:
Where to pick up points? Their impressive form since hugely damaging back-to-bac defeats to Wolves and Nottingham Forest at the start of the year have seen West Ham go from doomed to having a genuine chance of survival. They may well be questioning exactly where the form that has seen them claim four wins and three draws from their last 10 league games was earlier in the season but if they can keep it going from here, then a home game against cellar-dwelling Wolves straight after the international break and a trip to struggling Crystal Palace to follow look like brilliant chances to rack up victories. Welcoming Leeds to the London Stadium on the final day also looms incredibly large.
Tricky contests? The Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H) run from late April to early May does not look very friendly. The games before and after that run appear to be much better chances to pick up the points the Hammers need to pull off an impressive escape.
Final straight? If West Ham can get through that three-game stretch with a realistic shot at survival then an away game against Newcastle and a home clash with Leeds to finish the season might just be the ticket to get them clear of the drop zone. The final-day showdown against Daniel Farke’s side could be an all-time classic but won’t be a pretty watch if both sides are still fighting for their lives. However, the fact that the Whites are coming to the London Stadium at least plays into Nuno and co’s hands.
This could genuinely go in any direction and you’d have to be a brave person to predict the outcome with any confidence. It will surely all come down to the final day when West Ham host Leeds in a showdown for the ages, Spurs play Everton and Nottingham Forest host Bournemouth. Leeds generally have the kindest fixtures and although the goals have dried up for them recently, they should have enough to survive given the current cushion.
Forest could be adversely affected by their Europa League run and will probably need to have survival wrapped up going into the final couple of games, while West Ham’s crunch period comes straight after the international break. The next two fixtures could make or break the Hammers’ chances. Meanwhile, Spurs are in abject form and appear to be on the brink of ditching Igor Tudor. Could a new manager bounce prove sufficient? At this stage, we’ll say no and condemn Tottenham to the Championship for next season. But everything will change week by week.