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This season's Premier League relegation battle is shaping up to be one of the toughest in decades.
No team in the last nine campaigns has earned 36 points and been relegated, yet after 29 rounds of games, the latest Opta projections suggest that 18th place is currently set to finish on 37 points, meaning 38 points would ensure survival.
In the 30 Premier League seasons that have had 38 games a season for each club, 36 points would have ensured survival 60% of the time.
That rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.
West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers picked up 42 points but were still relegated.
The safety thresholds for the last two seasons have been significantly lower due to newly-promoted teams struggling in the Premier League. The last two seasons have seen 26 and 27 points be enough to seal safety, respectively.
Only once prior to the 2023-24 season has a total below 30 points been enough to seal survival.
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Craig Nelson
BBC Sport reporter
Believe it or not, but Finlay is just an example of the messages we have had predicting Spurs as relegation certainties.
We will publish more shortly.
Keep your messages coming in and we would love to also hear from West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds United supporters.
How are you feeling right now? Nervous?
Sadly, the next post on what points target clubs might have to aim for to retain their top-flight status may not brighten your mood...
How big a point could that be for Forest?
Man City 2-2 Nottm Forest
Shamoon Hafez
Football news reporter
Nottingham Forest were the ones celebrating a point at the end of a frantic second half at Manchester City, but could well have taken home all three as the clock ticked into added time.
Elliot Anderson, who has been linked with a move to City in the summer transfer window, swung in a corner which was met by Ryan Yates at the near post, but the substitute thumped his header the wrong side of the post.
Forest needed to get something out of the game with West Ham beating Fulham and Anderson's equaliser ensured they did not drop into the bottom three but are now perilously close to it.
Despite the unlikely point, Forest remain winless in their last six league games, while their new manager - ex-Wolves boss Vitor Pereira - is yet to taste victory as a top-flight manager in 13 attempts this season.
Summerville strike heaps pressure on rivals
Fulham 0-1 West Ham
Crysencio Summerville scored the only goal of the game as West Ham boosted their hopes of Premier League survival with a hard-fought win against Fulham at Craven Cottage.
The Dutchman pounced on a lapse in communication between Bernd Leno and Calvin Bassey shortly after the hour mark to earn the struggling Hammers only a seventh win of the Premier League season - albeit their fourth in the last eight matches.
After Nottingham Forest's 2-2 draw with Manchester City, the three points moved Nuno Espirito Santo's current side level on points with his former club.
It really now is game on, but could both West Ham and Forest yet leapfrog either Leeds, Tottenham or both to survive in the top flight for another season?
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Get Involved - Who will avoid relegation?
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Bottom two Wolves and Burnley have both shown fight over recent weeks, but remain well adrift of safety.
Wolves are 12 points below 17th-placed Nottingham Forest with eight games to play, while Burnley are nine points behind Forest with a maximum 27 left to play for.
Anything can happen in the remaining weeks - teams higher up the table, such as Crystal Palace and Brighton, could yet be sucked into the relegation battle.
But it looks like one from Leeds United, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham will join Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season.
Which team will it be? Share your thoughts using the 'Get Involved' button.
What's to come?
While the title chatter may be over and done with, we aren't going anywhere just yet.
From one end of the Premier League table, we're heading to the other.
There were some significant results at the top, but maybe those at the bottom had even bigger implications in the grand scheme of things...
A positive result for West Ham and a big point for Nottingham Forest have piled huge pressure on Tottenham Hotspur, who host Crystal Palace this evening.
All of that to come and more as we make our way into Thursday afternoon.
'We are used to this, all the 50-50s have gone against us'
Man City 2-2 Nottm Forest
Manchester City
Manchester City captain Bernardo Silva, speaking to TNT Sports about the penalty incident that didn't go their way: "We are used to this [happening] this season. All the 50-50s have gone against us.
"The Erling [Haaland] incident - for me it is a penalty. What can Erling do? This season we are used to it. We know how it works.
"Our job is to be better. These things we cannot control. What we can control is our own performances. That is what we must focus on."
'I don't think because there's contact it should be a penalty'
Man City 2-2 Nottm Forest
Danny Murphy
Former Liverpool midfielder on BBC Match of the Day
On the Erling Haaland penalty appeal:
There is contact. Erling Haaland's leg hits Matz Sels' face here. I don't think just because there's contact it should be a penalty but some refs would've given it. I don't think it's a stonewall one, but I think if it was given, it wouldn't have been overturned.
As well, Man City are playing a team fighting relegation with all the quality they've got, they don't want to be relying on refereeing decisions. But I understand the disgruntlement around it.
'I would expect a penalty' - former referee Gallagher
Man City 2-2 Nottm Forest
Former Premier League referee Dermot Gallagher, speaking on Sky Sports about whether Manchester City should've been awarded a penalty for Matz Sels' challenge on Erling Haaland: "As a forward, if I push the ball past the goalkeeper like that and the goalkeeper hits the man and doesn't get the ball, I would expect a penalty. The forward has pushed the ball away, the goalkeeper hasn't got it, he's gone to ground, he's got to get the ball, and he doesn't."
On why VAR didn't intervene: "I think their view is probably that Haaland has dragged his foot into him, but I don't see it like that, and that's my opinion."
Former Premier League forward Jay Bothroyd agreed with Gallagher, adding: "That's 100% a penalty. I'm not understanding why they haven't given that.
"Like Dermot said there, he's got the ball around the goalkeeper. I think the goalkeeper even knows. I think Haaland is even thinking 'I'm definitely getting a penalty here. He's taken me out'.
"I don't understand what they've seen."
Should Man City have been awarded a penalty?
Man City 2-2 Nottm Forest
Manchester City
Erling Haaland had his chances in the game after returning to the starting line-up from an injury that kept him out of Manchester City's win at Leeds.
He managed to get in behind the Nottingham Forest defence in the first half, taking the ball around goalkeeper Matz Sels but firing into the side netting.
The Norway striker was presented with a similar chance in the second half while City were leading 2-1, but this time appeared to be caught by Sels.
Haaland put forward a strong appeal for a penalty but referee Darren England did not award a spot-kick and video assistant referee Tony Harrington decided not to overturn the decision.
'They are not the Man City of old'
Paul Robinson
Former England goalkeeper on the Football Daily podcast
I don't think many people would have seen that one coming tonight.
Forest have only won four away games all season.
A lot has been said about Manchester City, we all expect them to go on that run and they have the home game against Arsenal which is being held up as the pivotal game.
Actually they are not the City of old. We have seen that, we know there are chinks in their armour. They were on a great run, have an especially impressive home record, and you would have genuinely expected them to pick up the points.
Three or four weeks ago I was in the City camp for the title race, thinking Pep thrives at this moment of the season, he enjoys it, and his teams seem to kick on.
Both of them are competing in four competitions so there will still be twists and turns, but from an Arsenal point of view there are always questions as they haven't got it over the line and done it for so long. That finger will always be pointed and that question asked until they do it.
But, the questions they are being asked they are answering. Manchester City are stumbling at times.