Spurs have been linked with a January move for a striker allegedly worth £70m - but would it make sense for them?
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The good news for Tottenham Hotspur fans is that few Premier League teams have so much money to spend of PSR headroom to play with. The bad news is that they clearly need to use it. As the January transfer window looms, few teams may be as busy as an ailing Spurs side which has struggled desperately for consistency.
Much of the gossip doing the rounds has focussed on Thomas Frank’s apparent desire for new attacking players, which isn’t especially surprising given how disjointed Spurs’ work in the final third has been since the summer. Dominic Solanke is struggling with injury, Randal Kolo Muani has shown little more than the occasional flash of quality since signing from PSG and Richarlison seems likely to leave before long anyway. Change is required in some capacity.
Which makes one of the more recent rumours concerning Spurs unsurprising – that they’re interested in Brentford’s Igor Thiago after a superb start to the season in which he has already scored 11 goals. But is he really a realistic transfer target, do the rumours have any weight behind them, and is he really the kind of striker Spurs need?
Is Igor Thiago the kind of striker Tottenham Hotspur should sign this January?
Regardless of whether Thiago is available or affordable, it’s fair to question whether he’s precisely what Spurs need – although the fact that he clearly knows his way to the back of the net suggests that he is in possession of at least one of the major attributes that Tottenham are lacking at the moment.
Not that it’s necessarily clear that he can maintain his recent prolific form. His scoring rate is being bolstered by a flurry of penalties (five of his 11 league goals have come from the spot with one miss) and he’s scoring at a rate which comfortably exceeds his expected goals – a good thing over time, of course, but also a potential sign of a player who will revert to the mean when the sample size is so small.
From open play, Thiago has scored six goals from exactly 4.0xG, which is a much better conversion rate than we saw in Belgium. He scored plenty for Club Brugge, too, but wasn’t necessarily the most lethal finisher, and there have been some moments of fortune for Brentford – his opening goal against West Ham, for instance, which span viciously and improbably into the goal after an initial save, or his deflected strike into the roof of the net against Burnley.
That isn’t to say that Thiago scores goals because he is lucky, but to observe that his strength has generally been in the quality of the positions he gets himself into, not because of his technique. It’s also to suggest that he isn’t yet proven to be the kind of striker who will score 20 goals every season. That may well be the case, but it’s hard to know for certain after he missed almost the entirety of his debut season through injury.
What we can say for certain is that right now, the 24-year-old has clear weaknesses which would make him an awkward fit for some teams – especially in his passing and link-up play, which is sub-par for the Premier League and which explains why he has yet to register an assist, and his dribbling and technique. Only two players with at least 10 top-flight appearances this year have completed fewer carries with the ball. Admittedly, one of them is Erling Haaland, so clearly that isn’t a requisite to be an effective striker.
Indeed, Haaland is in many ways a rather useful comparison. Like Haaland, he won’t be effective dropping deep into the midfield and nor will he ply the channels and find space in wide areas. Thiago will stay central and score goals when given good service, but he needs to be served to succeed.
Can Spurs succeed with such a traditional centre-forward? That’s not yet clear. Frank has yet to settle into a tactical groove in North London – when Kolo Muani has played up front, he has generally lead the line in an appropriately central position, near the shoulder of the last man. When it’s Richarlison in that role, he tends to drop deeper in behind the wingers. The former system might suit Thiago, the latter likely wouldn’t. Thiago isn’t a number nine who would flourish in every system, and it’s not entirely clear whether Spurs would be an ideal home for him or not. Either way, would he even be available in 2026?
Will Spurs be able to sign Igor Thiago from Brentford?
The story connecting Tottenham Hotspur with Thiago has gone around the rumour mill a few times now, with a wide variety of print and online sources picking it up – but it originates with a social media post from ESPN Brasil journalist Felipe Silva, and that appears to be the only primary source for the story so far.
Silva claimed that Spurs and Aston Villa were both interested and had “made enquiries” while Brentford (who are said not to want to sell but to be expecting offers) would expect £70m for a player who has quickly become central to their gameplan. Later reporting from Caught Offside added Newcastle to the list of alleged suitors.
It’s mentioned that Brentford expected bids in January despite the fact that it’s highly improbable that Villa, who narrowly escaped a PSR sanction this summer, would be able to afford him. West Ham would be stretching their budget, as well. Spurs, however, could afford £70m as they have significant PSR headroom this season.
That makes it plausible from a financial point of view, even if it’s hard to credit Brentford as being willing to sell their leading goalscorer mid-season – and it would certainly be nice to have some corroboration from other sources who don’t also include Aston Villa, whose interest (in the short term) is considerably less plausible.
Realistically, this is a deal that would be more likely to take place next summer, but which time we have more evidence that Thiago is as good as his recent form suggests he is – or evidence to the contrary, of course. £70m is a lot to gamble on a forward who can’t be guaranteed to be a hit.
In any case, as it stands, there simply isn’t enough evidence from the media to suggest that a bid for Thiago is imminent. It’s possible, but there are far more reasons for such a deal to fall through than there are for it to take place, and there isn’t enough corroboration from reliable sources as yet be confident that it’s even a transfer that Spurs are likely to attempt to make. But they are, surely, going to bolster their attack in some way and if Thiago can indeed keep scoring goals, then the temptation to make an offer would be very understandable.