Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will De Zerbi tweak his methods to save Spurs from relegation?
- Do Arsenal’s title hopes rest on victory against Bournemouth?
- Are Man City beginning a classic spring winning streak?
- Are West Ham facing Wolves at just the wrong moment?
- Will the winner of Brentford v Everton mount a top-five challenge?
- Can in-form Brighton take control of the Europa League race?
- Will Fulham capitalise on Liverpool’s form and PSG distraction?
- Can Newcastle benefit from free midweeks and mount a European charge?
- Will Forest or Villa rediscover their pre-international break momentum?
- Are Leeds falling deeper into relegation trouble?
Will De Zerbi tweak his methods to save Spurs from relegation?
Tottenham Hotspur have have turned to Roberto De Zerbi, whose brand of adventurous attacking football marks a significant shift in style away from previous head coaches Igor Tudor and Thomas Frank and back towards – or maybe even beyond – Ange Postecoglou.
Any appointment at this stage of the campaign inevitably comes with risks and this one is no different. De Zerbi has recent experience of taking charge of a Premier League club after a season has started, arriving at Brighton & Hove Albion in 2022 with the club on four wins from their first six Premier League matches.
They didn’t win any of their opening five under De Zerbi, perhaps because of the seismic shift in training method and tactics. In an interview with The Telegraph in 2023 Brighton captain Lewis Dunk described the first couple of weeks under De Zerbi as “horrendous,” “baffling,” and “carnage.”
However, that does not mean De Zerbi and Spurs face the same fate. The new manager is likely to temper some of his more idiosyncratic methods given Spurs' predicament, possibly finding a more pragmatic or simplified way of playing to yield results faster.
His cause is helped by Sunderland losing each of their last three Premier League home games, although their decline in form in 2026 was mostly due to exhaustion, meaning Regis Le Bris’ team – who are also buoyed by beating rivals Newcastle United in their last match – may have benefitted more than most from the three-week break.
If Spurs can hit the ground running under De Zerbi they could quickly move clear of the drop zone and begin preparing for the long-term under the new manager. But if it’s a chaotic and end-to-end game at the Stadium Light, and if the result goes against them, Spurs will be under more pressure than ever.
Do Arsenal’s title hopes rest on victory against Bournemouth?
The early kick-off on Saturday is surely the weekend’s biggest game. It is no exaggeration to say that Arsenal’s Premier League title hopes could ultimately be decided here in what promises to be a sliding doors moment.
It barely feels plausible that Arsenal’s most recent Premier League match was the 2-0 victory over Everton, when Max Dowman scored that brilliant late goal. It feels like a lifetime ago, and indeed in the 28 days between the two league matches the mood regarding Arsenal has changed considerably.
Defeats in the EFL Cup and FA Cup had sparked talk of a wobble, giving fresh hope to Manchester City supporters. But as many Gunners fans have pointed out there was similar negativity from outside the club back in 2004 when Arsene Wenger’s side crashed out of the FA Cup and UEFA Champions League in consecutive matches – only for Arsenal to go on to become Invincibles.
So, there has been no great disaster yet; no genuine reason to fear that their nine-point lead in the title race is under threat. Mikel Arteta and his players will know that they can remain firmly in the driving seat.
But nerves are inevitable at this juncture and the tension will go through the roof should Arsenal fail to beat Bournemouth this weekend. Defeat would put the title race in Man City’s hands. Even a draw would feel like an enormous momentum swing.
It could well happen. Bournemouth are on an 11-game unbeaten run in the Premier League and have won two of their last three league games against Arsenal.
Are Man City beginning a classic spring winning streak?
What most stands out from Man City’s impressive victories against Arsenal in the EFL Cup final and Liverpool in the FA Cup is the tactical adjustments that Pep Guardiola has made to reinvigorate his side.
After a long season of trial and error there is a sense Man City have finally found the right formula. Bernardo Silva playing in a deeper role alongside Rodri has stabilised their central midfield and brought back control of possession, in turn creating space for Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki to play in the same side.
Without Champions League distraction, Man City may now feel ready to go on a typical spring run and win all of their final eight Premier League matches, a sequence that would then require Arsenal to avoid defeat in all of their six league games that aren’t against City.
It is doable, not least because Man City are always so strong around this time of year. They have won 28 of their last 31 Premier League games in April.
Add to that Erling Haaland’s return to form with a hat-trick in the FA Cup and Arsenal fans may begin to feel worried.
Chelsea’s certainly will. Liam Rosenior’s side have won just four of their last 11 matches in all competitions – and three of those were against EFL clubs in the FA Cup.
Are West Ham facing Wolves at just the wrong moment?
On paper, this is West Ham United’s most winnable remaining game, meaning they are presented with a golden opportunity to climb out of the relegation places on Saturday and heap pressure onto Nottingham Forest and Spurs, who both play on Sunday.
West Ham have lost only one of their last six home Premier League games and could be boosted by the return of Crysensio Summerville this weekend. Optimism is relatively high considering their league position.
However, the league table does not reflect Wolverhampton Wanderers' quality. They have only lost four of their last 13 matches in the Premier League and only Arsenal (11), Man City (11), and Brighton (12) have conceded fewer goals in that time than their 15.
Wolves have also won seven points from their last three matches. The timing of this fixture is very unfortunate for the hosts.
Will the winner of Brentford v Everton mount a top-five challenge?
As Chelsea and Liverpool struggle, there are two clubs emerging with an outside chance of qualifying for the Champions League. Both are locked on 46 points, just two shy of Chelsea, and they happen to be playing each other this weekend at the Gtech Community Stadium.
It’s a huge six-pointer – yet the form guide only points one way.
Brentford have drawn each of their last three Premier League games and won just one of their last six, suggesting they are beginning to decline towards the mean, whereas Everton’s momentum just keeps building.
Since Matchweek 19 in the Premier League only Arsenal (28) and Manchester United (26) have collected more points than Everton (21), who have won three of their last four matches in the competition.
Can in-form Brighton take control of the Europa League race?
Just four points separate seventh (a guaranteed European place) and 13th and the current leader of that pack, Brentford, are just three points behind Liverpool in what looks certain to be the fifth Champions League spot.
That means there are seven non-"Big Six" clubs who will all believe they can qualify for Europe this season and, with seven matches left, it means anyone who can put a serious run together will surely make it.
Brighton have two advantages in the race. The first is that they are already on said run, having won four of their last five Premier League matches. The second is that according to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), a Fantasy Premier League tool based on a complex algorithm that generates a rank for the perceived difficulty of a team's opponent, ranked from 1 (easy) to 5 (hard) – only Leeds United have an ‘easier’ set of games than Brighton.
Team Current position Points Ave. FDR per match Ave. points total of opponents Brentford 7th 46 3.4 46.1 Everton 8th 46 2.7 42.4 Fulham 9th 44 3.3 45.7 Brighton 10th 43 2.6 35.0 Sunderland 11th 43 2.7 40.3 Newcastle 12th 42 3.1 42.7 Bournemouth 13th 42 3.4 45.9
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
The FDRs say this weekend’s trip to Burnley is the simplest of the lot. Win at Turf Moor and Fabian Hurzeler’s side will believe they can go the distance.
Will Fulham capitalise on Liverpool’s form and PSG distraction?
Liverpool are also in danger of being dragged into that enormous middle tier of clubs vying for Europe, and certainly would be had they not begun the campaign with those five wins from five, characterised by late winners.
Since (and including) Matchweek 6, Liverpool have lost (10) more league games than they’ve won (9) and 11 clubs have won more points than their 34.
One of those clubs is Fulham, who are now only five points behind Arne Slot’s side and can close the gap rapidly with a famous win at Anfield.
The chances of that happening improve significantly with the game sandwiched between two legs of a Champions League quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain.
Tiredness could be a factor, as it has been throughout the season: Liverpool rank 19th for high-intensity pressures applied in the opponent’s half in the Premier League and 20th for high-intensity pressures applied in the middle third, 289 fewer than any other side.
But Liverpool cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. A place in the Champions League, or in Europe at all, is not guaranteed.
Can Newcastle benefit from free midweeks and mount a European charge?
The three-week break since the last round of Premier League matches could have a profound impact on any number of teams, but Newcastle fans will be the most hopeful of a positive change.
Certainly nobody needed the break quite like Newcastle did. Eddie Howe’s side have lost six of their last nine Premier League games, the joint-most of any side (along with Spurs) since the start of this run on 25 January.
It is widely acknowledged that the team struggled with the demands of juggling Premier League and Champions League football: Newcastle have won 13 points from 12 Premier League matches following a Champions League game (1.1 per game), compared with 29 points from their other 19 games (1.5).
That isn’t a problem anymore. Newcastle have almost a clean bill of health following the break and no longer have any midweek cup games to think about.
Howe is left with seven matches, and free midweeks, to focus solely on propelling Newcastle back up the table. The gap to fifth is only six points, so if Newcastle can go on a run – starting at Selhurst Park – it could yet be a successful domestic campaign.
Will Forest or Villa rediscover their pre-international break momentum?
On Sunday afternoon we find two clubs who very much did not need the break. In fact, there is a danger that momentum was halted.
Both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest enjoyed big wins three weeks ago, Villa getting their first in five Premier League matches and Forest their first in the competition under Vitor Pereira.
In the 3-0 win at Spurs it looked as though Pereira’s Forest had finally landed.
Villa’s return to form can be put down to their captain John McGinn coming back from injury. They have won 14 of their 23 Premier League games in which McGinn has started this season (61 per cent) and two of their eight when he has not (25 per cent).
Defeat for either could see all that good will evaporate.
Are Leeds falling deeper into relegation trouble?
The Monday night game looks ominous for the visitors.
Man Utd have won all five of their Premier League games at Old Trafford since Michael Carrick took charge and have taken 29 points since Christmas Day, a record bettered only by Arsenal (31).
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Meanwhile Leeds have failed to score in each of their last four Premier League games.
They remain very tough to break down – conceding just twice across those four matches – but nevertheless the four-point gap to 18th could easily shorten this weekend.
Of course, each challenge is also an opportunity. The rivalry between these clubs means that a victory for Leeds at Old Trafford could be the catalyst for survival.