UEFA Champions League stats lay bare damaging week for Premier League giants as Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur suffer big defeats

The Premier League endured a miserable week in the UEFA Champions League, with all six clubs failing to win the first legs of their last-16 ties. Heavy defeats for Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City have left their hopes hanging by a thread, while Liverpool and Newcastle United also face a fight to progress. New Opta projections paint a bleak picture - but history offers a sliver of hope.

Played six. Won none. Conceded 16. As UEFA Champions League weeks go, this was about as chastening as it can get for the Premier League elite.

Tottenham Hotspur were 4-0 down inside 22 minutes at Atletico Madrid, by which point stand-in boss Igor Tudor had already chosen to swap his goalkeepers.

Chelsea collapsed from 2-2 to a 5-2 defeat against European champions Paris Saint-Germain. Manchester City were ripped apart as Real Madrid rode Federico Valverde's first career hat-trick.

Liverpool were relieved to escape Istanbul with only a one-goal deficit after a defensive display to forget, while Arsenal and Newcastle United at least emerged with credible draws.

Remarkably, all six Premier League sides saw their chances of reaching the quarter-finals fall this week, according to Opta.

Team% chance of quarter-finals before first leg% chance of quarter-finals after first legArsenal86%78%Liverpool79%51%Newcastle39%32%Man City69%17%Chelsea52%7%Spurs40%3%

Arsenal (78%) remain strong favourites to progress. Liverpool (51%) now have effectively a coin flip against Galatasaray, while Newcastle (32%) are still in a respectable position despite Lamine Yamal's late penalty for Barcelona.

For the rest, the outlook is far bleaker - though not entirely hopeless.

"I think Arsenal go through, I think Liverpool will go through," said TNT Sports expert Steve McManaman.

"City have got a chance, I think Tottenham and Chelsea are gone. Newcastle have got a hard job in the Camp Nou."

Can Spurs, Chelsea or Man City pull off a miracle?

History offers only faint encouragement.

Of the 51 occasions where a side has trailed by three goals after the first leg, just four teams have successfully turned the tie around.

SeasonMatchFirst legSecond leg2003/04Deportivo La Coruna 5-4 AC Milan1-44-02016/17Barcelona 6-5 PSG0-46-12017/18Roma 4-4 Barcelona (Roma win on away goals)1-43-02018/19Liverpool 4-3 Barcelona 0-34-0

Chelsea will hope PSG's 'remontada' trauma still lingers, while they can also draw confidence from last summer's 3-0 win over the French champions in the FIFA Club World Cup final.

Joe Cole admitted Chelsea's chances are now "very unlikely" ahead of the return leg at Stamford Bridge next Tuesday - but insisted that "a lot can happen in football".

Spurs fans will not need reminding of that. Their own miracle came in the 2019 semi-finals, 24 hours after Liverpool's barmy comeback against Barcelona.

Already trailing 1-0 from the first leg against Ajax, Spurs conceded two more in Amsterdam - leaving them needing three goals in 45 minutes. Step forward, Lucas Moura, who delivered all three on one of the competition's most dramatic nights.

Why Man City have the best chance of a comeback

The numbers suggest City have the best chance of adding to that short comeback list.

Since 2018, they have won six Champions League knockout matches by three goals or more - comfortably the most of the three English sides facing a major deficit - including their 4-0 demolition of Real Madrid in the 2022/23 semi-final second leg.

TeamChampions League knockout games won by 3+ goalsMan City6Chelsea2Spurs1

The challenge, of course, is doing it against a side that does not need to chase the game.

"I think City have got a chance at the Etihad," said ex-City stopper and TNT Sports expert Joe Hart. "Of the teams who have got a three-goal deficit, City are the ones who have got the chance."

Real Madrid's own record offers some encouragement too. Since 2009, they have lost five Champions League knockout matches by three goals or more - more than Atletico Madrid (two) and PSG (one - yep, that game).

TeamChampions League knockout games lost by 3+ goalsReal Madrid5Atletico Madrid2PSG1

But with Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham back in training after missing the first leg, City will likely need something close to a historic performance to reach the last eight.

Who are the favourites to win the Champions League?

Elsewhere, Bayern Munich have overtaken Arsenal as the tournament favourites, with Opta giving them a 26.3% chance of lifting the trophy after their 6-1 mauling of Atalanta on Italian soil.

Arsenal (22.1%) remain the Premier League's best hope. The other five English clubs all sit below 5%. Only Atalanta have worse odds than Spurs, whose chances are rated at just 0.1%.

Team% chance of trophyBayern Munich26.3%Arsenal22.1%Barcelona12.1%PSG10.2%Real Madrid8.3%Atletico Madrid6.1%Liverpool4.6%Newcastle United2.6%Manchester City2.3%Bodo/Glimt2.2%Bayer Leverkusen1%Galatasaray0.9%Chelsea0.8%Sporting CP0.5%Tottenham Hotspur0.1%Atalanta0.0%

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