The warning signs that show it's crunch time already for Thomas Frank at Tottenham: Failing forward line, the stats that will set alarm bells ringing and why being 'ultra-safe' at Spurs is so dangerou

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Nobody is claiming lift-off but four goals for Tottenham against Copenhagen and the thrill of that Micky van de Ven solo effort lifted spirits.

'As a coach, I know it’s never as good or bad as you think,' Thomas Frank told Danish journalists afterwards, his way of offering positive crumbs to his compatriots while fully aware the maxim applied equally to his biggest win as Spurs boss.

Copenhagen were flimsy, easily beaten and Frank declined an invitation to look upon the emphatic result as a potential 'turning point'. Ever understated, he preferred to call it a 'step forward'.

No doubt he will hope one day to reflect upon it in more substantial terms, but three big games loom. First, at home against Manchester United on Saturday, then trips to Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain in the space of four days after the international break.

These are truer tests of his progress in 21 weeks since his move across London from Brentford. The fixture list has been relatively kind so far but is becoming tougher and the scrutiny will intensify. Has he got what it takes? Does he belong?

Frank has quickly forged the bedrock of his team. Spurs are stronger, more solid, organised. His back six are dug in, noticeably deeper. Van de Ven’s recovery pace has barely been required. Behind them, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario has been a beneficiary of the extra protection of an orthodox back four and two midfield screeners.

This would have been the first step for any coach taking over from Ange Postecoglou. See also Sean Dyche at Nottingham Forest.

More ticklish problems lie further forward, finding the balance in midfield and loosening the security to help the front four, which is why the hammering of Copenhagen brought such a relief. At last, forwards scored and made assists, and tanks of confidence were replenished.

But what did Frank learn? Has he stumbled upon the best set-up for his players? Quick wingers darting in behind, perfect for the vision of Xavi Simons. Brennan Johnson, last season’s top scorer and still the most reliable source of goals in the squad, back in his favoured role on the right. Wilson Odobert adding a goal to those flashes of promise. Randal Kolo Muani finding some rhythm and a competitive edge.

Or was it simply down to the quality of the opposition? Kolo Muani and Richarlison were indeed wasteful, not clinical. And what would have happened without Van de Ven’s sensational goal to puncture Copenhagen’s spirit, just as Spurs went down to 10 men?

And what of Mohammed Kudus? Signed for £54million and the most impressive of the forward options until now, Kudus missed Tuesday’s win with an injury. Is he ushered straight back in? Or will he have to wait until Johnson’s suspension kicks in in Paris? Any opposition full back turning up in N17 would be relieved if the Ghanaian doesn’t start.

Tottenham have a battery of forward options. Even discounting James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, both injured and yet to play this season, Frank has 10 to choose from plus Pape Matar Sarr, more readily categorised as a midfield runner but deployed as a No10 when required.

All are gifted and capable of brilliance. All too good for the likes of Copenhagen and Doncaster. All maddeningly inconsistent. All capable of mediocrity.

Frank is frantically tinkering. In his first 17 games he has used 13 different combinations of front four (including the 5-3-2 shape he used once, in the Super Cup against PSG) and never the same combination more than twice.

On the four occasions he has gone back to something he tried before, it has proved less successful second time around. It must be infuriating even for a coach who likes variety to conjure bespoke tactical plans for different opposition.

None of the candidates at centre forward have seized the role. Richarlison is 10 games without a goal after starting the season with a bang; Dominic Solanke troubled by an ankle injury since the first friendly of pre-season. Mathys Tel is not ready. Kolo Muani has been slow to get going having missed five games with a dead leg.

Frank can select various attacking quartets – most with combined transfer fees close to £200m – and Spurs still feel lightweight up front, leaving him reliant upon goals from rare sources. Centre half Van de Ven is the top scorer with six and there have been four own goals.

These account for more than a third of Tottenham’s 29 in all competitions this season, which plays to the theory that Frank is fundamentally defensive and has prompted parallels to be drawn with Nuno Espirito Santo’s brief tenure. Unimaginative, ultra-safe, overly concerned about the threat of opponents, too dependent upon set-pieces and counter attacking for goals.

On Sky Sports, Jamie Carragher was scathing of Tottenham’s lack of ambition against Chelsea. He also invited viewers to lump Frank in with the likes of Nuno, Sam Allardyce, David Moyes and Roy Hodgson, whom he argued had all failed to make the step up to the elite from mid-ranking Premier League clubs because of their style of play.

Frank, when asked, shrugged off those remarks with his usual good nature. Influential studio voices gushed about his work at Brentford. Just as they saluted his tactical flexibility when he started life at Spurs by taking Paris Saint-Germain to penalties in the UEFA Super Cup, whacking three past Burnley and winning at Manchester City.

Results steer the narrative but at certain clubs there is little room for manoeuvre if you don’t offer a sense of adventure. And Spurs rank highly among them. Perhaps that shouldn’t be the case. Perhaps they have an overinflated sense of their own importance considering they have won only four major trophies in 40 years.

But that’s how it is. The fans are proud of their history and the identity it instils. They want to see the team impose it, not go into games worrying about the opposition. Hence the anger from the home stands last week when Spurs lost to Chelsea and recorded an expected goals metric of just 0.1, their lowest on record since 'xG' floated into the Premier League in 2012.

It’s the reason they fell head over heels for Postecoglou, who freed them from the tactical shackles of Antonio Conte and ended the long wait for a trophy. But the frowning cavalier was sacked because his team defended poorly, especially from set-pieces, and flirted with the bottom three.

Frank was identified for his tactical acumen and reputation for developing players at Brentford, a club at such a financial disadvantage in the Premier League that they would not get far without setting out to stop the opposition.

And here we are, disappearing back into the same maze. Only this time without Daniel Levy and nobody is sure how Vivienne Lewis, other interested family members and their freshly hired executives will go about trying to solve it.

Will they give Frank time? At Brentford it took him years to layer flair on top of the defensive solidity he considered the priority to establish them in the Premier League. Worryingly, as the below graph shows, Spurs are actually over-performing their xG by more than any other side in the league, and would be expected to have scored about seven fewer goals so far. In simpler terms, they are not creating much and being bailed out by excellent finishing.

This process under Frank might be accelerated by a bigger budget at his disposal, although while Spurs are in a different world to Brentford, they do not spend on fees or wages like those at the top they expect to rival, and are in danger of being overtaken by ambitious upstarts such as Aston Villa and Newcastle.

Is any of this about to change significantly post-Levy? The £100m capital injection by the new regime in October will not go far. There are vague promises of more where that came from, but time will tell.

Frank, meanwhile, must start winning home games in the Premier League and convince the masses he is on track. George Graham, who survived for two and a half years as arguably the least popular Spurs boss of all time, did so by the mantra of winning his home games. That was when he knew his team was being judged and while there’s more football than ever on TV, his principles hold true.

Manchester United’s visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium delivers intriguing parallels. And not only for those searching for echoes of Nuno’s reign, which ended when Spurs lost 3-0 in the same fixture in the autumn of 2021.

There has been progress at United since Bilbao in May when Johnson’s scruffy goal condemned the club to a year without European football. That defeat gave Ruben Amorim a little extra time and space with which to continue sculpting his team, having beaten Frank to Bryan Mbeumo and added Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Sesko to the forward line.

In contrast to the continuity of Old Trafford, there has been five and a half months of upheaval at Spurs from the boardroom power shift, through the executive tier and a new coaching team.

Still, after their strikingly similar campaigns last season, the two teams are closely matched again. Both have won five of 10 in the Premier League, lost three and scored 17 goals. Spurs are two places higher because they have conceded eight fewer.

Stronger at the back. It’s a useful asset and an understated step forward. What happens next is the key.

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