What are Tottenham Hotspur's chances of relegation? Likelihood of drop doubles after Crystal Palace implosion

Are Tottenham Hotspur edging their way towards the Championship? Igor Tudor's side suffered a chastening 3-1 defeat at home to Crystal Palace, and they sit just a single point above West Ham and Nottingham Forest, clinging onto Premier League survival. According to Opta, their chances of being relegated double after the Palace loss, and Spurs have nine games left to avoid the drop.

The threat of relegation has become very real for Tottenham Hotspur in the latter half of the season, and a 3-1 implosion at home to Crystal Palace dramatically shortened their odds of facing the drop.

Coming off the back of a 2-1 defeat to Fulham and a 4-1 humbling at the hands of Arsenal, Spurs were only a point above Nottingham Forest in 17th.

But three Palace goals in the space of 12 minutes completely undid Spurs, who played more than half the match with 10 men after Micky van de Ven was sent off.

Igor Tudor's side have now gone 11 league games without a win, and after 29 games they have 29 points in total, meaning a dismal points per game ratio (PPG) of 1.

In the aftermath of defeat to Palace, Opta have now determined that Spurs' probability of relegation sits at 16.1%.

Spurs next face Liverpool in the league at Anfield, sandwiched between two intense Champions League ties with Atletico Madrid.

How Tottenham Hotspur became ‘worst team’ in Premier League as relegation fears grow

Pedro Porro fumes after substitution as Joe Hart questions ‘chaos’ at Tottenham Hotspur

How to watch and live stream Wolves v Liverpool in the Emirates FA Cup on TNT Sports and discovery+

Tudor was hired based on a track record of steering teams away from calamity and enacting short-term gains, but the logic behind his interim appointment has yet to come to fruition.

He managed to instantly improve Udinese, Lazio and Juventus in Serie A, but the Premier League is a different beast, and Spurs' players look completely bereft of confidence - as well as top-flight ability.

Before taking on Palace, Spurs were given an 8% chance of being relegated by Opta. Following that defeat, the figure doubled to 16.1%.

Statistics courtesy of Opta

TeamRelegation likelihood (%)Wolverhampton Wanderers99.9Burnley99.4West Ham United49.5Nottingham Forest26.9Tottenham Hotspur16.1Leeds United8.1

Spurs finished in 17th last season with 38 points. But at the same stage last year, after 29 games played, they had 34 points and the threat of relegation never really materialised.

This was, in large part, due to the poor form of Leicester City and Ipswich Town in 18th and 19th.

However, Forest and West Ham have both picked up points in their last five games this season as Spurs officially reached their worst point totals after 29 games of a Premier League season.

It is the first time they have had fewer than 30 points after 29 games played.

Their goals scored tally has also plummeted from last season. At this stage, the side under Ange Postecoglou had 55 goals in the league, compared to 39 this campaign.

They have only managed to concede three more than last year, but their poor goal scoring means a vastly inferior goal difference.

Statistics courtesy of Opta

SeasonTeamGamesWinsDrawsLossesGFGAGDPtsFinal Position2025-26Tottenham Hotspur2978143946-729-1993-94Tottenham Hotspur2979133639-330151997-98Tottenham Hotspur2986152644-1830142024-25Tottenham Hotspur291041555431234172007-08Tottenham Hotspur2998125447735112008-09Tottenham Hotspur29981235341358

What are Tottenham's remaining fixtures?

Spurs' woes are worsened by some tough matches in their remaining nine games, including trips to Anfield and Stamford Bridge.

There are pivotal 'six-point' clashes against fellow bottom-six teams Wolves, Forest, and Leeds.

Four of their remaining nine games are at home, where their record this season is much worse.

They have won just twice there all season for a PPG of 0.66, and it has been overwhelmingly disappointing at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Somehow they have produced better away from home, winning five matches and have a PPG of 1.35, with an even goal difference of 21 goals scored and conceded.

Playing crunch matches at home would usually be a boost, but in Spurs' case, the opposite seems to be true, and more matches away should be considered positive.

But who do they play, and when are the key matches against fellow relegation candidates?

Spurs' remaining fixtures

Liverpool (A), March 15

Nottingham Forest (H), March 22

Sunderland (A), April 12

Brighton (H), April 18

Wolves (A), April 25

Aston Villa (A) May 2

Leeds United (H), May 9

Chelsea (A), May 17

Everton (H), May 24

In those same fixtures last season, Spurs only came out on top in two games - Everton at home and Aston Villa at home.

Let us have a look at how their results from last season for those remaining fixtures fared, with Leeds and Sunderland excluded.

Statistics courtesy of Opta

DateTeamOpponentForAgainstVenueResult24-Aug-24Tottenham HotspurEverton40HW03-Nov-24Tottenham HotspurAston Villa41HW08-Dec-24Tottenham HotspurChelsea34HL13-Apr-25Tottenham HotspurWolverhampton Wanderers24AL21-Apr-25Tottenham HotspurNottingham Forest12HL27-Apr-25Tottenham HotspurLiverpool15AL25-May-25Tottenham HotspurBrighton and Hove Albion14HL

Visiting Liverpool, Villa and Chelsea will make this nine-game run immensely dangerous for Tudor's side.

The data conclusively points towards the fact that Spurs are embroiled in a relegation battle and if they continue to worsen, we may be seeing one of the league's biggest teams drop into the Championship.

The stats remain in favour of Wolves, Burnley, and West Ham dropping down, but whether Spurs can survive the next nine clashes remains to be seen.

Stream the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, UEFA Conference League, Men's and Women's FA Cup and more on TNT Sports and discovery+

Related Topics