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Premier League permutations: How Arsenal can win title, Tottenham relegate West Ham and Liverpool secure Champions League on Tuesday night

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Premier League permutations: How Arsenal can win title, Tottenham relegate West Ham and Liverpool secure Champions League on Tuesday night - Sky Sports
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The Premier League title race, relegation battle and Liverpool's Champions League place can be decided tonight, live on Sky Sports.

Bournemouth host title-chasing Manchester City at 7.30pm before Tottenham look to secure their top-flight status at London rivals Chelsea at 8.15pm, with major implications at both ends of the table.

Here's what can be settled tonight...

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The title race

Arsenal moved five points clear with victory over Burnley on Monday Night Football and it means Manchester City must win at Bournemouth to send the title race to the final day or the Gunners will be champions.

A draw isn't enough for City as they would be four points behind with one game left.

If Pep Guardiola's side win, they would then have to beat Aston Villa on Sunday and hope Arsenal don't win at Crystal Palace to snatch the title.

The race for Europe

Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Aston Villa have all confirmed their places in the Champions League and Liverpool will join them if Bournemouth lose tonight.

A draw also suits Liverpool as it would leave Bournemouth needing to win at Nottingham Forest on Sunday and Arne Slot's side to lose to Brentford with a six-goal swing in goal difference. However, it would mean Bournemouth only need a point on the final day to secure sixth, which could result in a Champions League place.

But a victory for Bournemouth would move them just a point behind Liverpool, guaranteeing at least sixth place and blowing the race for the fifth wide open.

If Aston Villa do not win the Europa League or don't finish fifth, then sixth and seventh in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League, and eighth will qualify for the Conference League.

If Aston Villa win the Europa League final on Wednesday and finish fifth in the Premier League, then the top six will all qualify for the Champions League, with seventh going into the Europa League and eighth qualifying for the Conference League.

So that means Chelsea still have a very slim chance of qualifying for the Champions League. They would need to win their final two matches and hope for a host of results to go their way, with Brighton and Brentford also still vying for sixth place.

Realistically, Chelsea are playing for seventh and can move a point behind Brighton, who currently occupy that place, with a victory tonight.

The relegation battle

Tottenham can secure their Premier League status and relegate West Ham with a victory at Chelsea.

A win would move Spurs five points clear of the bottom three with just one game remaining.

A draw would all but save Tottenham too. West Ham would need to beat Leeds on Sunday, hope Spurs lose to Everton and overturn a 13-goal swing in goal difference.

Put simply, West Ham need Tottenham to lose their final two matches to give them a chance of staying up on Sunday.

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Premier League permutations: How Arsenal can win title, Tottenham relegate West Ham and Liverpool secure Champions League on Tuesday night

Submitted by daniel on
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Premier League permutations: How Arsenal can win title, Tottenham relegate West Ham and Liverpool secure Champions League on Tuesday night - Sky Sports
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The Premier League title race, relegation battle and Liverpool's Champions League place can be decided tonight, live on Sky Sports.

Bournemouth host title-chasing Manchester City at 7.30pm before Tottenham look to secure their top-flight status at London rivals Chelsea at 8.15pm, with major implications at both ends of the table.

Here's what can be settled tonight...

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Not got Sky? Get Sky Sports or stream with no contract on NOW📺

Watch every remaining Premier League game live on Sky

Premier League fixtures & scores | FREE highlights▶️

The title race

Arsenal moved five points clear with victory over Burnley on Monday Night Football and it means Manchester City must win at Bournemouth to send the title race to the final day or the Gunners will be champions.

A draw isn't enough for City as they would be four points behind with one game left.

If Pep Guardiola's side win, they would then have to beat Aston Villa on Sunday and hope Arsenal don't win at Crystal Palace to snatch the title.

The race for Europe

Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Aston Villa have all confirmed their places in the Champions League and Liverpool will join them if Bournemouth lose tonight.

A draw also suits Liverpool as it would leave Bournemouth needing to win at Nottingham Forest on Sunday and Arne Slot's side to lose to Brentford with a six-goal swing in goal difference. However, it would mean Bournemouth only need a point on the final day to secure sixth, which could result in a Champions League place.

But a victory for Bournemouth would move them just a point behind Liverpool, guaranteeing at least sixth place and blowing the race for the fifth wide open.

If Aston Villa do not win the Europa League or don't finish fifth, then sixth and seventh in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League, and eighth will qualify for the Conference League.

If Aston Villa win the Europa League final on Wednesday and finish fifth in the Premier League, then the top six will all qualify for the Champions League, with seventh going into the Europa League and eighth qualifying for the Conference League.

So that means Chelsea still have a very slim chance of qualifying for the Champions League. They would need to win their final two matches and hope for a host of results to go their way, with Brighton and Brentford also still vying for sixth place.

Realistically, Chelsea are playing for seventh and can move a point behind Brighton, who currently occupy that place, with a victory tonight.

The relegation battle

Tottenham can secure their Premier League status and relegate West Ham with a victory at Chelsea.

A win would move Spurs five points clear of the bottom three with just one game remaining.

A draw would all but save Tottenham too. West Ham would need to beat Leeds on Sunday, hope Spurs lose to Everton and overturn a 13-goal swing in goal difference.

Put simply, West Ham need Tottenham to lose their final two matches to give them a chance of staying up on Sunday.

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Watch Chelsea vs Spurs: TV channel, live stream, NOW TV and score prediction

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Watch Chelsea vs Spurs: TV channel, live stream, NOW TV and score prediction - Sky Sports
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Chelsea host Tottenham Hotspur in a crucial Premier League London derby, live on Sky Sports.

Visitors Tottenham are 17th in the Premier League table, two points above 18th-placed West Ham. Spurs can secure their top-flight status with victory, while a draw will effectively be enough due to their vastly-superior goal difference over the Hammers.

Spurs are unbeaten in their last four league games to now be near safety.

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Chelsea are 10th in the table on 49 points and battling to secure any form of European football next season after losing the FA Cup final on Saturday.

The Blues are three points off eighth place, which would secure Conference League football, and a further point off a seventh-place Europa League spot.

The previous meeting between the two sides this season saw Chelsea beat Spurs 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in November.

When is Chelsea vs Spurs?

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League takes place on Tuesday May 19 at Stamford Bridge. Kick-off is 8.15pm UK and Ireland time.

How to watch Chelsea vs Spurs

TV: Sky Customers can watch on Sky Sports Premier League from 7pm

App: Sky Customers can also watch on the Sky Sports app

Stream: Non Sky Customers can stream the game with a NOW Day or a cancel-anytime Month pass

Online: Anyone on the move can follow live coverage of the game through our dedicated match blog

Highlights: Watch free Premier League highlights shortly after full-time

How to watch Chelsea vs Spurs with the Sky Sports app

Sky Sports Subscribers can:

Download or open the Sky Sports app

Head to the 'Watch' section at 7pm

Tap on the Sky Sports Premier League channel

Sign in with your Sky iD (*you'll only need to do this once)

*Sky iD help: How to find or create your Sky iD

What is NOW TV?

NOW is an instant streaming service offering access to all 12 Sky Sports channels, every Sky Sports+ stream, and much more.

It's an app, so customers can sign up and stream instantly across over 60 devices. It offers contract-free memberships options, so customers can cancel anytime!

You can choose between a Month or Day Memberships. See the latest NOW TV membership prices.

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Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

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Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out? - Sky Sports
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West Ham and Tottenham remain locked in a battle against relegation ahead of the final two rounds of Premier League fixtures. Which side will survive?

The London rivals are separated by two points in 18th and 17th respectively after Spurs could only draw with Leeds following West Ham's defeat against Arsenal.

With Nottingham Forest and Leeds having secured their survival, one of West Ham or Spurs is guaranteed to join relegated Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season.

Their next games could be pivotal, with West Ham away to Newcastle, live on Sky Sports on Sunday, before Spurs make the short trip to Chelsea, live on Sky Sports on Tuesday.

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Opta make Spurs strong favourites

According to Opta's predicted table, which factors hundreds of thousands of data points and is based on 10,000 simulations, Spurs are strong favourites to survive.

Opta give Spurs a relegation chance of only 19.54 per cent, compared to West Ham's 80.46 per cent chance.

The chart below shows how those chances have changed over the course of the campaign. At the start of the season, Spurs and West Ham were given 13.44 per cent and 21.73 per cent chances of relegation respectively.

West Ham's relegation probability climbed as high as 89.64 per cent in January, following a nine-game winless run. At that point, Spurs were 13 points ahead of the Hammers in the Premier League table, with a relegation chance of only 0.22 per cent.

Spurs, though, were in the early stages of a 15-game winless run at the time which caused their relegation probability to start steadily rising in the month of February.

It climbed above West Ham's for the first time in April but a major swing occurred earlier this month, when Spurs' form began to pick up under Roberto De Zerbi and West Ham suffered their back-to-back defeats against Brentford and Arsenal.

Opta now give Spurs an 'expected' final points total of 40, putting them just clear of West Ham's expected total of 39, and essentially predicting Spurs will survive by drawing both of their games, with the Hammers predicted to win one and lose one.

But don't Spurs have tougher games?

Both teams are preparing for difficult away trips next.

But history suggests St James' Park is a far happier hunting ground for West Ham than Stamford Bridge is for Spurs.

The Hammers, 3-1 winners against Newcastle at the London Stadium in November, have won two of their last four games at St James' Park, including last term's 2-0 victory. It is more than Spurs have managed at Stamford Bridge in the entire Premier League era.

Incredibly, Spurs' 3-1 win in April 2018 remains their only Premier League victory at Stamford Bridge in 33 attempts. Their three per cent win rate at Stamford Bridge is their lowest at any ground since the start of the Premier League era.

"I do think Tottenham have got the more difficult game," said Jamie Carragher on Monday Night Football. "Newcastle away won't be easy. But Chelsea away? We know the rivalry. Chelsea will be absolutely desperate to send Tottenham down."

Spurs can, however, take encouragement from Chelsea's dismal form. They ended a six-game losing streak by fighting back to draw 1-1 with Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday under interim boss Calum McFarlane but you have to go back to early March for their last win.

Newcastle, meanwhile, were on a similarly poor run before claiming a 3-1 win against Brighton then drawing 1-1 with Nottingham Forest. But Eddie Howe's side have nothing left to play for bar pride this season, whereas Chelsea need points to secure a European finish.

One positive for Spurs is that while they get an extended rest before the Chelsea game, the Blues have to juggle a potentially draining FA Cup final appearance against Manchester City four days earlier.

Spurs will aim to capitalise on any potential Chelsea fatigue, especially given they have what looks like a tougher final fixture than West Ham too. De Zerbi's side host 10th-placed Everton, who, like Chelsea, might still be fighting for a European place, while the Hammers come up against Leeds.

Daniel Farke's side are of course safe from the drop, although that didn't cause them to ease up against Spurs on Monday. "Leeds played a good game," De Zerbi told Sky Sports. "We hope they play like this against West Ham because it is right like this."

For Spurs, with the Everton game in mind, there is also the worry of their poor home form. Spurs haven't won at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 10 games, dating back to a 2-0 victory over Brentford in December. It's their longest winless home run since 1994.

Will the De Zerbi effect win out?

Spurs' failure to beat Leeds has left them with work to do but they have a two-point cushion on West Ham and superior goal difference too. There is also a sense, despite Monday's draw, that their performances are picking up as the Hammers lose momentum.

While West Ham have suffered back-to-back losses for the first time since January, Spurs are on their longest unbeaten run since October having not lost any of their last four games under De Zerbi.

The Italian's appointment has made a difference. "What De Zerbi has done is given them belief, because everybody knows he's a top coach," added Carragher. "He's what fans have been screaming out for. They want a plan, not just with the ball, without the ball."

De Zerbi has certainly provided that. Spurs continue to misfire in attack but defensively they are transformed. They have only conceded five goals in five games so far and a closer look at the numbers highlights the extent of their improvement.

Having ranked among the Premier League's worst sides defensively prior to De Zerbi's appointment, Spurs now rank as one of the best. They are in fact allowing fewer expected goals against and fewer shots on target than any other side since De Zerbi's arrival.

Could that solidity, and the strong performances of Antonin Kinsky in goal, give Spurs the edge for what lies ahead? Their two-point cushion and superior goal difference means two draws from their remaining games would likely be enough to keep them up. The odds are in their favour. But there could be more twists to come.

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