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Premier League Predictions and best bets: Liverpool to edge past Tottenham

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Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight as he hunts down the value in the markets.

Everton vs Chelsea, Sunday 2pm

The goal rush continues in the Premier League and, when the opportunity arises, backing goals at the right price is a sensible betting strategy. Over the past 49 games, the average goals per game has spiked significantly to 3.39 per game and over 2.5 goals bettors have successfully cashed in 70 per cent of games. Even the 1.5 goals line is being battered by goals, in that 44 of those 49 games have seen two or more goals scored. Even the three all-Premier League Carabao Cup ties on Wednesday night went over 2.5 goals.

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Chelsea's games are averaging 3.52 goals per game in the Premier League this season and the positivity at Goodison Park regarding the takeover of the club could lift the mood to help this game be played at a higher tempo.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks a tempting wager at Evens with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Fulham vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

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Can you name me a better left-back in the Premier League than Antonee Robinson? Hard isn't it. The rampaging Fulham defender offers so much going forward but is also a fantastic one-on-one defender who has quickly become Fulham's most important and consistent player. No player has made more successful open-play crosses in the Premier League this season and he can also boast that no player has made more overlapping runs in the league.

This is leading to him creating a high volume of chances for his team-mates - he has six assists this season, including two at Anfield last weekend. He's 100/30 with Sky Bet for another.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Leicester vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm

Vitor Pereira could be an engaging watch if his Sky Sports News interview when gunning for the Everton job is anything to go by. The Portuguese boss has a history of making instant impacts at clubs, too. On all eight occasions he's taken over a top-flight club, he's won that first game in the dugout.

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That new manager bounce, added to Leicester's ropey underlying numbers that point to big overperformance with their results, makes me want to back Wolves here with the 10/11 on the draw no bet standing out with Sky Bet.

Even the 13/8 on the nose for the away win makes appeal, especially if Mads Hermansen, City's star man this season in goal, doesn't recover from his groin issue.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Wolves draw no bet (10/11 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm

Bournemouth have posted the second highest number of shots in the Premier League this season (270) - and only Manchester City (282) have recorded more. This, along with their strong expected goals for numbers (32.96) which are the second highest in the league, shows Andoni Iraola's football is functioning very nicely from a chance creation point of view.

What is holding it back slightly is the quality of player in forward areas at his disposal, hence why the Cherries record such bulky shot numbers.

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A big underperformance in attack when assessing their actual goals return showcases them as a team that needs plenty of chances to find the net, so they are always interesting in the total shots market.

Bournemouth are averaging 16.5 shots per 90 this season and will hold no fear going to Old Trafford to play a team clearly still learning to tie their shoelaces under their manager. It's going to be a slow and long process for Ruben Amorim to get his philosophies across. Bournemouth to record 14 or more shots at 11/10 with Sky Bet is one of the best bets of the weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Bournemouth 14+ total match shots (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

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It's hard to argue with Liverpool being as short as 7/10 with Sky Bet here. It's the right price and I'm expecting them to make this a calm rather than chaotic affair. Arne Slot won't allow chaos to form in matches, he wants control and we've seen so many times this season the Liverpool way of taking the sting out of games at just the right time then being clinical when their chances come. Spurs won't be allowed to be Spurs if Liverpool get their way.

It doesn't put me off Dejan Kulusevski to come to this party again though. What a machine he is.

Since playing his new central attacking midfield role that allows him to roam dangerously all over the pitch and lead the Spurs press, his attacking output has become much more consistent than previous seasons. He's landed for punters backing him for a shot on target in 17 of his last 19 games across club and country and has scored eight times in that run, including four on the spin. His 10/11 shot on target price and 100/30 anytime odds are both of interest with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Jones Knows' best bets...

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Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou responds to Arne Slot's praise with Monty Python joke to Liverpool head coach

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Ange Postecoglou channelled the spirit of Monty Python to play down talk that he is inspiring fellow Premier League managers with his attacking style, following Liverpool boss Arne Slot's glowing praise of his methods.

On Friday, Slot said he hoped Postecoglou wins a trophy at Tottenham after the two sides were drawn together in the Carabao Cup semi-finals - meaning they will meet three times in the next two months starting with Sunday's Premier League clash live on Sky Sports.

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Asked for his response to Slot's comments, Postecoglou jokingly quoted from The Life of Brian, the 1979 Monty Python film, to initially brush off the kind words from his opposite number.

He laughed: "I'm not an evangelist. To quote Monty Python, I'm just a naughty little boy!

"[Slot's opinion] is what I love about football. There's got to be differences, people who are prepared to do things a little bit differently.

"There's that variety, that opinion and that allows emotion to come into it. I hate to think people think I'm just some kind of showman or something. I want to win.

"That's still the core of my being, I hate losing, I want to win and I want to be successful.

"I'm so driven by that on a daily basis and have been my whole career, but I feel if I can play in this manner and win, it makes an impact.

"We all want a little bit of a footprint and I want that to be mine. We were successful and won, but maybe in a little bit of a different way. I think that stays in people's consciousness a little bit longer.

"Will we ever get there? Some people will say we're a long way off it. Who knows, but I'm determined to bring success to this football club and do it in a manner which hopefully makes an impact."

The film references kept coming after Postecoglou was compared to Maximus from Gladiator, to which he replied: "Love the movie. Love Russell Crowe! Haven't seen the new one yet, but it's a great story. That's all I'll say about it, I've already got myself into trouble with Monty Python."

Slot: Spurs fans tell me they want us to play this way

Postecoglou has faced criticism from some Tottenham fans - some which he has admitted has been painful to here - at times for his refusal to change his tactics, with the club on a run of two wins from nine before seeing off Man Utd on Thursday night.

He has more widely hit out at "offensive" criticism of his methods and questioned whether his "silly accent" has played a part in some of that.

But ahead of Sunday's game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium he remained unapologetic for his style, having championed his philosophy long before Spurs picked him as the permanent successor to Antonio Conte in the summer of 2023.

"When I came in, I made it clear and I think the club knew what I was about," he said. "I wasn't coming in and doing anything I haven't done before.

"My impression is it's what the club wanted. Of course, they want to win things - everyone does. But they wanted to do it a certain way, and I was excited by that.

"Whether the supporters understand or appreciate that as a whole, I'm not sure but I get a sense from the Tottenham supporters I have contact with out and about, this is what they want.

"They want to win, but they want the team to be playing with this kind of intent.

"It's human nature these days - we get something, we want something more, that doesn't satisfy us. I just think whatever makes you happy, hold onto it and cherish it, embrace it.

"It doesn't have to be more. Appreciate something for what it is - but we've all got people like that in our lives. We've also got that uncle who says it's raining outside, even if you've just won the lottery. It's about your outlook on life."

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Tottenham vs Liverpool LIVE! Premier League match updates, news, score, stream and highlights

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Tottenham 3-6 Liverpool: Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz both score twice in Christmas classic to send Reds four points clear

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Liverpool moved four points clear at the top of the Premier League heading into Christmas after both Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah scored twice in a devastating 6-3 statement win at Tottenham on Super Sunday.

First-half goals from Diaz (23), Alexis Mac Allister (36) and Dominik Szoboszlai (45+1) put the Reds in full control, despite James Maddison (41) reducing the arrears.

Salah then took centre stage, set up both times by Szoboszlai for close-range finishes (54, 61), to put the game seemingly beyond doubt with half an hour still to play.

Dejan Kulusevski (72) and Dominic Solanke (83) responded to threaten the monster of all comebacks, but Diaz raced onto Salah's pass to complete a memorable victory for Arne Slot's side (85).

A tennis score at Tottenham means it's advantage Liverpool in the title race while Spurs sit 11th in the table.

As it happened: How Spurs' nightmare before Christmas unfolded

Teams | Match stats: Tennis score suits Slot

Live Premier League table | Watch PL highlights for free

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How Liverpool cemented Christmas No 1

It is the first time since 2020-21 Liverpool have sat top of the tree on December 25. They have only won the title in one of the last seven top-flight campaigns in which they've been top at Christmas - but the signs this year under Slot are ominous.

At the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, they ticked off another tough away assignment. They were confirmed as Christmas No 1 before kick-off following Chelsea's goalless draw at Everton earlier on Sunday.

After Diaz's strike in the corresponding fixture last season was infamously ruled out for offside, the Colombian would not be denied the opener this time by any VAR controversy.

Nothing but a good process from the moment Trent Alexander-Arnold opened his body and laid the ball on a plate for Diaz to head back across Fraser Forster into the far corner.

Sky Sports' Gary Neville said on commentary: "The cross is something else! It is absolutely perfect. There are very few players in Premier League history with that level of accuracy. De Bruyne, Beckham and Gerrard maybe."

It meant Spurs had conceded the opening goal in 14 different home games in the Premier League in 2024 - the joint-most ever by a team within a calendar year in the competition - and soon, Liverpool doubled their advantage.

Szoboszlai competed for the ball from Andrew Robertson's cross with it falling kindly for Mac Allister to direct his header in from close range for his first goal of the season.

The Argentine had gambled, but a burglary is never too far away when it comes to Mac Allister and Christmas. Referee Sam Barrott wouldn't come to his aid when Kulusevski dispossessed him for Maddison's well-placed shot to breathe hope into the hosts.

It would prove short-lived as, in keeping with Spurs' disregard for game state this season, they duly conceded a third before the break as Salah slipped in Szoboszlai for a composed finish.

The Hungarian would repay the favour for Salah - twice - after the restart only for Spurs to atone for those two concessions with two more goals of their own. Solanke's vision for Kulusevski's volley was sublime, and when the striker swept in Brennan Johnson's header back across goal, you just wondered what this Tottenham team were capable of doing next.

Diaz would ultimately add the final word having had the first, firing across Forster to end the madness. Twenty-one goals in Tottenham's last three games. Are you not entertained? But only one of these sides is on course to win the title in May.

Postecoglou: We won't change our approach

Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou:

"It was a difficult day for us and a painful result. Credit to Liverpool, they're a very good side, very settled. It was a bridge too far for us today. You could tell we lacked a bit of energy and the ability to compete with them at the same level.

"I've been really patient the last 18 months answering the same questions. We won't change our approach. I get the idea that people think that I should just flip the switch and it will miraculously make us a different team.

"I will just stay focussed in building this team in the way we want and we have to accept that their will be challenges along the way.

"The players are not wavering in their commitment to what we're trying to do. I'm not happy with where we are [in the table]. I'm not sure about pressure.

"I feel I am being judged, and all I can do is try to navigate us through a difficult period and ty to make sure that when we have a healthier squad and some key players back, that we can improve our position in the table. If you're saying that 10th means I'm not doing a good job and that I should feel uncomfortable, that is for others to judge."

Slot: If it was easy to win the league, every team would do it

Liverpool boss Arne Slot:

"The first 50-55 minutes is what you want, apart from the goal we conceded - 3-1 up and then it ended up being 5-1. We thought it was enough but Tottenham have far too much quality and they're able to create and score.

"In the games they've lost here against the bigger teams, they've been in the game. It was a really good performance from us apart from the 20 minutes we decided not to run anymore. That 15 minutes is maybe useful for us. It didn't hurt us today but in other moments, it's good.

"Against every team there's an opportunity. If they go for man for man, which they did for the first goal, then it needs one player to outplay the other and then you have an extra man.

"They have a very good idea about football. If you give them too much space then they will hurt you. I like what Ange does. He is at a club where they don't win that much in the last 15 to 20 years."

On being top of the league: "It tells you we are a very good team. Still three games to go until halfway but if you go here and play the game we did then it shows we are a hard team to beat. If it was easy to win the league then every team would do it."

Story of the match in stats...

Goals galore at Tottenham - Opta stats

This will be the 21st time Liverpool have been top of the English top-flight on Christmas Day; the most of any side. They've gone on to win the title in 11 of those previous 20 seasons (55%).

Nine goals is the joint-most that have been scored in a league fixture between Tottenham and Liverpool, along with a 7-2 win for Spurs in April 1963 and a 7-2 win for the Reds in October 1914.

Tottenham's Premier League matches under Ange Postecoglou have seen an average of 3.6 goals scored per game (both teams combined). Among those to take charge of 50+ games in the competition, this is the highest goals per game rate for any manager.

Tottenham have conceded the opening goal in 14 different home games in the Premier League in 2024; the joint-most ever by a team within a calendar year in the competition (also Crystal Palace in 2017, Ipswich and Spurs in 1994).

What's coming up in the Premier League?

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Tottenham vs Liverpool - Live match updates

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Tottenham 4-3 Manchester United highlights

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Carabao Cup quarter-finals: Why Man Utd and Tottenham will be eyeing League Cup glory

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Ahead of the final Carabao Cup quarter-final between Tottenham and Manchester United, Sky Sports' writers compile the reasons why each need a victory to continue their hopes of silverware.

Quarter-final draw and results

Wednesday December 18

Arsenal 3-2 Crystal Palace

Newcastle 3-1 Brentford

Southampton 1-2 Liverpool

Thursday December 19

Tottenham vs Manchester United - 8pm kick-off - live on Sky Sports Football and the Sky Sports app

Amorim can walk in the footsteps of his predecessors with Carabao Cup victory

Ruben Amorim has constantly reiterated the need for time and patience but like all fanbases, onlookers will start to grow restless in their desire to see their team lift silverware. It would be harsh to judge Amorim on his early trophy prospects having been named the United boss in November, however, it feels like a pressure that Amorim will want to embrace.

Erik ten Hag claimed the Carabao Cup at the first time of asking but was constantly questioned about the identity of his side, failing to instil a discernible style over his years at the club. Hoping to steer United into a new era, Amorim will perhaps be judged more on how quickly his team can adapt to his philosophy in the short to medium term rather than silverware but that does not mean the Carabao Cup presents an opportunity to begin his reign in the best way possible.

Jose Mourinho, a mentor for Amorim, also claimed the Carabao Cup in his first season at Old Trafford. A four-time winner of the competition, Mourinho recognised the importance of the first trophy win to set the tone for the season going forward. A win at Tottenham will give Amorim the chance to follow the tried and tested example of his predecessor.

William Bitibiri

Spurs must set up successful season with Man Utd win

Ange Postecoglou always wins silverware in his second season. How Tottenham fans would love that streak to continue and see their long wait for a trophy finally come to an end this term.

The Europa League and FA Cup are possibilities but this opportunity, to reach the Carabao Cup semi-finals with victory against a beatable Manchester United at home, cannot be passed up.

Spurs' thrashing of Southampton was timely, busting a five-game winless run. But a statement win at home - where they have gone four frustrating fixtures in a row without success - could shift the mood significantly back onto a more positive footing.

Of course, defeat could swing it the other way - and with Liverpool coming to town on Sunday, this is looking like it could be a defining week in terms of where Spurs' season is going.

Peter Smith

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