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Can edgy Spurs win be a turning point?

The goal was scrappy but it could prove to be one of the most important in Tottenham's Premier League history. They were staring a four-point deficit to West Ham in the face before Joao Palhinha poked home from close range to win the game at Wolves.

The three precious points - not only the first win under Roberto De Zerbi but Spurs' first of 2026 - came at a price. Dominic Solanke suffered a muscle injury. They will await the scans on Xavi Simons' knee problem that forced him from the field too. It is an issue.

Wolves 0-1 Spurs - Match report and highlights

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De Zerbi knows he is regarded as a potential saviour but he has been careful to stress throughout that players, not coaches, will dictate which division his Tottenham team are playing in next season. He has already lost Cristian Romero and Mohammed Kudus.

The Italian put a brave face on the injuries afterwards, pointing to an encouraging showing from Mathys Tel off the bench and highlighting his efforts to coax more from Randal Kolo Muani. It will be a confidence trick not a tactical triumph that saves Spurs.

"I hope this result can change something in our head, in our mentality." Because it was still a struggle at Molineux. They moved the ball too slowly, looked tentative throughout and brittle in the second half. This victory needs to be a turning point now, nevertheless.

Adam Bate

Saka's return boosts edgy Arsenal

Arsenal made hard work of their victory over Newcastle but they can take encouragement from Bukayo Saka's cameo from the bench. The 24-year-old only entered the pitch in the 81st minute but immediately made the hosts look better.

He fired a deflected effort wide within a minute of his introduction and continued to threaten during a nervy finale for the hosts. His performance, on his first appearance since the Carabao Cup final, suggests he is coming back stronger from his time out.

"Great," said Mikel Arteta when asked how it felt to have him back.

"I think he had a very good impact in the minutes that he played. He looks sharp, he looks good he looks fresh. You certainly notice something different in the team, in the stadium as well, when he comes in, so we certainly need that."

The downside for Arsenal is that his return coincided with a potential setback for Kai Havertz. Arteta described the issue that forced him off as a minor "niggle". The Arsenal boss is hopeful it's not serious. But Saka's return can help ease the concern.

Nick Wright

Pereira's bold Forest are thriving without the handbrake

A 5-0 demolition of Sunderland made it back-to-back statement wins for Nottingham Forest, who have now scored nine goals in their last two games and are cantering clear of relegation. The numbers alone are striking. The manner of them, even more so.

This is not a side playing within itself. This is a team unshackled.

Under Pereira, Forest have leaned into a philosophy that feels almost rebellious in a league where caution often reigns, especially away from home. Naming two strikers on the road, as he did at the Stadium of Light with Chris Wood and Igor Jesus is a throwback of sorts.

It's also a gamble. But it's one that paid off emphatically as Forest pressed relentlessly at an intensity that Sunderland couldn't handle.

In a league where fear can often dictate approach, as it did under Sean Dyche at Forest, Pereira's willingness to double down on aggression is refreshing.

Lewis Jones

Hammers must thank Moyes if they beat the drop

If West Ham do manage to stay up this season, then they will have former manager David Moyes to thank in many ways as it was the Scot who brought both Tomas Soucek and Jarrod Bowen to the club during his time in charge at the London Stadium.

Those two have been pivotal in trying to keep the Hammers in the Premier League and they were at it again in Saturday's vital, last-gasp 2-1 home win against Everton that kept them two points ahead of Tottenham in the drop zone.

It was Soucek who crucially opened the scoring from Bowen's corner, before somehow diverting Thierno Barry's seemingly goalbound strike on to the bar to preserve that slender lead with 12 minutes left to play.

And while Everton did level with just four minutes left to play, it was the skipper who then set up Callum Wilson for his injury-time winner that may end up keeping West Ham in the Premier League, with Nuno praising his opposite number after the game.

"I think David left a legacy here at the club," said the West Ham boss. "He brought success, he brought trophies. And he did it with Jarrod, with Tomas and some more that are still here in the squad."

Rich Morgan

Fortune favours Liverpool despite Salah injury

Mo Salah's injury overshadowed Liverpool's important victory over Crystal Palace and a long-awaited first Premier League goal at Anfield for Alexander Isak.

"Did anyone ever think we would say this eight or nine months ago?" said head coach Arne Slot on Isak's first-half strike.

The striker controlled Alexis Mac Allister's wayward shot before sending a bouncing strike over Dean Henderson. It was the type of opportunity that Liverpool haven't taken this season and a reminder of Isak's quality in front of goal.

Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace - report and highlights

Mo Salah injury threatens cruel unfinished ending at Liverpool

"Many times this season we've had better chances than we had today," said Slot. "That's why it's also important to have players that can also score goals like this, because that can give you a big lift."

Where might Liverpool be had Isak not missed so much of the season through injury? The victory has put them on the brink of qualifying for the Champions League at the end of a difficult, trophyless season.

Palace had more shots, big chances, corners and a higher xG total than Liverpool.

"The bad luck we've had many times this season, usually it ends up in us dropping points but not today," added Slot.

David Richardson

Silva lining for Fulham as Cottagers shake off end-of-season hoodoo

Fulham have developed a reputation for struggling to get over the line under Marco Silva, winning only four of 20 matches in April and May coming into Saturday's lunchtime kick-off with Aston Villa.

Make that five from 21. It wasn't pretty, it wasn't convincing, it wasn't even particularly deserved but there was plenty of endeavour and work-rate about Fulham's first win - and goal - in three matches to give them a significant boost in their hopes of qualifying for Europe.

Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa - Match report and highlights

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Silva himself bristled at the suggestion his players have been 'on the beach' at this time of year in previous seasons, asking one reporter in his press conference: "Did we look like we were on the beach today?"

Joao Palhinha poked in a late winner for Tottenham as they picked up their first Premier League victory of 2026 in a 1-0 win at Wolves that gives them hope of survival.

It was a dramatic finale at Molineux even after the substitute put Spurs in front as Everton equalised against West Ham to briefly lift Roberto De Zerbi's team out of the relegation zone before Callum Wilson's late winner for the Hammers muted the celebrations somewhat.

But it just made the three points even more important for Tottenham on an afternoon when they lost Dominic Solanke and Xavi Simons to injury. They remain two points behind West Ham but retain hopes of staying in the Premier League - thanks to Palhinha.

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Spurs started brightly but were able to create little of note in a first half that was played at a tempo that belied the urgency of their situation. Injuries to Solanke and then Simons, soon after missing a good chance, added to the nervousness from away fans inside the ground.

Wolves grew in confidence once news of West Ham's opener against Everton heaped the pressure on their tentative opponents and twice went close through Adam Armstrong. But the game turned on a corner that was well won by Mathys Tel.

Pedro Porro's ball in found Richarlison who was able to force it goalwards where fellow substitute Palhinha was waiting to stab home. There were still an awkward moments to endure when Antonin Kinsky dived to keep out Joao Gomes' 98th-minute free-kick.

But Spurs held on for a win that could yet prove to be a huge one in their history if it provides the turning point for them, a catalyst for staying in the Premier League. Without this win, they would be four adrift with four games to play. Finally, they have some hope.

More than a win, says Palhinha

Tottenham match-winner Joao Palhinha asked if this changes things for Spurs:

"I don't know, hopefully it changes, that's the reality, but this victory is much more than that. For me, for my team-mates and especially for all the club, for the supporters as well. It's not a normal season that we have been leading until today.

"We all have responsibility in this season, but the reality is we have four finals into the final of the league and we need to do our job and hopefully this win can change what happened in the past, give us a bit more motivation as well, because it's been a long time without victories. Especially in some of the games that we should have taken some more points, much more.

"I think it happened a lot, but sometimes it's the details. But what we can control right now is making our job until the end of the season and try to keep the club where it belongs, which is the Premier League, and it's much more than that.

"We all want to give something and we will give everything that we have until the end of the season, because it means a lot for us to keep the Premier League."

De Zerbi: I hope result can change mentality

Tottenham head coach Robert De Zerbi speaking in the press conference:

"In the first half, in the first 35 minutes, we played well. We didn't create big chances to score but anyway we had the control of the game, total control of the game.

"And then [in the second half], I don't know, the pressure, maybe that we didn't win any game in 2026, maybe this pressure, maybe because we played against Wolverhampton, [already] relegated, and we lost distances, we lost order on the pitch.

"I hope this result can change something in our head, in our mentality. And as for the other result, it's really very tough to win a game for us, if we put our head on the other teams, it becomes too tough."

He added: "The most important is the qualities of the players, and the human level of the players. It was a surprise for me, because I didn't know them, and when I knew better my players, I understood that we have the possibility, the chance to stay up.

"If you watch the game on the stand or TV, you can't understand if they have the right spirit, they have the right attitude, and [now] I work with them every day.

"All players are professional, good guys, they are suffering for this situation. [I want] to give them confidence and order on the pitch, because I didn't like the second half at all. We could play better, we have to play better, much better than the second half."

On the injuries to Solanke and Simons:

"Solanke is a muscular injury, I don't know what level of injury, and for Xavi it's a problem of the knee. We're going to see in the next days, Monday or Tuesday.

"For Solanke it's not a big problem, I don't know how many games we lose him, but I would like to know the situation of Xavi, because the knee is always different than the muscular injury.

"I spoke with him two minutes ago, he feels better than at the beginning of the injury."

On Kinsky's key save at the end:

"He deserves this day because he played very well, especially today, he was crucial for the result. He deserves everything, because he's a good guy, he's a good 'keeper, and especially after Madrid, he deserves one day like today."

Edwards defends team after latest defeat

Wolves boss Rob Edwards speaking in the press conference:

"It is not as easy as turning up and just beating Tottenham because they've been having a bad time. They've got a lot of good players and their motivation level is incredibly high.

"It might sound weird to you all, I don't know if you really fully appreciate what I'm saying. It's been really challenging this week for us, you know, officially relegated. It's been really tough. So, for the players to give everything and match their intensity and match Tottenham's levels of work rate, the lads deserve a lot of credit for that.

"I thought they were brilliant throughout the whole game, the supporters. I've not got a negative word to say about them at all. Like I said, we've lost three in a row, we're bottom of the league and were relegated this week. They're not going to be happy.

"But what I need everyone to understand is that everyone's giving their all. Everyone's giving their all and it's going to take some time to turn this around. We're not in the middle of a transfer window now. We can't change loads. We're trying.

"At the moment, times are tough. We've got to stand up, take it, and then hopefully in a year's time, we're sitting in a much more positive place.

"The situation is there's four more games left and we've got to make sure we turn up and we fight. Again, I looked around the room at the very end and went round every single one of them. There's not one there I could say gave up, didn't try. Not one of them. They gave their all today.

"It's hard because people don't want to hear it after we've lost, but there were some really good performances there today and there was a real commitment from all of them. There really was. They're really, really trying. They're with it. They're with us. They're fighting.

"It's been hard this week. The final nail in the coffin, relegated. Maybe other teams would have just gone under completely today and it might have been an absolute shambles.

"It wasn't that. It was a proper game of football, but we've lost it, so people say what they want to say about that. That's fine. But those boys that were out there today gave everything."

Story of the match in stats

What's coming up in the Premier League?

Joao Palhinha poked in a late winner for Tottenham as they picked up their first Premier League victory of 2026 in a 1-0 win at Wolves that gives them hope of survival.

It was a dramatic finale at Molineux even after the substitute put Spurs in front as Everton equalised against West Ham to briefly lift Roberto De Zerbi's team out of the relegation zone before Callum Wilson's late winner for the Hammers muted the celebrations somewhat.

But it just made the three points even more important for Tottenham on an afternoon when they lost Dominic Solanke and Xavi Simons to injury. They remain two points behind West Ham but retain hopes of staying in the Premier League - thanks to Palhinha.

As it happened | Teams | Stats

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Spurs started brightly but were able to create little of note in a first half that was played at a tempo that belied the urgency of their situation. Injuries to Solanke and then Simons, soon after missing a good chance, added to the nervousness from away fans inside the ground.

Wolves grew in confidence once news of West Ham's opener against Everton heaped the pressure on their tentative opponents and twice went close through Adam Armstrong. But the game turned on a corner that was well won by Mathys Tel.

Pedro Porro's ball in found Richarlison who was able to force it goalwards where fellow substitute Palhinha was waiting to stab home. There were still an awkward moments to endure when Antonin Kinsky dived to keep out Joao Gomes' 98th-minute free-kick.

But Spurs held on for a win that could yet prove to be a huge one in their history if it provides the turning point for them, a catalyst for staying in the Premier League. Without this win, they would be four adrift with four games to play. Finally, they have some hope.

More than a win, says Palhinha

Tottenham match-winner Joao Palhinha asked if this changes things for Spurs:

"I don't know, hopefully it changes, that's the reality, but this victory is much more than that. For me, for my team-mates and especially for all the club, for the supporters as well. It's not a normal season that we have been leading until today.

"We all have responsibility in this season, but the reality is we have four finals into the final of the league and we need to do our job and hopefully this win can change what happened in the past, give us a bit more motivation as well, because it's been a long time without victories. Especially in some of the games that we should have taken some more points, much more.

"I think it happened a lot, but sometimes it's the details. But what we can control right now is making our job until the end of the season and try to keep the club where it belongs, which is the Premier League, and it's much more than that.

"We all want to give something and we will give everything that we have until the end of the season, because it means a lot for us to keep the Premier League."

De Zerbi: I hope result can change mentality

Tottenham head coach Robert De Zerbi speaking in the press conference:

"In the first half, in the first 35 minutes, we played well. We didn't create big chances to score but anyway we had the control of the game, total control of the game.

"And then [in the second half], I don't know, the pressure, maybe that we didn't win any game in 2026, maybe this pressure, maybe because we played against Wolverhampton, [already] relegated, and we lost distances, we lost order on the pitch.

"I hope this result can change something in our head, in our mentality. And as for the other result, it's really very tough to win a game for us, if we put our head on the other teams, it becomes too tough."

He added: "The most important is the qualities of the players, and the human level of the players. It was a surprise for me, because I didn't know them, and when I knew better my players, I understood that we have the possibility, the chance to stay up.

"If you watch the game on the stand or TV, you can't understand if they have the right spirit, they have the right attitude, and [now] I work with them every day.

"All players are professional, good guys, they are suffering for this situation. [I want] to give them confidence and order on the pitch, because I didn't like the second half at all. We could play better, we have to play better, much better than the second half."

On the injuries to Solanke and Simons:

"Solanke is a muscular injury, I don't know what level of injury, and for Xavi it's a problem of the knee. We're going to see in the next days, Monday or Tuesday.

"For Solanke it's not a big problem, I don't know how many games we lose him, but I would like to know the situation of Xavi, because the knee is always different than the muscular injury.

"I spoke with him two minutes ago, he feels better than at the beginning of the injury."

On Kinsky's key save at the end:

"He deserves this day because he played very well, especially today, he was crucial for the result. He deserves everything, because he's a good guy, he's a good 'keeper, and especially after Madrid, he deserves one day like today."

Edwards defends team after latest defeat

Wolves boss Rob Edwards speaking in the press conference:

"It is not as easy as turning up and just beating Tottenham because they've been having a bad time. They've got a lot of good players and their motivation level is incredibly high.

"It might sound weird to you all, I don't know if you really fully appreciate what I'm saying. It's been really challenging this week for us, you know, officially relegated. It's been really tough. So, for the players to give everything and match their intensity and match Tottenham's levels of work rate, the lads deserve a lot of credit for that.

"I thought they were brilliant throughout the whole game, the supporters. I've not got a negative word to say about them at all. Like I said, we've lost three in a row, we're bottom of the league and were relegated this week. They're not going to be happy.

"But what I need everyone to understand is that everyone's giving their all. Everyone's giving their all and it's going to take some time to turn this around. We're not in the middle of a transfer window now. We can't change loads. We're trying.

"At the moment, times are tough. We've got to stand up, take it, and then hopefully in a year's time, we're sitting in a much more positive place.

"The situation is there's four more games left and we've got to make sure we turn up and we fight. Again, I looked around the room at the very end and went round every single one of them. There's not one there I could say gave up, didn't try. Not one of them. They gave their all today.

"It's hard because people don't want to hear it after we've lost, but there were some really good performances there today and there was a real commitment from all of them. There really was. They're really, really trying. They're with it. They're with us. They're fighting.

"It's been hard this week. The final nail in the coffin, relegated. Maybe other teams would have just gone under completely today and it might have been an absolute shambles.

"It wasn't that. It was a proper game of football, but we've lost it, so people say what they want to say about that. That's fine. But those boys that were out there today gave everything."

Story of the match in stats

What's coming up in the Premier League?

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Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi has refused to apply additional pressure to his squad as the threat of relegation looms but stressed the importance of a win at Wolves on Saturday.

Tottenham will enter another round of Premier League games, rooted in the relegation zone, two points adrift from 17th-place West Ham. Nottingham Forest are 16th but could go eight points clear of Spurs with a win at Sunderland on Friday Night Football, live on Sky.

While De Zerbi's side picked up their first point under the Italian in a home draw against Brighton, which they led on two occasions, Spurs are still waiting for their first league win of 2026. With five games remaining to play, De Zerbi says he hopes his team don't forget the situation they are in.

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"I don't want to put pressure but we have to know the situation," De Zerbi said. "We can't forget the table; we can't forget we need to win.

"What we have done until now is not enough. If we win at Wolves, it's not finished."

"There will be four games. We deserve to win games. I knew Brighton was one of the best teams in the league. After Chelsea, everyone understood. We played a good game but we were unlucky.

"It's not an easy game," he said about his side's trip to already-relegated Wolves.

"The last three at home, they drew with Arsenal, and won against Aston Villa and Liverpool.

"It's a tough game because they have nothing to lose. We have to be able to play, not too much pressure.

"My work is to prepare the game in my best way, but to play football. These players are very good players. They have important qualities, and they play without too many problems in their head."

Maddison to travel to Wolves but not ready to start

James Maddison will travel to Wolves with his team-mates but is still not ready to play matches, confirmed De Zerbi.

The England midfielder made a long-awaited return to the Spurs squad when he was named on the bench ahead of Tottenham's draw with Brighton.

Maddison hasn't featured for Spurs since pre-season, where he picked up an ACL injury. The 29-year-old also hasn't made a Premier League appearance for a year.

Asked about Maddison, De Zerbi said:

"Maddison is not available yet. He felt pain. Especially this week, he felt pain, but it's not a serious problem. Tomorrow, he's coming with us to the match, because he's important.

"If he plays or not, it doesn't matter. Better if he plays, for sure, but also as a guy, as a leader, as a positive guy inside my dressing room.

"I want to see nice people and positive people, and is also important for his team-mates."

Spurs will be without Destiny Udogie, Pape Sarr and Guglielmo Vicario, who have added to a lengthy injury list, including captain Cristian Romero, Mohamed Kudus and Dejan Kulusevski, among others.

"Destiny has a problem," De Zerbi said.

"I think he can't play tomorrow. He played a great first half and second half [vs Brighton]. But the first one was great.

"We have [Djed] Spence and Souza is available to come with us. I hope Udogie will be available for Villa Park.

"Not so important injury. It can happen. Udoigie is a crucial player for us."

De Zerbi added that Sarr will also not travel to Wolves but while Vicario also isn't available, he will return to the group from next Monday.

"Sarr felt pain in his shoulder," De Zerbi said, explaining Sarr's absence.

"This week, he didn't work with the group. He's not available. Vicario is not available. I hope he can start with me on Monday.

"Antonin [Kinsky] is playing really well. I hope Vicario can come back in the best physical condition. He's another important player for us."

Spurs to wear t-shirts in solidarity with Danso

Tottenham have confirmed they will wear t-shirts that say "Spurs against Racism" ahead of their crunch game at Wolves.

Spurs have made the announcement, taking a stance after Kevin Danso suffered from online racist abuse during their draw against Brighton last weekend.

The club say: "We want to make it clear to the world that if anyone thinks it's okay to racially abuse our players, we will take the strongest possible action."

In a statement, the club went on to outline the impact of their work against racism and online abuse. In Danso's case specifically, Spurs say they have reported all the content to the Metropolitan Police and appropriate authorities. This has led to the removal and banning of accounts.

Speaking about Danso in his press conference, De Zerbi said: "I was very annoyed about the abuse aimed at Kevin. He played a fantastic game. I don't consider one mistake so important. I consider the behaviour on the pitch.

"He will be here next season because he's a good guy. We are lucky to work with him."

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Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight across the weekend action and is tipping Wolves to send Tottenham closer to a remarkable relegation.

Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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Murillo is missing for Nottingham Forest for this one and looking at the last nine games he's missed in the Premier League, Forest's record is just one win from those nine. That includes draws with Leicester, Burnley and Wolves.

Although Sunderland are fancied here for the win, the form of Morgan Gibbs-White is helping Nottingham Forest in their survival bid. His shots data across the last 16 games is at a whopping 2.9 per 90, showcasing his influence in the attacking third.

Another £250,000 is on the line this weekend in Super 6 featuring the title race, the fight for Europe, relegation scrap and FA Cup semi-finals!

Only Burnley have conceded more shots from outside the box than Sunderland, who do also ship 1.4 shots on target from outside the box per 90. Gibbs-White has posted four shots on target from outside the box in his last nine games. All this points to his price of 15/8 with Sky Bet for another on target shot from range standing a great chance of landing.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Fulham vs Aston Villa, Saturday 12.30pm

There are spots in the Premier League calendar where trends can point you firmly in one direction. Fulham are generally well-drilled, tactically flexible under Marco Silva and capable of producing big moments at home. But there is a glaring late-season pattern emerging that's impossible to ignore.

Fulham's form across April and May has been nothing short of alarming. Just four wins from their last 20 Premier League matches at this stage of the season tells its own story. Whether it's physical drop-off, mental fatigue or simply the campaign fizzling out, the trend is consistent and, from a betting perspective, highly exploitable.

Aston Villa, still with lots to play for, look overpriced at 13/8 with Sky Bet for the away win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Aston Villa to win (13/8 with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!

All the focus for this game will naturally drift towards goals, scorers and the usual headline acts but digging into the foul markets throws up a price that looks badly out of line. Virgil van Dijk to commit a foul at 4/5 with Sky Bet just doesn't sit right when you line it up with the data.

He's chalked up 12 fouls across his last nine Premier League starts - not explosive numbers on the surface, but more than enough to suggest this price should be shorter not the outsider of the market.

Well over 200,000 Super 6 entrants are predicting a 2-1 win for Liverpool over Palace

Van Dijk isn't quite operating with the same calm authority we've come to expect. There's a touch more urgency in his defending right now. The decision-making isn't as clean, the timing not quite as precise.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

West Ham vs Everton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!

There's a nice narrative hook to this one - the David Moyes derby - but the betting angle sits firmly in the player card markets. This has all the makings of a tense, scrappy affair. Moyes teams don't tend to do exhibitions, they do structure, discipline and plenty of duels. That's exactly the kind of environment where cards come into play.

Jake O'Brien to be carded at 5/2 with Sky Bet looks big when you drill into what he's likely to be dealing with for 90 minutes.

Over 40 per cent of Super 6 players are backing a draw at the London Stadium, which may not be the best result for either side

Crysencio Summerville has been one of the most effective foul-drawers in the Premier League this season. Fourteen yellow cards won from opponents tells you everything - he's direct, he's aggressive with his running and, crucially, he forces defenders into decisions they don't want to make.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Wolves vs Tottenham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!

There are shocks. These happen on a weekly basis in football betting.

But then there are seismic, industry-rattling, jaw-on-the-floor moments that force you to recalibrate what you thought was possible. We're staring one right in the face.

With just five games to go, Tottenham, current European trophy holders, are now odds-on for relegation. The unthinkable is happening.

This is the fixture though that could just change it all. Wolves are what Tottenham could be soon: relegated. An easy three points then for the Londoners? Hardly. Not with this team who have shown an inability to deal with this pressurised situation.

Spurs at 8/11 with Sky Bet for the away win is the most easily swerved price of the season. Back Wolves, who have beaten Liverpool and Aston Villa recently at home and drew with Arsenal, in the double chance market at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Wolves double chance (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Manchester City vs Southampton, FA Cup semi-final, Saturday 5.15pm - PLAY SUPER 6!

This could be a great watch and end up being closer than what the odds imply.

Manchester City are 1/20 with Sky Bet to make the final. That is a price dripping with danger based on what this Southampton side are capable of.

An unbeaten run of 20 matches for the south coast side, which includes beating Fulham, Arsenal and Coventry, means Pep Guardiola's team will need to play somewhere near their best to win. The shock pays 15/2 with Sky Bet. It's worth a nibble.

Saints will play predominantly in transition and that makes the Man City cards line attractive.

The opposition have been shown two or more cards in 10 of Southampton's last 11 games to an average of 2.4 cards per game. City are 6/4 with Sky Bet to be shown over 1.5 cards (90 minutes only). That is a big price considering Southampton possess one the best card drawers around in Leo Scienza, who has been responsible for drawing 14 cards off the opposition this season in the Championship.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Southampton to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Southampton to qualify (15/2 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!

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If Arsenal are going to edge out Manchester City in the title race, it won't be because they suddenly outgun everyone in sight. It'll be built on their defensive process which remains about as good as it gets in European football.

Mikel Arteta's team have got to this level because of their structure, spacing and collective understanding without the ball. It's elite. They limit transitions, protect central areas and force opponents into low-quality chances. It's not always spectacular, but it's incredibly effective.

Over 85 per cent of Super 6 entrants are expecting Arsenal to beat Newcastle and return to the top of the table

Arsenal have shown a tendency to prioritise control over risk when the stakes are high. That naturally brings the tempo down and reduces the volume of chances at both ends. It's no coincidence that their recent numbers are pointing firmly in that direction. Across their last 12 matches, the average total goals sits at just 2.05.

Arsenal will want control, Newcastle will be happy to frustrate and neither side is likely to throw caution to the wind.

Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet stands out as the value angle.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Chelsea vs Leeds, FA Cup semi-final, Sunday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!

Opposing goals in matches at Wembley remains a sustainable long-term betting strategy. It might be the mecca of English football - to play there is every footballer's dream - but I'm convinced the place saps the momentum out of a game.

Maybe the jeopardy of what is at stake plays a part, which in turn leads to low-scoring matches, but I think games there rarely spark into life. The numbers remain damning and provide hard evidence that Wembley is a place to back low scores.

And, the under goals theory in matches at Wembley is certainly at play in this game.

Across the last 51 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per game is at 1.9 and 92 per cent of those games have landed for under 3.5 goal backers which is a 4/11 shot here and is a great starting point for those planning on building something via the BuildABet function.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Manchester United vs Brentford, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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There's usually a sweet spot in the fouls market where role, match-up and price collide and this looks like one of them.

Michael Kayode to commit two or more fouls at 9/4 with Sky Bet makes plenty of appeal when you break down what he's walking into here.

His direct opponent is Matheus Cunha and he's exactly the type of forward who drags defenders into trouble. Cunha is averaging two fouls drawn per game this season, built on sharp movement, close control and a willingness to go down under contact.

Kayode made two fouls in the reverse fixture so at 9/4, you're effectively betting on a repeat of a scenario we've already seen.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Jones Knows best bet: