Tottenham: 'Club's future on the line' against Nottingham Forest as Spurs look to build on their fragile foundation
"Sunday is one of the biggest games Tottenham have played. This is the club's future on the line."
Paul Merson is well aware of how significant Tottenham's game against Nottingham Forest is for their chances of survival in the Premier League. Igor Tudor and his squad know it too.
Two sides separated by one point, hovering above the relegation zone, with the threat of dropping into the second tier looming large over clubs who should be pillars of the top-flight.
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Why is the game so important?
"If they get relegated, I don't know if they are coming back. Everyone will want to beat Tottenham," Merson continued while speaking on The Premier League Show.
"I put this game as big as the European game against Manchester United [last May]."
A total of 20 defeats across all competitions have followed since that famous night in Bilbao, with 14 of them in the league. A dangerous spiral, which has now converted relegation fears into a harsh reality.
A win for Forest would mean they leapfrog Spurs in the table and if West Ham win at Aston Villa, the Europa League holders would drop into the bottom three.
The odds of the unthinkable for Spurs currently sit at 12.3 per cent with Opta's supercomputer, following previous highs of 18 per cent before Tudor's Tottenham showed signs of taking shape.
For the first time in a long time, Spurs have a foundation to build on and a chance to create some breathing room.
Richarlison's late equaliser to rescue a point at Anfield and a spirited performance to beat Atletico in the Champions League in midweek, albeit not enough to progress to the quarter-finals, have sparked a degree of hope and optimism from the stands at a pivotal time in their season.
A first win for Tudor on Wednesday and only their second taste of victory since the New Year is a timely boost, but the club will now be tasked with carrying that fragile momentum into what can only be described as a cup final-calibre game.
Can the home crowd have an impact again?
The stadium played a major role in the win on Wednesday. The home crowd rallied behind their players and the injury-laden squad responded to it.
Randal Kolo Muani took his chance well, Mathys Tel threatened throughout, Radu Dragusin looked solid on his first Champions League outing for the team and Xavi Simons looked confident both on the ball and in front of goal.
"I believe the supporters were proud of the team even if we are out," said Tudor after their European exit. "We hope this continues on Sunday because we need them for an important game."
Players responded to the reception and they need to feed off their supporters more than ever against Forest. This, coupled with performances that suggest Spurs can overcome pressure and scrutiny, can inspire on the day.
Coming off six defeats in a row, including the humiliating 5-2 loss to Atletico in the first leg of their European tie, no one expected them to take points from Liverpool. Even less expected was a comeback draw against Manchester City earlier in February - but Forest also did that.
Spurs come into the game against Forest, live on Sky Sports, as favourites to take three points and anything less should be deemed unacceptable in what could prove to be a decisive game in the battle for survival.
A dismal home record in the Premier League, the worst out of all 20 teams after winning just two games and taking 10 points this season, will need to be swept aside.
A poor record against teams currently in the bottom half of the table adds to that pressure. In those 13 games, Spurs have the fourth-lowest points per game tally at just 1.23, winning four, drawing four and losing five.
Losses to Crystal Palace, Fulham, West Ham and Forest, as well as draws against Burnley and Sunderland, are included in that list but Sunday's game is not one they can afford to add to it.
To defy what their record and the numbers suggest, Spurs need the crowd.
Aside from the crowd, what else will boost Spurs?
Selection headaches are a problem for most managers but a welcome and new one for a Spurs boss to encounter.
The injury problems at the club have been well documented, an issue that has transcended both seasons and head coaches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
But those problems are easing for Tudor and for the first time since his appointment on February 14, he now has options to turn to.
Lucas Bergvall, Destiny Udogie and Cristian Romero all returned for the win against Atletico.
Romero started the fixture after recovering from concussion, while the remaining two players appeared off the bench. Conor Gallagher was also able to feature in the latter stages after recovering from illness.
Tudor has stumbled across success with the 4-4-2 formation, rooted by the budding partnership of Archie Gray and Pape Matar Sarr in midfield.
With Micky van de Ven and Romero at the heart of the defence and Dominic Solanke potentially returning from a small problem that kept him out against Atletico, Spurs have the makings of a spine to a team that has largely been spineless throughout a troubled season.
The foundation Spurs' small resurgence has been built on
The previously noted resurgence in the last two games contained changes at centre back, up front and out wide - but there was one constant outfield. The partnership of Gray and Sarr in the middle of the park.
Despite Gallagher and Bergvall returning, you would expect to see the same duo of Gray and Sarr on Sunday.
The former was given a standing ovation from the home crowd on Wednesday and Atletico midfielder Marcus Llorente echoed that statement after running over to Gray to shake his hand following his outstanding performance against a notoriously tricky side.
The 20-year-old recorded 57 touches, a passing accuracy of 88 per cent, one assist and two chances created on the night. It was an all-encompassing display that justifies the £40m the club parted with to sign him from Leeds United in 2024.
Sarr followed closely as his partner in midfield with added defensive support, making two clearances, two blocks, three interceptions and one tackle. A complimentary duo which fans should expect and want to see more of.
Often used out of position as a means of easing the strains crippling the squad, Gray is now shining in his favoured position and his head coach is taking notice of the partnership forming with Sarr.
"He's a guy, you know the positions he plays everywhere, so probably this position in the middle is, I believe, the best one for him," Tudor said.
"But he's playing continually in the right way, in a good way. It's a mix of quality, physically and mentally, to always make the right choices and be humble and have legs to do so.
"He needs to continue this; he's still young, so every day he needs a new confirmation [of what he can do].
"Together with Pape, I see them very well; there's a quality between these two players. The last two games, they really made a difference."
The foundation is fragile but Spurs cannot afford to squander the opportunity to build on it.
A six-pointer, must-win, 'cup final' or crucial game. However you want to describe it, three points is the only sufficient outcome for a team that should never have found themselves in this position anyway.
