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Live Commentary - Spurs vs Man Utd

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Live Commentary - Spurs vs Man Utd

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Tottenham vs Manchester United: Europa League final is win or bust for Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou in Bilbao

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Tottenham vs Manchester United: Europa League final is win or bust for Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou in Bilbao - Sky Sports
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"I always win things in my second year."

Eight months on, Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou remains on course to deliver on his bold promise.

His claim came after September's 1-0 home defeat to north London rivals Arsenal - one of the 21 club-record losses in the Premier League this season.

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Friday's 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa leaves them a dismal 17th in the table, while it was the 25th time they had been beaten in all competitions this season - the joint-highest in a single campaign in their history (level with 1991/92).

But bizarrely, this season might still be deemed a success.

The Europa League final against Manchester United in Bilbao offers Postecoglou the chance to not only make good on his silverware guarantee but end Tottenham's 17-year trophy drought and secure Champions League qualification.

That achievement juxtaposed with Spurs' worst Premier League campaign would present the club's hierarchy with a real conundrum over Postecoglou's future.

"It would give [Tottenham chairman] Daniel Levy probably one of the biggest decisions of his life, because would you keep him? Or would you sack him?", ex-Tottenham midfielder Jamie Redknapp told Sky Sports.

"Part of you is looking at the Premier League form and going, 'How can I keep him?' because it's been diabolical.

"But if he wins a European trophy - and these Spurs fans have been crying out for a trophy for so long - I think it would make it really difficult to sack him from that perspective.

"If they win a cup, that's like hero status."

Van de Ven: Everybody's stayed behind Ange

But such is Postecoglou's knife-edge predicament, he could so easily become a villain.

The noise around the 59-year-old, though, has been shut out by his players on their road to the final.

Spurs defender Micky van de Ven told Sky Sports: "Everybody in the media were doubting us, and were doubting the manager, but inside here everybody kept believing, everybody knew the quality we had, and everybody stayed behind the gaffer.

"I think that's made us a really tight group, and hopefully we can end this season strongly and perfectly with lifting a trophy."

Redknapp believes Europa League glory would make up for their abysmal Premier League season.

"There's an argument to say they'd rather win a cup than finish fifth, and I agree with that," he said.

"And we all go, 'It's wrong' but I don't look back and say 'Remember that year we came fifth, it was brilliant', you look back and think, 'I won a trophy' - that's the best time of your life.

"For Tottenham, this is an opportunity to change the narrative and the history of the club.

"If they win a cup this year, we will forget about that league position, it will be irrelevant because all the celebration will be off the back of that."

'Photos of us on the stadium walls if we win'

Glory in Bilbao would be Spurs' first European silverware in 41 years - and the prospect of such an historic achievement is not lost on goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario.

He told Sky Sports: "I don't know how many times during a career this [a European final] can happen, so it's a big opportunity for us players and for everyone involved in this football club, for the fans.

"We have this desire to bring the trophy here because for us it would mean we'd be in the history of this football club, we'd be on the photos of the wall inside the stadium, so it's something we'll look forward to try to do."

The club's all-time top goalscorer, Harry Kane, is already on those walls despite not winning silverware at the club. But he recently broke his trophy duck at Bayern Munich, tasting Bundesliga success.

There have also been trophy droughts ended by several clubs across Europe this season - Crystal Palace won the FA Cup to secure their first ever major trophy, Newcastle's Carabao Cup success ended 56 years without silverware, and Bologna lifted the Coppa Italia to end their 51-year wait.

Tottenham can now become the next club to end their trophy hoodoo.

Van de Ven said: "Everybody talks about Spurs winning trophies or not, but you say that's a 'Spursy' thing. It's also a big thing to change that, but the most important part is that we are the guys that can change everything for this club and the long drought for no trophy."

Can Spurs avoid another final-hurdle failure?

The Dutchman's mention of the 'Spursy' tag will send shivers up the spine of Tottenham fans.

There have been several near misses since that 2008 Carling Cup win: three League Cup final defeats, a runners-up Premier League finish and a Champions League final loss in 2019.

For Sky Sports' Roy Keane, these agonising final-hurdle failures are what give his former club Manchester United the edge in Spain.

"I think the history of Man Utd carries a little bit of weight," he said. "If you look at the league performances, then there's not much between them, they've both been desperate, but I just think come the crunch, United's history in finals and even winning a few cups in the last few years you'd like to think they have a bit more knowledge around the big game more than Spurs.

"I'm not sitting here confident Man Utd are going to win, but I think that might just edge it for them."

Defeat to Man Utd would feel even more 'Spursy' considering their strong recent record against the Red Devils.

Postecoglou's side have beaten them three times this season, while Tottenham are undefeated in their last six games in all competitions against Man Utd.

"This is the past. We cannot look back at the past," insisted Vicario.

So what type of final is the Italian expecting at the San Mames?

"It's about a game of details, of moments," he said. "It will be a very tight game, so it's about understanding and trying to not make mistakes, because the team that has the right mindset and the right discipline to make less mistakes than the other will lift this trophy.

"It's a game to be focused for 90 minutes or 120 minutes, whatever it takes to lift the trophy."

Redknapp has called it a "50/50" game as Postecoglou's high-wire act all comes to its conclusion on Wednesday night.

It really is Bilbao or bust for the Australian.

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Spurs have beaten Man Utd three times but it might not matter in Europa League final - Reporter's Notebook

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Spurs have beaten Man Utd three times but it might not matter in Europa League final - Reporter's Notebook - Sky Sports
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"Every game has its history…"

Manchester United boss Ruben Amorim said these words when asked about the prospect of playing Tottenham in the Europa League final - a team that has beaten the Red Devils three times already this season.

But the question is, will their recent history matter when it comes to who wins the trophy - and that crucial Champions League place?

Sky Sports News reporter Danyal Khan looks back at the previous games between the two sides this season and wonders what can be learned from them.

Europa League final - Spurs vs Man Utd live updates

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Spurs domination was another Ten Hag nightmare

Perhaps the performance Spurs will take the most encouragement from is their first of the season against United, an utterly dominant 3-0 win at Old Trafford in September to put even more pressure on United's former manager Erik ten Hag.

The game is evidence of why Ange Postecoglou is wrapping Micky van de Ven in cotton wool ahead of the final.

Van de Ven was not just defensively impressive in this game, as he typically is, he also carried the ball over half the length of the Old Trafford pitch to set up Brennan Johnson for their opening goal in the third minute.

The game then was seemingly over at the end of the first half when Bruno Fernandes was sent off - a red card that was later overturned through appeal.

But this is a different United side. Although you cannot suggest their position in the Premier League of 16th is evidence they have moved forward under Ruben Amorim, they do look better defensively, they concede fewer chances, and have shown in these big European nights that they can be a threat going forward, more so anyway, then under Ten Hag.

A fun cup tie - that we didn't learn much from

The second time these two sides met was in the Carabao Cup quarter finals in December - a fun encounter that Postecoglou's Spurs won once again, this time 4-3, with Amorim having taken over from Ten Hag.

But when you look at lessons both sides could take to the final, it is challenging when you consider the context around it.

First of all you look at the make-up of both sides. Spurs had Archie Gray and Radu Dragusin making up their centre-back partnership, with Fraser Forster in goal. Spurs' main three at the back of goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and defenders Van de Ven and Cristian Romero were all injured.

For United, again, a side that will be much changed for the final with Altay Bayindir starting in goal, Lisandro Martinez, who is out for the remainder of the season, as well as Antony, who is now starring for Real Betis in Spain, also featured.

On this occasion, although Spurs were injury-hit and did well to progress, Amorim also took a calculated risk to heavily rotate many of his first-team players. It did not work out as they lost their next three games in the Premier League as well.

Maddison winner settles most recent meeting

February was the last time these two sides met and Spurs won 1-0 but I don't think Amorim will look back at this game too closely.

That's partly because the goal United conceded was a poor one. Andre Onana should have done much better to palm away a Lucas Bergvall shot, which ended up leaving James Maddison with a comfortable finish right in front of goal.

Amorim had very limited opportunities to change the game when you look at the squad he had to pick from at that moment. It was an injury-ravaged United side. Victor Lindelof was the only substitute who had any sort of Premier League experience.

Spurs had injuries too, with Kevin Danso and Ben Davies their centre-back pairing, two players who again are not likely to start in the final, while Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski also started but will play no part on Wednesday due to injury.

So what have we learned?

Not much, really!

Spurs will take confidence despite the circumstances. When they have taken on Untied this season, they have been able to pull out performances and perhaps more importantly, results.

Dominic Solanke has three goals in three meetings against United too, which may give him that extra edge against their opponents in the final.

Asked about facing a side who have beaten United three times, Amorim said: "If you look at the odds, we are closer to winning than losing. Both teams will play like all or nothing."

Those last three words perfectly describe Manchester United in Europe this season: all or nothing.

United looked like they'd be out of the competition when they were 4-2 down at Old Trafford against Lyon in the quarter-finals but they miraculously came back.

In the semi-finals, as I travelled to Bilbao for their tie against Athletic Club, most pundits and fans alike would have thought a draw away to a team who had lost just once in LaLiga since August at home would have been sufficient

Man Utd won 3-0 in San Mames and 7-1 on aggregate.

We also have to consider the tactical tweaks Amorim has made since the two sides last met in February.

In the most important games, he has now settled on a midfield duo of Casemiro and Manuel Ugarte.

The Brazilian especially has become revitalised under Amorim in recent months.

Amorim told me this has been mainly down to Casemiro working on his own fitness as well as the United boss tweaking the way they press, more so with their wing-backs going high, enabling Casemiro to stay in front of the defence and not be caught out on transition.

Amorim and the players have spoken about how the physicality levels of European opponents are more suited to the players, which does pose the question of how they will deal with a physical Spurs side who will look to impose themselves as they have done in this season's previous meetings.

But United have been illogical and unpredictable when it comes to the Europa League this season. When you consider all of the circumstances of their previous meetings with Spurs, it is clear that they won't have much relevance.

Wednesday's game is a different proposition for both sides.

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Spurs vs Manchester United predictions & best bets: Back fouls in edgy Europa League final

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Spurs vs Manchester United predictions & best bets: Back fouls in edgy Europa League final - Sky Sports
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Our betting expert Jones Knows previews the Europa League final and outlines where the value lies as Spurs and Manchester United look to save their seasons.

Spurs vs Manchester United, Europa League final, Wednesday 8pm

This is a beautifully grotesque final. Both teams are balancing on the highwire with no safety net below them.

We can get carried away with overdramatising the outcomes of football matches but this one truly is huge, especially for Tottenham, who have one game to decide whether it's been their best or worst season for many years. It's a ridiculous situation, really.

Ange Postecoglou: Trophy win could be turning point for Spurs

How much is qualifying for the Champions League worth?

Manchester United are slight favourites with Sky Bet at 4/5 to lift the trophy with Spurs at 10/11. The 90-minute odds have United at 7/4 and Spurs at 29/20.

It's a 50-50 spin of the Roulette wheel. White or red. Heads or tails.

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I'm very confused about this game from a betting perspective.

These two teams have been completely different in the Europa League compared to their Premier League form. And usually you'd put more weight in the domestic form to gauge a true ability of a team, especially in this spot as this is an all-Premier League final. But I'm very torn.

United can't score in the Premier League, averaging just 1.14 goals per 90 minutes and have scored just five goals in their last eight games. But look at their Europa League form.

They have averaged 2.5 goals per game this season, scoring a whopping 19 goals in their six games with Real Sociedad, Lyon and Athletic Club in the knockouts.

And then we have Spurs, who are equally as confusing to analyse. As they are a completely different team to their overall form of this Premier League season when their first-choice back five plays under Ange Postecoglou. The difference is simply huge.

When Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie all play under Postecoglou, they have won 18 of those 30 games, losing just six times.

If you were converting that to points per game - that's two per game. If you translate that over the course of a Premier League season of 38 games, you get 76 points, which would be enough to finish a clear second in the Premier League this season. There is a really good side lurking there.

Why Man Utd or Tottenham winning the Europa League could be a curse

It's a game where backing teams both not to win is actually quite attractive, so the draw in 90 minutes at 23/10 with Sky Bet is the way to play the outright market.

Three of the last four Europa League finals have ended in a stalemate. It's a result which is always a runner in finals of this nature where two big clubs meet with lots on the line.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Manchester United to win on penalties)

Much better opportunities are found in the props market for Wednesday's clash in Bilbao, notably in the fouls markets.

The Europa League final has a rich tradition of being a foul-heavy occasion - it makes sense with such riches on the line.

The last 15 Europa League finals have averaged 31.2 fouls per 90 minutes.

That's a huge number.

For context, Premier League matches have averaged 22.5 fouls per 90 this season, so the added jeopardy of a final using those numbers, there could be almost 10 more fouls in this type of game that a run-of-the-mill Premier League game. And when you throw in so much being on the line for these clubs and how evenly matched they are in the betting, I think this game could be very foul-heavy and potentially go way above the number the market is expecting.

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Sky Bet has the line set at 24+ match fouls at 5/6 which looks a great starting point for those looking to exploit these total fouls angles. I'd advise laddering the prices on offer with Sky Bet right up to the 10/1 on offer for 32+ match fouls, which has a chance of landing based on the historic averages.

And it's worth noting that Spurs are a foul-heavy team under Postecoglou - he likes to play expansive and man-for-man which creates lots of one-on-one situations in space that therefore lend itself to fouls being made. Since he was appointed, no team in the Premier League has seen more fouls in their matches than Tottenham - that average is 24.5 fouls per 90 over a 75-game sample size in the Premier League.

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On the biggest stage, with so much on the line, I'd expect this Spurs game to hit those foul averages so those odds look very generous to me.

JONES KNOWS' BEST BETS: 1pt on 24 or more total match fouls (5/6 with Sky Bet) & 0.5pts on 32 or more total match fouls (10/1 with Sky Bet)

Sky Sports to show 215 live PL games from next season

From next season, Sky Sports' Premier League coverage will increase from 128 matches to at least 215 games exclusively live.

And 80 per cent of all televised Premier League games next season are on Sky Sports.

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