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Premier League: Supercomputer makes new relegation prediction after West Ham United draw

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The Premier League relegation battle has taken another twist this weekend after game week 33.

Both Leeds United and Nottingham Forest picked up crucial victories, while West Ham United were forced to settle for a draw on Monday night.

Tottenham Hotspur also picked up a point, meaning they remain two points adrift in the relegation zone.

With only five games left of the season, it appears Leeds are all but safe, while Forest are arguably only one or two wins from avoiding relegation.

Now, Opta has backed West Ham to maintain their top-flight status, with Spurs seen as the most likely to join Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season.

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Tottenham Hotspur predicted to get relegated this season

While West Ham may have felt that their point against Crystal Palace was a missed opportunity, it was another step closer to safety.

The draw ensured they moved two points clear of Spurs, whose situation grows worse by the week.

On top of this, the result also officially relegated Wolves, while Burnley are now on the brink of confirming their return to the Championship.

Now, Opta on 20 April believes that Tottenham are the most likely team to join them at 57.17 per cent.

Following this, West Ham still have a 38.03 per cent chance of going down, and are far from out of it.

The supercomputer believes Nottingham Forest and Leeds United are now all but safe, with just a 4.33 per cent and a 0.47 per cent chance of ending the season in the bottom three.

West Ham face tricky summer keeping hold of their stars

Former Manchester United scout Mick Brown has exclusively told Football Insider that Jarrod Bowen is attracting interest from Liverpool and Chelsea ahead of the summer transfer window.

The Hammers captain has been one of the best players at the club consistently for years, and his form has continued this season despite their battle for survival.

The 29-year-old loves the club and currently has no plans to leave, but would be reluctant to play in the Championship.

As a result, survival could be paramount if West Ham want to keep hold of Bowen for the 2026-27 campaign, with the next five games set to decide their fate.

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Tottenham: Pape Matar Sarr exit ‘inevitable’ as scouts prepare for World Cup show

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Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Pape Matar Sarr looks set to leave the club this summer with a big move on the horizon if he impresses for Senegal at the World Cup.

Sarr is attracting attention from numerous top clubs ahead of the summer window despite an inconsistent season at Spurs.

The 23-year-old is set to star for his country at this summer’s tournament, with Tottenham resigned to losing his services if they are relegated from the Premier League.

As I revealed on the latest edition of Football Insider’s Transfer Insider podcast, they could be forced to cash in on Sarr if they are preparing for life in the Championship next season.

Spurs’ transfer plans will hinge on what happens between now and the end of the campaign, with Sarr likely to garner even more interest if he shines at the World Cup.

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Pape Matar Sarr exit is very likely if Spurs are relegated

Sources have exclusively revealed to Football Insider that Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are interested in Sarr, with recent reports claiming that PSG are also keen on a move.

He is set to command a sizeable fee if he does depart, with the World Cup likely to play a big part in where he could end up if Spurs are relegated this season.

Speaking on the Transfer Insider podcast, I explained: “He’s obviously a big player for Senegal, and if he goes away to the World Cup and does well for them at the finals, it’s only going to enhance his reputation and maybe bring even further interest in him.

“If Tottenham were to get relegated from the Premier League, it’s inevitable that they’re going to lose some of their top players.

“I’m sure clubs are waiting and ready to pounce if that does happen, and Sarr will be one of those players that clubs will be looking at.

“Although he’s under contract until 2030, Tottenham might reluctantly have to cash in on him if they do (get relegated).”

Conor Gallagher could leave Spurs as Everton eye loan move

Fellow midfielder Gallagher joined Tottenham from Atletico Madrid in January, but has struggled to make an impact as they battle the drop this season.

The 26-year-old has started nine of his 11 league appearances for the club so far, and despite his struggles, he was lauded for an improved showing against Brighton on Saturday.

Sources have revealed to Football Insider that Everton are interested in signing Gallagher this summer to bolster their midfield ranks, with a loan-to-buy deal possibly on the cards.

He is another star who could leave North London regardless of whether they are relegated, but he looks set to be a key man under Roberto De Zerbi as Spurs fight to survive.

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Tottenham could save £145m on wages as five stars to leave after Premier League relegation

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Tottenham Hotspur could save £145million on wages if they are relegated from the Premier League this season.

That is according to former Manchester City financial adviser Stefan Borson, who exclusively told Football Insider Spurs’ top-five earners are likely to leave if they drop down to the Championship.

It has been revealed the majority of Tottenham’s squad have relegation clauses that would see their wages drop by around 50 per cent in the second tier.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side currently sit third-bottom in the top-flight table, one point behind 17th-place West Ham, who have a game in hand.

Tottenham’s revenue would drop significantly if they lose their Premier League status, undoing years of work put in to improving the club’s financial situation.

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Why Tottenham will instantly lose £145m after relegation

Tottenham posted their accounts for 2024-25 last month, showing their revenue improved from £528m in 2023-24 to £565m last season.

Meanwhile, the north London giants’ wage bill increased from £222m to £256m across the same period.

Speaking exclusively to Football Insider, Borson discussed how Tottenham’s wage reduction clauses will mitigate the drop in revenue they could face in the Championship.

“It’s not going to deal with the whole lot because it’s a very big organisation,” said Borson.

“Although the players might be on 50 per cent wage cuts, I very much doubt the general staff will be on any wage cuts. You’re talking about saving let’s say £90-100m on the first-team squad for the season.

“But you’re going to lose straight away versus this season £145m if you’re relegated because this season they’ve got Champions League and they’ve also got Premier League money.

“That’s going to reduce substantially, so those two things aren’t going to match. But they will have more matchdays. Can they sell the ground out? If there’s momentum and they’re doing okay, maybe they can.”

Which players could leave Tottenham after relegation?

Borson insisted the likes of Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven would leave if Tottenham are relegated this season.

“There are players that are going to leave,” said Borson.

“Let’s say the top-five earners, who are probably Romero, Van de Ven, Maddison, Kulusevski maybe, these sorts of players, they’re going to go.

“I would think at least three of the top-five earners are going to go. By the time you do all of the work on what it looks like, you’re going to cut the wage bill a lot.

“The wage bill is going to go from an organisational wage bill this season of let’s say £250m down to £100-105m maybe, which actually as it happens is £145m that we just talked about.

“You’re probably looking at almost an exact drop in the total wage bill from 50 per cent player cuts plus sales. That probably ends up matching broadly the loss of broadcast.”

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Roberto De Zerbi must look beyond Kevin Danso error, stats show he’s vital to Tottenham’s survival hopes

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Roberto De Zerbi would have been cursing his luck on Saturday as his Tottenham Hotspur side conceded in stoppage time to draw 2-2 with his former club Brighton.

The Italian is now winless in his first two games in charge of the Lilywhites, which is undoubtedly not the start that he would have hoped for as he bids to save them from an embarrassing relegation to the Championship.

It could have been very different for the Lilywhites this weekend, had a moment of hesitation from Kevin Danso not allowed Jan Paul van Hecke to pick his pocket inside the box and square for Georginio Rutter to equalise.

The Austrian’s lapse in concentration ultimately cost his team a crucial three points that would have lifted them out of the relegation zone, but the manager cannot afford to punish him for his mistake.

Tottenham are running out of time to save their Premier League status, and despite his pivotal error, Danso turned in the kind of performance that the boss would have loved on Saturday.

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Kevin Danso wears his heart on his sleeve yet again vs Brighton

Danso has been one of the few members of the Tottenham squad who has not been completely destroyed by the supporters at some stage this season.

He has turned in a series of gutsy defensive displays for the Lilywhites, and the fans undoubtedly feel that he is a player who is willing to give everything and more to the cause.

That was evident yet again on Saturday, and he was clearly devastated by his error as he fell to the ground after watching Rutter rifle the ball into the roof of the net.

Ordinarily, the former Southampton man would perhaps have been dropped for the next game, but De Zerbi really cannot afford to take such a stance, given the injuries within the camp at the moment.

However, Danso also turned in a typically resolute display, with his late error the only blemish on what was otherwise a hugely promising defensive showing.

He notched an incredible 12 defensive contributions across the 90 minutes, including six headed clearances, as he worked hard to repel Brighton’s aerial efforts.

His performance wasn’t perfect by any means, but he wears his heart on his sleeve, and that is exactly the kind of player who Spurs need to rely on in their current predicament, as his flawless mentality could be enough to help save them.

What has Roberto De Zerbi said about Danso’s error for Tottenham?

De Zerbi will know that the feeling within his squad is fragile after the season they have endured, and it was clear that he was keen to try and protect that when speaking about the equaliser after the game.

He hailed Danso for a “fantastic” performance until that point, while trying to place a positive spin on the way that his team surrendered their lead.

“Danso played another fantastic game, but the ball was with Danso. He lost the ball and then we conceded a goal,” the 46-year-old said after the game, according to Alasdair Gold.

“But I prefer to make mistakes with the personality to play than to concede a goal without personality, without courage.”

The boss’ immediate stance on the moment is a clear indication that he will likely stand by Danso and select him from the off for next week’s clash with Wolves, rather than try and make him learn from his switch off.

Tottenham need leaders with Cristian Romero sidelined through injury, and Danso could be the man to shoulder the burden.

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Archie Gray: Top clubs keeping tabs on Tottenham star as exit may be inevitable

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Archie Gray exit latest as Pete O’Rourke shares Tottenham transfer news

Archie Gray is set to attract attention from several top Premier League sides this summer after Tottenham‘s dismal campaign.

Gray has been a shining light in a poor season for Spurs that could yet see them relegated from the Premier League.

The 20-year-old has struggled with injury issues at times, but can play in a range of positions and has been one of their more consistent players throughout the campaign.

He has the potential to be a top player for years to come, and as I revealed on the latest edition of Football Insider’s Transfer Insider podcast, numerous top English sides are looking at signing him this summer.

Spurs’ transfer plans will hinge on whether they can remain in the top flight, with Gray being much more likely to depart if they fail to avoid relegation to the Championship.

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Archie Gray to attract transfer interest regardless of Spurs’ fortunes

Liverpool and Bayern Munich are two of the clubs that have been publicly linked with a move for Gray in the summer window.

He is set to play a key role in helping Tottenham avoid the drop over the next six weeks, but a departure seems almost inevitable if they are relegated, as numerous clubs track his progress.

Speaking on the Transfer Insider podcast, I explained: “I’m sure there’ll be interest in Archie Gray. He’s one of the best young English prospects.

“He’s been great for Tottenham despite their struggles in the Premier League this season, playing in so many positions.

“It only makes sense that other clubs will be sitting up and taking notice of Archie Gray, but I’m sure Spurs will be desperate to keep hold of him.

“If the worst comes to the worst and they suffer relegation, I’m sure some of the Premier League big boys will be circling ready to offer Gray a way out of North London.”

Tottenham could also cash in on Conor Gallagher this summer

Gallagher has flattered to deceive since a January move to Spurs from Atletico Madrid for around £34million.

He has done little to help Spurs in their quest to avoid the drop, with former boss Igor Tudor dropping him to the bench for his final two games in charge against Atleti and Nottingham Forest.

Sources have exclusively told Football Insider that Tottenham plan to sell Gallagher this summer, even if they stay in the Premier League.

The 26-year-old is believed to be on a significant wage in North London, with a departure also seeming inevitable if they are relegated.

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Everton set sights on Conor Gallagher, loan-to-buy deal on the cards

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Everton are keeping close tabs on Tottenham Hotspur star Conor Gallagher ahead of the summer window, sources have told Football Insider.

The Toffees are interested in pursuing a loan deal, most likely with with an obligation to buy in 2027, for the central midfielder, 26, rather than a permanent deal.

Everton are prioritising the capture of a proven central midfielder and it is believed that David Moyes is a “big admirer” of the England international as the club prepare to assemble a shortlist of targets.

It is believed that Gallagher could now leave Tottenham Hotspur just months after joining in the winter window.

At Spurs, Gallagher has made 12 appearances in all competitions to date during a calamitous period for the club and that has opened the door for Everton’s summer swoop.

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Can Conor Gallagher be a success at Everton?

Since signing for Tottenham in the winter window, there is no doubt that Gallagher has been a disappointment.

There was hope that the England international’s quality and experience could help lead Spurs up the table. However, so far, the opposition has happened.

According to Fotmob on 18 April, Gallagher has been far from impressive, averaging 1.07 chances created, 0.67 shots, 44.9 per cent duels won, 1.34 tackles and an 81.4 per cent passing accuracy per 90 minutes.

For a central midfielder, this is highly disappointing, with the 26-year-old clearly not being effective either defensively or offensively.

However, at Tottenham, given their current circumstances, it is likely difficult for any player to come in and thrive.

Therefore, there is a chance that he would be able to turn his form around at Everton.

How much do Everton have to spend in the summer transfer window?

Football Insider has exclusively revealed that Everton will have a limited budget in the summer transfer window.

As a result, loan-to-buy deals are more likely than big-money captures as they aim to bolster their squad ahead of the upcoming season.

Alongside a new central midfielder, the Toffees are also on the hunt for a centre-forward as they aim to finally end their woes up top.

Recently, England international Ivan Toney has been linked to Everton as they look to prepare for the upcoming summer transfer window.

However, with David Moyes’ side still in the mix for European qualification, it remains to be seen how this could affect their transfer plans, with the club still having an outside shot of playing Champions League football next season.

Xavi Simons Scored Late Stunner vs Brighton, But He May Have Just Relegated Tottenham

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Xavi Simons thought he’d score winner vs Brighton, but £51m star may have just relegated Tottenham

Xavi Simons thought he had finally broken Tottenham Hotspur‘s 15-game streak without a Premier League win when firing past Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen.

Lucas Bergvall perfectly dispossessed Jan Paul van Hecke just outside the Seagulls’ penalty area, allowing the Dutchman to stride towards the box and unleash an unstoppable strike in the 77th minute.

All three points would have moved Spurs out of the relegation, even leapfrogging West Ham and Nottingham Forest into 16th, only for Georginio Rutter to ruin any chance of that happening on Saturday, 18 April.

Tottenham remain in the Premier League dropzone, with West Ham still to play Crystal Palace in matchweek 33, and there appears to be one player that the Lilywhites can blame for that.

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Xavi Simons becomes a passenger as Tottenham concede late on

Although the Lilywhites had just 13 minutes of normal time to hold on in, there was almost an expectation that the home side were going to concede a late equaliser.

Murmurs filled the stadium when the fourth official displayed a minimum of eight minutes of added time, and they had every right to be wary, with one slip of focus from Kevin Danso enough to ruin the afternoon.

While there were a few minor stoppages throughout the second half, the majority of those added minutes came from Simons requiring treatment for cramp on the pitch.

The Dutch international was totally ineffective for the remaining minutes in North London, strolling around the pitch in pain, and Roberto De Zerbi had already used all of his substitutions.

Simons has completed 90 minutes multiple times this season, but even so, maybe it was an oversight by the manager. Either way, the player’s struggles can be pinpointed as the key reason for Spurs’ downfall.

Brighton’s equaliser could be the final nail in Tottenham’s coffin

Danso will, understandably, be used as the scapegoat for the Lilywhites’ disappointing draw, but even in the build-up to Rutter’s equaliser, Simons’ lack of effort to get back into the box is evident.

Even Les Ferdinand was critical of the £51million star [The Athletic], who became a passenger after needing to be treated by the medical staff. It seems harsh, but it’s true.

Spurs are in a relegation battle, and every second on the pitch counts. Premier League relegation could financially ruin Tottenham, especially given the wages that stars are on and the club’s infrastructure.

Three points would have provided an incredible boost for De Zerbi. But it now feels like two points dropped, rather than one point gained in the dropzone.

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referee Reacts to Controversy Before Xavi Simons Goal

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Tottenham vs Brighton: Ex-referee reacts to controversy moments before Xavi Simons goal

Xavi Simons’ goal against Brighton was “entirely legitimate” despite calls for a foul in the build-up against Tottenham Hotspur.

That is according to former PGMOL chief and ex-FIFA referee, Keith Hackett, who exclusively told Football Insider that VAR were right not to get involved after Lucas Bergvall dispossessed Jan Paul van Hecke.

Away supporters were adamant that a free-kick should have been awarded before Spurs’ No.7 curled home a beautiful long-range effort, before then jumping into the crowd on Saturday, 18 April.

There didn’t appear to be a VAR check, however, but Tottenham still drew 2-2 with Brighton, as Jan Paul van Hecke robbed Kevin Danso of possession, allowing Georginio Rutter to stroke home another equaliser.

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Lucas Bergvall legally dispossessed Brighton star in controversial moment

Spurs supporters would have been holding their breath at the thought of a VAR review, but with the Seagulls kicking off soon after, it was clear that the goal was going to stand in North London.

Speaking exclusively to Football Insider about Spurs’ winner, the former referee said: “The challenge by Lucas Bergvall was entirely legitimate and, correctly, the referee allowed play to continue.

“It was a good goal, and I’m delighted to see VAR not intervene.”

The Lilywhites looked set to secure an all-important three points in North London, only for Fabian Hurzeler’s side to rescue a point in the fourth minute of added time through Rutter.

How did Tottenham fans respond to the late draw?

Pundits attempted to remain positive despite the late heartbreak, with Spurs earning a valuable point near the bottom of the Premier League table, but it might not be enough.

De Zerbi’s side are one point from safety, and with West Ham next facing Crystal Palace on Monday, 20 April, Spurs fans will have all eyes on the events at Selhurst Park.

On social media, though, the majority of supporters have already come to terms with their impending relegation from the Premier League, lashing out at the players for being “spineless bottle jobs”.

It is hardly a surprising reaction, given how close the team were to securing all three points, and they will have to prove those doubters wrong when they face Wolves on Saturday, 25 April.

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Pape Matar Sarr: Real Madrid and Bayern Munich race to sign Tottenham star

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Pape Matar Sarr: Bayern Munich race to sign Tottenham ace to star alongside Harry Kane

Pape Matar Sarr is attracting interest from Real Madrid and Bayern Munich amid uncertainty over his future at Tottenham Hotspur beyond this season.

Sarr has emerged as one of the most promising box-to-box midfielders in the Premier League in his last few seasons at Spurs.

The 23-year-old is struggling to realise that potential in North London, however, especially as the club battles against relegation from the top flight this season.

He has still put in some strong performances in recent months, and as I revealed on the latest edition of Football Insider’s Transfer Insider podcast, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are two of the clubs keeping tabs on his availability ahead of the summer.

Spurs’ transfer plans will be dictated by whether they are relegated this season, with Sarr looking very likely to leave if they are preparing for Championship football next term.

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Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are both admirers of Pape Matar Sarr

Tottenham are facing an exodus of key players this summer regardless of whether they are relegated, with Sarr being one of those who could leave even if they survive the drop under Roberto De Zerbi.

Either Real Madrid and Bayern Munich could make a move for his signature this summer, with recent reports claiming that PSG are also interested in the Senegal international.

Speaking on the Transfer Insider podcast, I explained: “It won’t just be Premier League clubs, looking at Sarr, there’ll be lot of European interest as well.

“There’s been talk of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and others all looking at the Senegal international as well. Tottenham know that they have got a top young player on their hands, he’s still only 23.

“He’s obviously a big player for Senegal as well, and if he goes away to the World Cup and does well for them at the finals, it’s only going to enhance his reputation and maybe bring even further interest in him.”

Cristian Romero moving closer to Spurs exit after release clause reveal

Romero has been Tottenham’s best defender over the last few seasons, but may have played his final game for the club after recently being ruled out for the rest of the season with a ligament tear.

The Argentine centre-back has been linked with a move away from Tottenham for the last 12 months, and his own father recently revealed that Romero has a release clause in his contract which could allow him to leave for between £37.8million and £53million this summer.

Sources have exclusively told Football Insider that Romero looks increasingly likely to leave Spurs in the coming months due to the clause and the prospect of relegation, with Atletico Madrid reportedly interested in his services.

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Tottenham close to sporting director hire after talks with Dougie Freedman and Sebastian Kehl

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Tottenham Hotspur are down to the final two in their search to bring in a new co-sporting director and are advancing in talks, sources have told Football Insider.

Former Borussia Dortmund sporting director Sebastian Kehl and ex-Crystal Palace chief Dougie Freedman are both in the frame, having held talks with Spurs over the role.

Spurs are searching for a new co-sporting director following the departure of Fabio Paratici to Fiorentina after the close of the January transfer window.

Kehl and Freedman are both viewed as leading contenders for the role as a result of their previous success, as they are highly rated by multiple clubs across Europe.

Whoever lands the job will work closely alongside Johan Lange and could face an immediate challenge ahead of a crucial summer transfer window for Tottenham.

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Who are the two sporting director contenders for Tottenham?

Former Everton CEO Keith Wyness told Football Insider last month that Freedman should be Tottenham’s top target as they aim to reshuffle their backroom staff.

The former Crystal Palace manager and sporting director built up a strong reputation at Selhurst Park before leaving to join Al-Diriyah in 2025.

He has been credited with bringing the likes of Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise and Adam Wharton to Palace and has worked well to land top players on restricted budgets.

Kehl, meanwhile, built a strong reputation during his time at Borussia Dortmund and left the club by mutual consent just last month, with his availability putting Spurs on alert.

He had held the role at sporting director BVB since 2022 and oversaw the signings of the likes of Nico Schlotterbeck, Felix Nmecha and Serhou Guirassy.

Why do Tottenham want a co-sporting director?

It has been a busy season both on and off the pitch at Tottenham, with a major backroom reshuffle coming alongside their dismal Premier League campaign.

Daniel Levy stepped down as executive chairman in September, leading to Peter Charrington and Vinai Venkatesham’s arrivals as part of a new-look board.

Meanwhile, Paratici returned to Spurs alongside Lange as the co-sporting directors with tasks split between the two in what was labelled an “unusual” model.

Former Man City financial adviser Stefan Borson told Football Insider that Tottenham believe their model is useful as the football operations are too complex for one person to cover.

It also allows them to split tasks including recruitment and internal operations to allow for a greater focus on both sides of the role, rather than mixing the two.

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