Football
What dropping out of the Premier League would really mean for Spurs
The most obvious question for Tottenham after their latest calamitous weekend is perhaps also the most sobering. Now what?
A 3-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest is a bad result in any circumstances, but in the context of all that surrounded Sunday’s fixture it is crushing.
It came after 10,000 Spurs fans had lined the High Road to welcome the team coach to the stadium, an orchestrated show of unity in troubled times.
This just a few days on from Spurs’ best performance of the season, a victory over Atletico Madrid full of intensity and attacking ambition.
Spurs are one point above the relegation zone with seven Premier League games remaining
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Remember, too, Spurs were facing a Forest side without a win in seven Premier League matches, that had played 120 minutes in Denmark on Thursday night.
Throw it all into a pot, mix it up, and a miserable defeat to a direct relegation rival is somehow served up. So, now what?
A three-week break for starters. Potentially another manager change. Then a trip to Sunderland, by which point Spurs will be in the relegation zone if West Ham win at home to Wolves two days earlier.
Opta gave Spurs a 4.2 per cent chance of going down on February 23. A month later, that is up to 27.1 per cent. The eye test would put it at double that at least.
A winless run of 13 matches in the league is Spurs’ worst form in 91 years. They have lost at home to West Ham, Crystal Palace and Forest since the turn of the year. No match looks particularly winnable.
Player exodus
Igor Tudor did not conduct any of his post-match media duties on Sunday, having been informed straight after the match about the death of his father. Instead it was his assistant Bruno Salter reflecting on the game and he quickly got to the heart of a major problem.
“In the second half, probably, we were unable to deal with the weight of the game,” Saltor admitted. This is a weak group of players that fold under pressure. As soon as the tide turned against Forest, Spurs went under.
In the Premier League this season, Spurs have fallen behind in 22 matches. They have picked up just seven points from those games and not won a single one. Major changes are needed.
The contrast to the Champions League has been stark. In a match where the pressure was off and they were expected to lose, Spurs shone against Atletico. A more cynical outlook would be that the players turned up in Europe, using it as an audition for summer moves.
Cristian Romero and Dominic Solanke are among the players likely to leave Spurs if they get relegated
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Recent reports have suggested that certain Spurs players have told the dressing room relegation is not a major concern for them as they will leave regardless.
Micky van de Ven has dismissed those claims as “nonsense”, but many in the squad will already be eyeing the exit door.
If Spurs are relegated, Van de Ven will quickly be gone in all likelihood. So too Cristian Romero, who even when the club have been at the other end of the table has never particularly distanced himself from a move.
Pedro Porro has two years left on his contract and has admirers in Spain. Djed Spence and Dominic Solanke are unlikely to hang around and Guglielmo Vicario wants a move back to Italy. Richarlison and Xavi Simons will seek out moves elsewhere. Add in Randal Kolo Muani and Joao Palhinha returning to their parent clubs and the expected departures quickly add up.
Spurs could maybe keep hold of those still contending with longer-term injury issues. James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski have not played this season, while Wilson Odobert’s ACL injury will keep him out for most of 2026.
Players such as Conor Gallagher and Lucas Bergvall will want to play at a higher level, but they are tied down on contracts until 2031 to give Spurs some leverage.
Archie Gray has been a shining light in recent weeks and Spurs must try to keep him. He could potentially even get the captaincy.
There would be decisions to be made over players returning from loan moves. Luka Vuskovic has been superb for Hamburg and another season out on loan would make sense. Keeping Mikey Moore for a Championship campaign might be more realistic.
Managerial uncertainty
An unprecedented overhaul of the squad would be inevitable.
Considering Spurs’ pitiful showing in the league over such a sustained period, that might sound quite appealing to supporters.
Just how many first-team players Spurs are able to talk into at least a year in the Championship will depend also on who is in the dugout.
For much of this season, all roads have seemingly led to Mauricio Pochettino. When Thomas Frank was struggling, Spurs hoped he would be able to limp until the end of the campaign with minimal upheaval.
Mauricio Pochettino has been heavily linked with a return to Spurs
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That became impossible, so bad had the mood around the club become.
However, even the decision to bring in Tudor as an interim rather than appointing a permanent replacement seemed to indicate that Pochettino was still on the mind.
The Argentine will lead the USA at the World Cup this summer, but has been clear he wants to go back to Spurs. Earlier this month, he was serenaded by supporters as he flew with them to Madrid to watch Spurs against Atletico.
“I still feel in my heart that, yes, I would like one day to come back,” Pochettino said last year of a potential return. However, the club being in the Championship is a possibility he would not even have considered.
Pochettino does love Spurs, and the chance to effectively gut the squad and build the club from a clean slate might appeal, but it would be a big ask to get him to accept managing in the second tier - particularly when Pochettino is understood to be on Real Madrid’s shortlist for the summer.
“Timing is always important in this sport. Football takes you where it wants,” was Pochettino’s coy response to those rumours.
Spurs are this week said to be considering making a permanent appointment before the summer.
The hierarchy have discussed bringing in Roberto De Zerbi, the former Brighton manager now out of work after leaving Marseilles by mutual consent last month, with any deal likely to include a relegation break clause.
The managerial pool will thin out significantly if Spurs go down.
Andoni Iraola is admired within Spurs, but the Bournemouth boss will have far more appealing offers than Championship football.
If not Pochettino, Spurs could still look to other options with links to the club.
Robbie Keane was considered after Frank’s sacking, but he was not interested in an interim job.
The permanent gig, even in the Championship, would be more attractive.
Keane has impressed at Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ferencvaros, and could now look for the next step in his career.
It might not be as popular a decision among the fanbase, but the club might instead consider more of a specialist in the division.
Scott Parker has achieved three promotions in the past six years with Fulham, Bournemouth and Burnley.
There would be concerns over his style of play, but as a manager to get Tottenham back into the top flight and then be replaced, he would likely be considered.
Kieran McKenna would be on the shortlist too. Even if Ipswich do get promoted this season, a move to Spurs would surely still appeal to him.
Financial impact
At the start of March, Spurs’ chief executive Vinai Venkatesham sat down with the club’s Fan Advisory Board and took aim at Daniel Levy.
Minutes revealed that Venkatesham felt Levy had allowed Spurs to fall short in several areas, including an “insufficient focus on on-field success”.
Addressing other failings in recent years, the minutes highlighted “financial pressures arising from heavy transfer spending and limited player sales, increasing the relevance of financial fair play constraints to future planning”.
Vivienne Lewis and Vinai Venkatesham
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Those financial concerns are going to multiply to unprecedented levels if Tottenham do not stay in the top flight.
Spurs have relegation clauses inserted in their contracts as standard practice, offering some protection.
Standard Sport understands that includes some of the most high-profile signings and contract renewals over the past 12 months.
A significant cut to the wage bill would be essential for Spurs. The most recent figures indicate a wage bill of approximately £250million, more than six times the Championship average.
The impact of relegation would be eye-watering.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire estimates that Tottenham’s revenue streams, currently totalling more than £600m, could drop by £261m.
European broadcast revenue of around £70m is already guaranteed to be lost. In the 2024-25 season, Spurs received £128m from the Premier League in broadcast and commercial payments. An initial parachute payment in the region of £45m and an EFL broadcast deal worth £5.7m-a-year would only slightly limit the damage.
Many of Spurs’ partnership deals include relegation clauses. One source has suggested revenue from the Nike sponsorship would be cut by up to two thirds.
“For a club of Spurs’ ambitions and financial scale, relegation would not simply be a short-term sporting setback,” Maguire said. “The economics of English football make recovery a multi-year project.”
Matchday income would also take a significant hit. The club have already found it hard to sell-out this season. In the Championship, there would likely be swathes of empty seats and painful decisions to make.
When Aston Villa were in the Championship in 2016, they shut sections of their stadium in an attempt to manage maintenance costs while attendances dipped.
The obvious solution to fill these financial holes is player sales.
Most of the club’s star names would be expected to depart, leaving others to clean up the mess they created.
A complete reset is needed at Spurs, on and off the pitch. Relegation would necessitate that and provide the blank canvas to build a culture and an identity to believe in.
However, big clubs have gone down before and been convinced they would immediately return reinvigorated. History shows that once the free-falling begins, there is no knowing where the bottom is.
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