Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 31.
Team analysis: Tottenham Hotspur v Nottingham Forest
A huge ‘six-pointer’
When Nottingham Forest accrued 65 points to finish seventh last season, their highest position since 1995, few would have expected a nervy fight for Premier League safety less than a year on.
The same, of course, applies to UEFA Europa League holders Spurs, who have spent just one season (1977/78) outside of the top flight since 1950.
Yet, here we are.
Separated by a solitary point, and both staring down the barrel of relegation, nerves will be frayed when they face one another in Matchweek 31.
Finding a way to win this pivotal contest is absolutely imperative for both clubs.
Spurs, winless in 12 Premier League matches in 2026, have collected just two victories since 26 October – and have won on home turf just twice all season.
But they did record a morale-boosting 3-2 victory over Atletico Madrid in midweek, giving Tudor his first win as Spurs head coach.
Just a point behind them, outside the relegation zone on goal difference ahead of fast-improving West Ham United, are Nottingham Forest.
Vitor Pereira, their fourth permanent head coach of the season, is looking for his first league win at the fifth attempt.
But like Spurs, Forest will bring some confidence into this contest after beating Midtjylland 2-1 on Thursday night and qualifying for the Europa League quarter-finals following a penalty shootout triumph.
With the rejuvenated Hammers winning four of their last nine matches and in great form, this league fixture feels like a "must-win" for both teams.
Spurs and Forest's remaining PL fixtures
MW Spurs Forest 31 NFO (H) TOT (A) 32 SUN (A) AVL (H) 33 BHA (H) BUR (H) 34 WOL (A) SUN (A) 35 AVL (A) CHE (A) 36 LEE (H) NEW (H) 37 CHE (A) MUN (A) 38 EVE (H) BOU (H)
Can Richarlison save Spurs?
He has started fewer than half of Spurs’ top-flight games, yet Richarlison has still scored more than double the number of goals (nine) than any team-mate.
All non-penalty strikes, only three Premier League forwards have scored as often, at a faster rate than the Brazilian.
How Richarlison's minutes per goal rate compares*
Player Mins/goal Erling Haaland 109.91 Igor Thiago 134.95 Benjamin Sesko 145.89 Richarlison 159.67 Joao Pedro 160.36
*Minimum nine non-penalty goals
Crucially, the 28-year-old has previous experience of relegation battles.
Back in 2021/22, he scored six goals in the last nine matches to help save Everton from the drop.
His last-minute equaliser at home to Leicester City, a self-made winner against Chelsea, and his precious equaliser in the 3-2 comeback win against Crystal Palace, have assured Richarlison a place in Merseyside folklore.
With those under-pressure contributions on his CV, and two goals in his last three appearances helping matters, Tudor will surely start the Brazil international against Forest.
From a tactical perspective it will be fascinating to see if Tudor uses Richarlison as part of a front two, alongside Randal Kolo Muani. Fellow forward Dominic Solanke is an injury doubt due to a hip injury.
His 4-4-2 worked well at Anfield last time out, when 21.3 per cent of Spurs’ passes were long; a figure way above their season average of 12 per cent.
Their equaliser stemmed from a long punt forward from 'keeper Guglielmo Vicario for Kolo Muani, who set up Richarlison to score, as you can see in the image below.
They will have far more possession this weekend against counter-attacking Forest, but going direct is an option they can certainly turn to.
In a campaign where Spurs' strikers have consistently struggled to be available, Richarlison has been their chief goal threat.
Offering a physical presence, and a knack for getting on the end of big chances, the Brazilian has to be a shoo-in to start on Sunday.
Spurs attacking stats 2025/26
Shots Shots inside the box Richarlison 44 Richarlison 40 Simons 36 Tel 17 Kudus 26 Kudus 16
Big chances Chances created in open play Richarlison 12 Richarlison 94 Kolo Muani 5 Kudus 57 Odobert 4 Kolo Muani 54
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Why have Forest’s goals dried up?
Scoring just 28 times, Nottingham Forest have blanked in 14 of their 30 matches so far; an unwanted Premier League high.
For obvious reasons, Chris Wood’s prolonged absence has been keenly felt.
The New Zealander, who netted 20 league goals last season, scored twice early on in the campaign but has been out since mid-October.
His replacement, Igor Jesus, has netted just twice in 29 appearances.
Across their last seven, winless top-flight matches, Forest have actually peppered the opposition goal with 111 shots; the fourth-highest number during this period.
Forest attacking stats ranked this season
Stats Total (PL rank) Games played 7 Shots 11 (4th) Shots on target 26.1% (17th) Shot conversion rate 4.5% (20th) xG per shot 0.07 (20th)
Scoring from just five of those attempts, it has been a story of high volume but low quality when it comes to chance creation and finishing.
An xG per shot of just 0.07 (ranked 20th) highlights a dearth of clear-cut opportunities, so their 4.5 per cent conversion rate - also a division-wide low during the last seven matches – is no surprise.
Taking too many hopeful shots from outside the box has been an issue.
Across 2025/26, Forest’s 155 attempts from 18+ yards ranks them fourth in the division, but just 2.58 per cent of those have found the back of the net (four).
Recently, at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool, they attempted a combined 30 shots from long distance, failing to score in either match.
With attacking midfielders, wingers and full-backs creating very little in terms of big chances, there has been an air of desperation.
Forest's average shots outside the box
Matchweeks Shots outside the box/match 1-23 4.34 24-30 7.85
Looking at it a different way, shooting from long range could bear fruit, for both sides, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Vicario has conceded 11 times from outside the box, and has the second-worst save percentage in that department of the 33 goalkeepers used this season.
Forest stoppers Matz Sels, and John Victor, have also struggled to keep out long shots this season.
Goalkeepers in the PL long-shot saves compared
Goals conceded outside box Lowest save % shots outside box Vicario (TOT) 11 Victor (NFO) 0% Sels (NFO) 7 Vicario (TOT) 64.52% Donnarumma (MCI) 7 Bayindir (MUN) 66.67% Verbruggen (BHA) 7 Raya (ARS) 68.42% Petrovic (BOU) 7 Johnstone (WOL) 68.42%
What tactics will the managers deploy?
Vitor Pereira’s pre-match preparations will be difficult, as he cannot be sure which formation Spurs will deploy.
Tudor has used three shapes in four Premier League games in charge; which becomes five differing systems in six matches when you add the 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1 used across the two legs against Atletico Madrid.
Tudor’s formations
Match Formation Spurs 1-4 Arsenal 3-5-2 Fulham 2-1 Spurs 4-4-2 Spurs 1-3 Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 Liverpool 1-1 Spurs 4-4-2
Having lost all three matches when starting with a three-man rearguard, four at the back is the likely choice.
With Richarlison and Kolo Muani available, 4-4-2 is the front runner, especially on the back of an encouraging 1-1 draw at Liverpool.
After impressing in a 3-2 success against Atletico Madrid in midweek, Xavi Simons will also come under consideration as a No 10.
If he is included in the starting XI in his favoured role, Tudor will opt for 4-2-3-1.
Pereira has mixed up his tactical approach since taking over at the City Ground too, switching to a back three against Manchester City and Midtjylland.
Yet 4-2-3-1 is his go-to formation, and that will effectively match up with their opponents’ style.
Forest will certainly encounter a fitter, more industrious side than the one they swept aside 3-0 in December on home turf.
Under Thomas Frank, Spurs ran 105.36km that day, but since Tudor came in their athleticism has increased greatly.
Three of Spurs’ top five distances covered have come under the Croat, with the other match impacted by a 38th-minute red card.
Spurs' distance covered in four Premier League matches under Tudor
Opponent Distance ran (km) Liverpool 117.82 Fulham 116.10 Arsenal 113.34 Crystal Palace* 105.33 Average under Frank 108.63
*Played with 10 men from 38th minute
Can Gibbs-White galvanise Forest?
Whenever talismanic No 10 Morgan Gibbs-White ticks, Forest look a significantly better side.
Likely to sit behind Igor Jesus as a central attacking midfielder, Pereira’s side will look to get the 26-year-old onto the ball as often as possible.
Creatively, Gibbs-White has been disappointing this season, creating just three big chances and managing only two assists.
In 2024/25, he laid on 10 big chances and produced eight assists.
That said, the England international still tops the Forest rankings in all the attacking metrics.
Forest attacking stats 2025/26
Shots Goals Morgan Gibbs-White 64 Morgan Gibbs-White 8 Igor Jesus 53 Callum Hudson-Odoi 3 Elliot Anderson 36 Five players 2
Big chances Chances created in open play Morgan Gibbs-White 11 Morgan Gibbs-White 41 Chris Wood 4 Callum Hudson-Odoi 37 Igor Jesus 4 Neco Williams 27
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Scoring two headers, one strike from outside the box, from a superb forward run against Aston Villa, and a brilliant back heel at Man City, the attacking midfielder’s range of finishing has been impressive.
Scoring one more goal than he did last season, with eight matches left, Gibbs-White delivered for his side when they needed goals from him.
The question is, will he be Forest’s matchwinner on Sunday afternoon?
With the stakes incredibly high, and the pressure mounting for both clubs, it will be an afternoon where key players on both sides will be expected to step up.