Following the two-week international break, Tottenham Hotspur visit the Emirates to face North London rivals Arsenal on Sunday, hoping to avoid a fourth successive derby defeat.
It does feel a little odd seeing a North London Derby placed so deep into the season, all the way in November, but if anything, the wait has only added an extra layer of anticipation.
Tottenham Hotspur went into the break off a dramatic 2–2 draw with Manchester United, where Matthijs de Ligt’s last-second header couldn’t stop Spurs from extending their 2-season unbeaten run against the Manchester club.
However, it still added to a poor home record of just 5 points from 6 league games as their position in 5th has been carried almost entirely by their form on the road, with Spurs boasting the best away record in the Premier League.
Joined by only a handful, including names like Bayern Munich and AC Milan, who share a similar unbeaten away record domestically, Tottenham’s run is about to face its toughest test yet.
Arsenal look as complete as they ever have under Mikel Arteta, and they’re arguably Europe’s best team right now. After 3 consecutive 2nd-place finishes, this finally feels like the season in which they’re primed to go all the way.
Their 8-match winning streak, with 8 clean sheets, ended just before the break as Sunderland held them to a 2–2 draw, but they still lead the Premier League table by 4 points.
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Tottenham’s perfect away record faces a serious threat simply because they haven’t won a Premier League match at the Emirates in 15 years.
If you stretch it across all competitions, you can just about sneak in a win: the 2-0 Carabao Cup victory in 2018, with that defeat being 1 of the only 2 Arsenal have suffered to Spurs in their last 32 meetings in all competitions.
Even ignoring the away-day curse, the numbers still do not get better for Spurs as they have lost 5 of the last 6 North London Derbies in the Premier League (1D).
Last season, Arsenal managed to complete the double: a 1-0 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium followed by a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture against an injury-hit Spurs side.
The sides did meet once already this year in a pre-season friendly in what was the first overseas North London Derby which Thomas Frank’s men were able to win 1-0, courtesy of a long-range rocket from Pape Sarr.
Tottenham team news
The two-week break was supposed to help Spurs welcome a few players back, but that hasn’t quite materialised.
After Randal Kolo Muani’s jaw injury against Manchester United, Thomas Frank would have had hoped to have Dominic Solanke back available, but there’s still no sign of him returning to full training. Dejan Kulusevski was spotted doing light work on the grass last week, but is still at least a month away from a return.
Mohammed Kudus missed the last two matches with what was initially described as a knock. He later withdrew from Ghana duty, making him a doubt. Lucas Bergvall also returned from Sweden’s World Cup qualifiers after failing a fitness test following a concussion earlier this month, so he too remains doubtful.
Pape Matar Sarr was taken off four minutes into the second half in Senegal’s 2–0 loss to Brazil. Their head coach insisted it was only precautionary, but his availability is still uncertain.
On the positive side, Radu Dragusin finally returned to football after almost a year out, featuring in two behind-closed-doors friendlies during the break.
As for confirmed absentees: Archie Gray, Ben Davies, Yves Bissouma and Kota Takai all remain out.
Arsenal team news
Just when it looked impossible to find flaws in this Arsenal side, injuries were the only thing that managed to make them look worse as they too head into this derby without some key players.
In the same friendly that saw Pape Sarr withdrawn, Arsenal were hit with a heavier blow as Gabriel picked up a thigh injury. With 3 man-of-the-match displays against Spurs in the past, his absence for the next month is a significant loss.
He joins Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus on the sidelines although the latter has returned to training, but remains some way from being match-ready.
Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli and Viktor Gyokeres are all major doubts, and we’ll get more clarity from Mikel Arteta tomorrow.
Predicted Tottenham line-up
Tottenham: Vicario, Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie, Bentancur, Simons, Palhinha, Kudus, Richarlison, Odobert.
There’s very little debate about the back four and even less about the midfield, where Frank only has those 3 fully fit options.
If Kudus isn’t fully ready, Brennan Johnson is the most likely to slot in on the right. Mathys Tel could also start up front in place of Richarlison, though that feels unlikely, and he’s expected to come off the bench.
Our North London Derby prediction
Keep an eye on Eberechi Eze as he will be getting plenty of boos from the away end after his last-minute switch from Tottenham in the summer transfer window, and you can bet he’ll be desperate to score and rub it in with a cheeky celebration.
But his replacement, Xavi Simons, might be an even bigger story on the day. He’s slowly growing into his role and looked sharp during international duty, even scoring in his latest outing. He hasn’t found the net for Spurs yet, and he’ll be itching to put that right in a game of this magnitude.
Spurs haven’t tasted a win in a London derby for a while now, and Thomas Frank will be aware of what it would mean to the supporters.
The form guide, head-to-head stats, and the Emirates record all favour Arsenal, but derbies have a habit of ignoring logic, and this season Tottenham have saved their best football for away days.
Predicted score: Arsenal 1-2 Tottenham
Up the Spurs!