We are 24 per cent of the way through the 2025-26 Premier League season and one team look to be a cut above the rest so far.
That side are Arsenal, currently four points clear of second-placed Bournemouth and five ahead of Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland in third and fourth.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are fifth — having lost three of their nine games — level on points with improving rivals Manchester United, while reigning champions Liverpool remain stuck on the 15 points they won in their opening five matches.
In a season where most sides are exhibiting several flaws, is there anyone out there who can step up and challenge Arsenal — or are Mikel Arteta and his players destined to canter to the north London club’s first league title in 21 years?
The Athletic’s writers have therefore been asked, or rather forced, to make a case for each challenger, down to Chelsea in ninth.
Here then, is an argument as to why those sides can beat Arsenal to the champions’ trophy, a reason why they won’t, and some numerical context from data writer Conor O’Neill.
Bournemouth
W5 D3 L1
Anantaajith Raghuraman on why they can catch Arsenal: Bournemouth have improved both in and out of possession after restructuring their defence and have one of the Premier League’s best players in Antoine Semenyo. Eli Junior Kroupi’s breakout campaign up front adds to the excitement, while Andoni Iraola’s tactics can force mistakes from even the best teams.
Lest we forget, Arsenal lost four league matches in 2024-25 and two of those were to Bournemouth.
The teams don’t meet until January at the Vitality Stadium, but November could prove decisive for a Leicester City-like fairytale to be possible.
Arsenal have two more Champions League matches to contend with, along with tricky matches at Sunderland and Chelsea and at home against Tottenham Hotspur and Brentford between November 8 and December 3. In that same period, Bournemouth play Aston Villa, West Ham United and Everton, while also visiting Sunderland.
Why they won’t: The past two weekends provide a clue. Arsenal were thoroughly professional in putting visitors Crystal Palace away 1-0, limiting the visitors to 0.5 xG. A week earlier, Bournemouth played out a wild 3-3 draw at Selhurst Park with Palace, underperforming their 4.4 xG and missing multiple big chances.
Bournemouth’s style, while comparatively more measured than it was in 2024-25, is still largely direct and chaotic. They are much better positioned to deal with transitions, but 11 goals conceded in their nine games (albeit seven of those have come just against Liverpool and Palace) is a concern. Arsenal have allowed just three in as many matches.
Their high-intensity system can also lead to injuries, which derailed their end to last season. While they seem better equipped to deal with them this time around in most positions and will welcome the returns of Evanilson, Enes Unal and Julio Soler soon, their depth at centre-back – where Arsenal potentially have six different options – behind Bafode Diakite and Marcos Senesi is not the most encouraging.
What the data says: Bournemouth have spent fewer minutes in losing positions this season than any other side — a testament to their quality, but also a trait that plays into their strengths. Their five goals from fast breaks are a league high, and Iraola’s transitional approach thrives against stretched opponents chasing a goal. It won’t be smooth sailing between now and May, and how they cope when falling behind early is likely to be a truer test of their credentials.
Tottenham Hotspur
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Elias Burke on why they can catch Arsenal: Whisper it quietly, but there are a fair few similarities between Thomas Frank’s Tottenham and Arteta’s Arsenal.
Like their local rivals, Spurs’ success is grounded in defensive solidity. Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven are perhaps the only centre-back partnership in the Premier League that can match Arsenal’s William Saliba and Gabriel on their day, and they are backed up by able deputies: Kevin Danso, who stepped in for the injured Romero, was excellent in their 3-0 win away win against Everton.
That relatively comfortable win at the Hill Dickinson Stadium also demonstrated their set-piece prowess. Much has been made of Arsenal’s threat from corners and free kicks over several seasons, but Tottenham have made a marked improvement from last season in dead-ball situations since appointing Frank, and are now among the best in the league. Carrying on from Rodrigo Bentancur opening the scoring at a corner in the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa last weekend, Van de Ven profited from set-piece coach Andreas Georgson’s ingenuity to score his first career brace on Sunday.
And while Arsenal might still have a slight edge in that department, Spurs are scoring far more freely than them from open play. They have more than twice as many goals from open play as Arsenal (11 to five), with only Liverpool and Manchester City doing better.
Why they won’t: Tottenham’s impressive defensive structure and set-piece proficiency have given them an encouraging base to start from, but they’re yet to find an attacking rhythm in open play.
Frank’s side have excelled in capitalising on “chaos” situations, recycling the ball well from set pieces to create second- and third-chance opportunities. They have also finished excellently, scoring 17 times from an expected goals (xG) tally of 11.25, which is the highest overperformance (5.75) in the Premier League so far. While Spurs could conceivably remain as threatening from set pieces and their follow-up situations, such overperformance tends to level itself out over the course of a league season, particularly as serial xG model-breakers Harry Kane and Son Heung-min are no longer around.
Their lack of consistent attacking fluency is partly down to injuries. James Maddison, who is likely to miss most, if not all, of the season due to an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) knee injury sustained on their pre-season tour, would help significantly. As would fellow long-term absentee Dejan Kulusevski, who could return from his own knee issue before the end of the calendar year.
What the data says: Tottenham are also overperforming at the defensive end of the pitch, conceding almost half a goal less than expected per game. But their underlying numbers represent a vast improvement on last season, when only the Premier League’s three relegated sides conceded more xG. That new-found solidity has been the backbone of their strong start under Frank.
Sunderland
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Chris Weatherspoon on why they can catch Arsenal: That Sunderland are even in this conversation is at once testament to the remarkable work being done at the north-east club and hilarious. Four years ago this week, they lost 5-1 at Rotherham United in League One, English football’s third tier; now they sit three spots from English football’s summit.
Talk to anyone on Wearside and this season’s aim remains unchanged: survival. Anything else is a bonus but with 17 points in the bag already, it’s fun to get a little carried away. Life is for living, and all that.
Their chances of ‘doing a Leicester’ look remote but the air of positivity is well-founded, not least after Saturday’s win at Club World Cup champions Chelsea, which was no less than Regis Le Bris’ side deserved. The Frenchman has quickly moulded a slew of new signings into an imposing defensive unit. Behind Arsenal, they’ve conceded the joint-least goals in the division. Marshalled by the unflappable Granit Xhaka in midfield, the summer’s necessary splurge looks justified so far.
Xhaka and Sunderland welcome Arsenal, his previous English club, to the Stadium of Light next week for what now appears a very tasty tussle under the Saturday evening lights. Win that one, and people really might start to believe in miracles.
Why they won’t: The league table never lies but perhaps it tells a fib or two now and then. The last time a promoted club had this many points after nine games was Hull City in 2008-09; they managed only two more victories the rest of the way, finishing 17th and avoiding relegation by a point.
Sunderland’s great start has been aided by good fixtures, but those are turning. The trip to Chelsea was meant to be the beginning of their grounding and, while that was emphatically avoided at Stamford Bridge, the next two months still look arduous. Within the next 11 games, they play Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Manchester City (twice), Newcastle and Spurs.
The back end of that run of fixtures won’t be helped when several of their impressive new signings depart for the Africa Cup of Nations, which runs from just before Christmas into January. Congolese midfielder Noah Sadiki will be especially missed.
There’s also the matter of sustainability. Le Bris’ boys aren’t creating a lot and have the fourth-lowest attacking xG in the league to date. A title push on those numbers would be ludicrous. Just as well Sunderland’s ambitions remain a fair sight lower than being champions for the first time since the 1930s – though they’ve certainly ticked up a notch since the summer.
What the data says: Leicester’s miracle a decade ago aside, Sunderland’s counterpunching style is not one that usually delivers titles. As the territory plot below shows, they have not dominated games this season in the way the more established heavyweights have. Momentum has its own mystical qualities, but even the most delirious Sunderland fan would admit that this is unlikely to last.
Manchester City
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Jordan Campbell on why they can catch Arsenal: Erling Haaland. In the Norwegian striker, City have arguably the best goalscorer in the world, and someone who looks destined to break the 30-goal barrier for the fourth season running. Arsenal have not had a player do that since Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2019-20.
While they have vastly improved the depth of the squad, finally investing heavy sums in forward areas, the strategy of spreading their goals throughout the team is still to prove it can outperform a freakish individual such as Haaland.
The addition of Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal means City can now make the argument they possess the league’s best individual player at both ends of the pitch. While Arsenal are about the collective, having two such giant figures could prove pivotal if the race is close on its final stretch — the very period City tend to come into their own.
Why they won’t: Rodri has not been able to return from the knee injury that wrecked his 2024-25 season and stay fit for any length of time yet. He is fundamental to this team’s balance and flow.
Without him, City are going to find it difficult to find consistency of selection or performance. There have been several games this season already in which they have looked defensively fragile, albeit far less than around this time last year. Until they solve those issues, it feels like Arsenal are going to be too strong. Arteta’s men could even break Chelsea’s record for fewest goals conceded this season. It is a target that has been brewing for some time, having posted the best defensive numbers two years running.
It can be argued whether Arsenal’s ceiling is as high as City’s, but their floor is certainly much higher. That should mean that this time, with no other team likely to post a points total above 90, the title is finally theirs.
What the data says: City have never relied on their power centre-forward this much, and, as Jordan has written, title-winning teams generally boast a healthier spread of goalscorers. Arsenal are certainly pitching in from all corners, with 11 individuals finding the net already, the most in the league. Guardiola’s side, who have just four other scorers not named Haaland, need to find that sort of variety, and quickly.
Manchester United
W5 D1 L3
Carl Anka on why they can catch Arsenal: United have not finished above Arsenal in the league since 2020-21. Still, if we are to momentarily play devil’s advocate, the best case for a record 21st league title at Old Trafford comes via a fixture list with no European commitments or any further Carabao Cup ties. Head coach Ruben Amorim has previously spoken of the training-ground value that can be found in only playing one game a week, and they’ve been much improved in recent wins over Brighton, Liverpool and Sunderland.
United narrowly lost 1-0 to Arsenal at home to kick off the campaign in August, but they look to be getting stronger with every win. A lot could change between now and their rematch at the Emirates in late January. A Premier League season is a long process.
Why they won’t: Recent wins suggest that while Amorim is beginning to settle on a starting XI that can challenge for the European places, his approach asks too much from too few players to make them real title contenders.
Bryan Mbeumo, Amad and Noussair Mazraoui will all depart for the Africa Cup of Nations in December, leaving him without some of his best technicians. United also lack strength in depth in defensive midfield, an issue that can be mitigated so long as Casemiro plays closer to his 2022-23 self, but the team noticeably loses attacking shape/finesse following the Brazilian’s late-game substitutions.
Arsenal’s squad, meanwhile, has reached a critical mass of talent, honed into a robust team by an excellent coach over several seasons.
United are still learning how to walk in step with the Premier League’s best again. Figuring out how to outrun them in a nine-month marathon? That will surely take a few more years.
What the data says: United’s significant summer spending on new attackers has quickly borne fruit, with their attacking metrics markedly improved, as shown by the rolling expected goals chart below. They have steadied the ship defensively too, but it is this added firepower that has excited fans, fuelling dreams of an unlikely title charge.
Liverpool
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Gregg Evans on why they can catch Arsenal: The club’s attacking riches. Once Alexander Isak gets up and running, he’ll start terrorising defenders like he used to do in a Newcastle shirt. Florian Wirtz will also find his feet, despite all the current negativity surrounding him. Oh, and Mohamed Salah is back among the goals too. What you’ll see now is a player with a little more confidence and someone more likely to make an impact at important moments.
Liverpool have far too much quality to continue losing. Once Ryan Gravenberch returns, and Alexis Mac Allister shakes off this rusty patch, they’ll be fine… even if it means deploying Dominik Szoboszlai in every position on the pitch, presumably other than goalkeeper, at some stage of the season.
Why they won’t: Losing four games in a row is bad for any team, let alone the defending champions, and it’s going to take a serious wobble up above for things to change.
Injuries are also adding up, and Liverpool are one central-defensive setback away from a crisis. There’s little chance of both Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk staying fit all season, and even if they do, they’ll need a rest at some point, with Joe Gomez the only alternative.
What the data says: While Arsenal have mastered the art of eking out wins through set-piece prowess, Liverpool’s struggles in this area offer a stark contrast. Since the start of last season, only Fulham and Manchester City have converted a smaller share of their set-piece chances. They’ve lost their last four games by a single goal, and finding that extra edge from dead balls could be what turns those narrow defeats into points.
Aston Villa
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Jacob Tanswell on why they can catch Arsenal: They have one of the world’s best managers, somebody able to defeat the best teams and overcome the best tactical minds. Unai Emery has now beaten Pep Guardiola at home three times in a row and has lost to Mikel Arteta once in four matches, winning two of them.
Villa boast the best home record of any Premier League side over the past two years. Now that rhythm and confidence have been restored, they are rarely defeated, possessing the ability to roll from one game to another, within a congested fixture schedule, without appearing overexerted or lacking. They can grind out wins due to a spine — Emiliano Martinez, Ezri Konsa, Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn, Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins — that can rival any other side.
Unlike other potential competition for Arsenal, this is an experienced group who have been together for a long time and know every granular detail of their manager’s approach. And as Guardiola said of Villa on Sunday, “this is a Champions League team… a top, top team.”
Why they won’t: Now for some realism. Frankly, every bit of evidence will lead you to realise Villa have no chance of winning this title. They have the Europa League on Thursdays until at least the end of January, adding to the workload, and are a squad, despite growing in strength, which is imbalanced and lacking in key positions following a turbulent summer.
Yes, they can beat strong teams, especially at Villa Park, but are often left frustrated against certain tactical, low-block setups, often found when they face middling to lower Premier League outfits. The goal this season is to qualify for Europe again — finishing ahead of Arsenal, or even trying to, would be the most exceptional achievement.
What the data says: Villa’s form has dramatically improved after their stodgy start, but their underlying metrics betray a side still searching for their groove. Only West Ham and Burnley have a lower expected goal difference per game — hardly the sort of company a title contender wants to keep.
Chelsea
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Cerys Jones on why they can catch Arsenal: Being able to beat the defending champions is a pretty good litmus test of title credentials.
Chelsea’s win against Liverpool was particularly impressive because of its context: fresh from a very poor defeat to Brighton, just about squeezing past Lincoln City of League One in the Carabao Cup, and coping with a long injury list that includes talisman Cole Palmer. The fact that Chelsea beat the 2024-25 title winners while so far from full strength and form is a real statement.
Their Club World Cup triumph in the summer has surely done wonders for the players’ confidence and the ‘Cole Palmer FC’ allegations are weakening: Chelsea just won four games in a row without the 23-year-old. His return, and that of striker Liam Delap, will bolster an attack that is already the joint-highest scoring in the league.
Why they won’t: That four-game winning streak ground to a halt on Saturday in a home loss to promoted Sunderland that showed as much about Chelsea’s shortcomings as the win against Liverpool did about their strengths. Enzo Maresca’s side allowed the game to drift, struggled to break down Sunderland’s block, and poor decisions let them down defensively at the end.
At times, they have been their own worst enemies: losses to Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion could have turned out very differently without straight red cards for Robert Sanchez and Trevoh Chalobah. Self-inflicted suspensions, along with that considerable injury list, have denied them consistency.
Chelsea can go toe-to-toe with top sides — see the Club World Cup final against recently-crowned Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain and that defeat of Liverpool — but those dramatic, ‘statement’ results have not been backed up with the gritty, often dull, wins that all champions need.