Chelsea are looking to maintain their push for a UEFA Champions League place when they host London rivals Tottenham Hotspur at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League on Thursday evening (UK time).
Enzo Maresca’s hosts started the week sitting fourth in the Premier League table, but that may have changed by the time this game kicks off. Manchester City (5th), Newcastle United (6th), and Brighton & Hove Albion (7th) all play on Wednesday night, and the race for a top-four spot is so tight at the moment that all three chasing sides have the chance to leapfrog Chelsea ahead of Thursday night fixture.
What is clear is that Chelsea are favourites, and deservedly so. As our odds table above shows, the hosts are 1.63 (13/20) to claim all three points, while Tottenham Hotspur are 5.0 (4/1) to secure an away win. The Draw is available at a best price of 15/4 (4.75).
Chelsea go into the game 10 places and 15 points above Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League standings. That gap is a fair reflection of the difference in quality between the sides this season: the Blues have been unequivocally the better of the two sides. It will take a monumental effort from Tottenham to win, and even earning a point may be beyond the visitors, given the difference in class between the two teams.
Chelsea’s home form is a solid W8-D4-L2, while Tottenham’s away form is a concern: Ange Postecoglou’s players have lost eight of their 14 (W5-D1-L8) Premier League games on the road this season.
Chelsea also hold a clear head-to-head advantage: they have won nine of their last 12 Premier League games (W9-D2-L1) against the opponents they face here, including their highly entertaining 4-3 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on December 8 last year.
The only concern for Chelsea is their unimpressive recent form: they have lost three of their last five Premier League games (W2-D0-L3), and won only four of their last 10 (W4-D2-L4).
Their home form is more reassuring, however: they are W4-D1-L0 from their last five Premier League fixtures at Stamford Bridge, averaging 2.4 goals a game across the five matches in question.
Best bet
Whichever way you look at this game, it is close to impossible to make a case for anything other than a home victory. Chelsea have clearly been the better of the two sides over the 2024-25 season to date, and for those that believe head-to-head records have a bearing on the outcome of matches, the hosts are clearly in the driving seat on this metric as well.
Chelsea’s recent home form is a third and final reason to expect Maresca’s players to collect all three points here. If the odds-on price on Chelsea triumphing is too short for you, however, then there are other ways to consider supporting the hosts.
Chelsea the Smart Handicap Selection
If, like us, you believe Chelsea will win, but are seeking bigger odds than the 1.65 (13/20) available on Chelsea simply earning the three points, then the Asian Handicap market is worth considering.
With an Asian Handicap pick, you award a handicap – which can be positive or negative – to the team of your choosing before the game kicks-off. You then add the handicap that you selected before the match to the scoreline at the end of the game to see if you have a winning selection.
Best bet
Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap is available at 2.05 (21/20). With this pick, your stakes will be refunded if Chelsea win the game by a single goal (as the handicap will have been equalled). You will have a winning selection if Chelsea win by two goals or more. If Chelsea draw or lose, your selection will lose (as it would if you simply backed Chelsea in the Match Odds market).
Given that we expect Chelsea to win, we are happy to make Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap our headline selection on the match. We feel there is little downside to this pick, as our stakes will either be refunded or earn a profit in the event of Chelsea winning.
The advantage of backing Chelsea via this method rather than simply on the Match Odds market is that our selection will win at bigger odds if Chelsea win by two or more goals.
Top selection – Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap (2.05)
Go Against the Goals Markets
A second selection to consider is to go against the market where the goals count is concerned.
Over 3.5 Goals is available at odds of 2.04 (26/25). That is the market’s way of saying that there is a 49 percent chance of the game having four or more goals.
Is this an accurate prediction? Based on how games involving these two sides have played out so far this season, we believe it is not.
Only 35 percent of these two sides’ Premier League games so far this season have featured four or more goals. Taking into account only Chelsea’s home games and Tottenham’s away games, the number of games that has featured four or more goals drops to 32 percent.
Best bet
Based on fixtures already played this season, the odds of this game having Over 3.5 Goals appears, to us, to be closer to 3.0 (2/1) than the 2.04 (26/25) available. Perhaps the market is reacting to the fact that the first meeting between the teams this season ended in a 4-3 win for Chelsea, or to the fact that both managers have generally encouraged an attacking style of play this season.
Given that Over 3.5 Goals has occurred in relatively few games involving these two sides this season, however, we are happy to be on the other side of the line. For that reason, Under 3.5 Goals at 1.8 (4/5) is our second pick on the game
Top selection – Under 3.5 Goals (1.8)