Roberto De Zerbi‘s task of keeping Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League may involve more than just wins, as the North London side must improve their goal difference.
The margins are extremely narrow at the bottom of the Premier League, with just a few points separating those battling it out for survival.
De Zerbi has been appointed to steady the ship, and while getting wins on the board will help, the Italian must get Tottenham scoring.
Relegation rivals West Ham are beginning to show signs of goalscoring and defensive form. Even if Tottenham can keep up with results, that could haunt them.
Now, the level of improvement from Nuno Espirito Santo’s side ahead of Tottenham’s run-in should cause concern.
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West Ham currently trending to catch Tottenham’s goal difference
The job at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is not one that is easy. In this campaign, on many occasions, the players have failed to live up to expectations on both ends of the pitch.
Now, the margin of Tottenham’s goals scored versus goals conceded could come back to bite them.
While Tottenham have a lead of seven in the goal difference tally, as shown by the graph created by markstats, the pendulum has begun to swing in terms of expected goals and expected goals conceded.
In terms of the actual difference, the Hammers over a five-game period have remained even with zero. Meanwhile, Spurs have a total of negative nine.
It is a trend that must simply be nipped in the bud, as Tottenham’s ability to score and keep out goals may be just as important as their final points tally come the end of the season.
Tottenham striker Richarlison could be key to improving goal output ahead of the final few weeks.
Goal difference may be a rare decider in the relegation battle
Goal difference is there to be a deciding factor should points not be enough to separate the sides. It is not often the definitive variable, but it can happen.
In the history of the Premier League, this statistic has sent a team down in 15 per cent of the seasons over a 33-year period – a total of five times.
However, a team has not gone down to the Championship on goal difference since 2007-2008, when Fulham remained in the top flight above Reading.
While it may not be a frequent decider, De Zerbi cannot risk losing out on this statistic, especially after the Hammers gained a massive plus four against Wolves.
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