If last Thursday’s 3-1 win over Bodø/Glimt in the Europa League semifinal first leg was Tottenham Hotspur’s most significant match since the 2019 Champions League final, then the return fixture in Norway is even more important. Spurs carry a two goal advantage into the away fixture, and if they can win the tie over two legs will have another chance to play for a major European trophy.
However, they are playing a team in Bodø/Glimt that lost only once at their home stadium, Aspmyra Stadion, in the competition, scoring 19 goals with a +11 goal differential in the process. Clearly Bodø/Glimt are a formidable team at home, and home advantage is a real and statistical thing in soccer. But why? What is it about them that makes them so dangerous at home, and are Spurs susceptible to any of those factors?
In looking at this season’s Europa League, there are three factors that come up again and again when discussing Bodø/Glimt’s home form in Europa League play: the weather, the pitch, and whether their opponents took them seriously. I dug into all three of them to see if Spurs supporters should be worried about any of them ahead of Thursday’s match in Norway.
Factor #1: the Arctic weather
Bodø/Glimt famously play their home football at the Aspmyra Stadium in Bodø, Norway, 150 miles inside the Arctic circle. The Arctic, you say? That’s cold! Surely there are, like, icebergs around the stadium and penguins walking around the pitch, right?
Well first of all, penguins are Antarctic birds, not Arctic. But secondly, just because a team plays in the Arctic Circle doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re playing at a frozen Lambeau field in January. Curious, I compiled the weather conditions from the Bodø airport at kick-off for each of Bodø/Glimt’s Europa League home matches, and the results were rather surprising.
Not only has it not been that cold, the weather has been quite balmy. Just for fun, I also included the temperature in central London on the same evening and Bodø/Glimt’s xG for each match.
Yes, there are a couple of cold nights in there, and that shouldn’t be fully discounted, but it’s really not that different than any number of matches played in England in December and January. And for the most part, the weather in Bodø was pretty close to the weather in London. And in case you’re wondering, the forecast this Thursday in Bodø is a chance of showers, high of 48º, low of 43º.
Interestingly, Bodø/Glimt’s xG more or less tracks with their overall score. I know this is a flawed statistic, but it does lend credence to the idea that they weren’t just lucky. The two exceptions were the loss to Qarabag, where they underperformed their xG, and the 5-2 win over Twente, which was juiced by two periods of extra time.
What COULD be a factor is the wind. The Aspmyra Stadion is on the coast, and the wind can really whip around in that small ground. Swirling winds of 20-25 mph might be a possibility and could provide another challenge. However, the wind is indiscriminate as to which team it impacts, so this could balance out.
In short, weather really isn’t, and probably won’t be, a factor.
Factor #2: Aspmyra Stadim’s artificial turf
This one is a lot harder to quantify. Bodø/Glimt, famously, play on a field with an artificial turf surface with undersoil heating at the Aspmyra Stadium. This was installed in 2006 when it was determined that keeping a grass field in decent condition was near impossible inside the Arctic Circle.
There’s been a lot of talk about Bodø/Glimt’s home record and how much the turf surface impacts visiting teams. The biggest concern is that playing on an artificial field could be detrimental to players unused to it, particularly players who are prone to hamstring injuries like Micky van de Ven and Richarlison. That said, while modern turf pitches play differently on grass, they’re not statistically less safe than grass fields — just ask any NFL player.
For what it’s worth, Tottenham have only played two matches on an artificial surface in the time I’ve been a fan — the 3-0 extra time win over Tamworth in this fall’s FA Cup, and a 3-2 loss to Young Boys in the 2010 Champions League playoff first leg. Ange Postecoglou has experience playing against Bodø/Glimt in Norway, with his Celtic team losing 2-0 in the Europa Conference League in 2022. There’s reporting that Spurs players struggled with the turf at Tamworth, with Dan Kilpatrick saying on The Tottenham Way podcast (via TBR Football) that it took some players a few days to recover, though it was noted the Tamworth pitch might have been of lower quality.
“So, you know, they’ve got opportunities to prepare. And in that sense, they’ve obviously had the Tamworth game that you mentioned. I imagine the Bodo/Glimt pitch is significantly better than Tamworth’s was. A lot of the Spurs players were feeling that game for days and days afterwards. So you kind of hope that’s not the case next week.”
Bodø/Glimt are certainly more familiar playing on an artificial surface than visitors, and are said to take advantage of a faster playing field to facilitate quicker passing than what is capable on a grass field.
That’s certainly what Lazio head coach Marco Baroni thinks. Lazio went to Norway on April 10 in the quarterfinals and lost 2-0, with Baroni quick to attribute the plastic pitch to their defeat.
“They had speed in their exchanges because of the artificial pitch. I believe that the second leg will be a different game and qualification is still open. They are a fresh, brilliant team. We will rebalance at the Olimpico in the second leg, and we believe that we can still secure qualification.”
Lazio came achingly close to knocking Bodø/Glimt out in the return fixture in Italy but lost the tie in a penalty shootout despite winning the match 3-1.
On that same Tottenham Way podcast, Terje Flateby reiterated that a match on Bodø/Glimt’s turf absolutely plays faster than a match on grass.
“Yeah, let’s take the pitch first. It’s a first-class artificial pitch. So it’s not a bad pitch in that way. But the ball goes really, really fast, especially when it rains and it’s wet. They, of course, water the pitch before it starts. But the ball, if you speak to professional players in Norway who plays a lot on artificial pitches and also on grass, it’s almost a different game.
“So it’s very difficult to set the press because the ball goes so much faster at the artificial pitch. And the Bodo/Glimt, they are a great team, but they’re also a reason why they’re so good at home. It’s also because of the pitch. So that will be a big challenge for Spurs and how to attack this game. But if they go gung-ho pressing, Bodo/Glimt will, of course, just carve them open.”
In the first leg, Tottenham had great success by staying compact defensively, not pressing especially high, letting Bodø/Glimt have the ball, and taking advantage of their superior athletic ability. I expect they’ll play in a similar way in Norway to try to neutralize any inherent speed advantage and keep the ball in front of them. It’s a challenge, but the 2-0 first leg lead will help significantly.
Factor #3: Rotation
The other question I had when considering Bodø/Glimt’s strength at home was whether their opponents were playing full strength sides, or rotated ones. Bodø/Glimt played very strong teams in each of their home Europa League matches, but I wondered whether their opponents were taking this match as seriously.
Historical lineup information for some teams (e.g. Qarabag) was difficult to find, and as I’m not an expert in Glimt’s opposition I’m not going to pretend to be definitive in this section. But I did compare lineups from the Europa League matches with those from matches before and afterwards, and from what I can tell, most teams traveled to Norway and played fairly strong sides — mild to moderate rotation, but with some starters coming on as substitutes. And except for Qarabag, Bodø/Glimt beat them all, sometimes handily.
Now, can we look at this and definitively say that teams like Besiktas, Olympiacos, and Porto came in and underestimated Bodø/Glimt? Not really. But the data does suggest that while there was some rotation, none of them expected to waltz into Norway and beat the brakes off them.
Tottenham will be playing their strongest available lineup, because the Europa League is now the only competition that matters to them. While the Bodø/Glimt that takes the field will be different than the one that played in London — all five of their missing players, including club captain Patrick Berg, should be back and available — there’s little chance that Spurs will be looking past their Norwegian opponents
Conclusion
Of the three issues highlighted above — the weather, the pitch, the rotation — only one would appear to be potentially significant. The artificial turf field will likely be a challenge, but only in the sense that the match could be played at a much faster pace, and with the home side more familiar with the intricacies of their home field. Indications are that Bodø/Glimt’s pitch is a high quality one (unlike at Tamworth) which should alleviate some injury concerns. Otherwise, Spurs won’t be looking past their opponents at all, and the weather shouldn’t be a significant factor.
Instead, if Tottenham Hotspur struggle in Norway it will almost certainly be because Bodø/Glimt are simply a very good team playing in a small league. Their making it this far is not an anomaly. Bodø/Glimt deserves to be here every bit as much as Tottenham does, and Spurs will need to play at least as well as they did last Thursday at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to ensure progression to the final.