The past four matches have yielded three draws and a lone win (against a League One side) for Tottenham Hotspur. Each of the last two contests required very late equalizers to even salvage a point, and truthfully this wobbly form appears more flattering than it should. The reasons for these struggles are not exactly surprising, but to admit the vibes are drifting towards those of the previous regime is a haunting realization.
With the October International Window nearly here, how Tottenham enters the break will determine if the start to the season is good enough to compete on multiple fronts or has been completely washed away by a mediocre past month. Leeds United is perhaps slightly overachieving, but still a struggling side. However, that did not matter when Spurs hosted Wolves last weekend, and after a long voyage midweek, the outlook here is questionable.
Match Details
Date: Saturday, October 4
Time: 7:30 am ET, 12:30 pm UK
Location: Elland Road, Leeds
TV: USA Network (US), TNT Sports 1 (UK)
Table: Leeds (t-9th, 8 pts), Tottenham (t-4th, 11 pts)
Leeds is back in the Premier League after two seasons away, having spent 2020-23 in the top tier. Tottenham won five of the six matches between the sides during that stretch, only losing at Elland Road late in the 2020/21 campaign. The most recent meeting in this fixture was on the final day in May 2023 — Leeds needed a lot of help to avoid relegation, but could not even hold up its own end of the bargain, suffering a 4-1 defeat thanks to goals from Harry Kane (x2), Pedro Porro, and Lucas Moura.
Three Big Questions
Ball move how? The biggest struggle for this club is — and will continue to be — ball progression. Frank has limited options for progressive passing, yet continues to exacerbate the issue by frequently starting multiple deep lying midfielders who are known more for their recycling and defensive efforts. It is not his fault that Dejan Kulusevski remains out and that the transfer window featured many misses on this exact need, but it now becomes his responsibility to find a way forward.
While Leeds will surrender possession, the team sits fourth in the league in tackles and fifth in interceptions. The midfield combination of Sean Longstaff, Ethan Ampadu, and Anton Stach have been extremely active and productive and will be a physical test for a side that is really struggling to generate any sort of fluidity in attack. Pure talent says Spurs should be able to produce something, but recent matches suggest it will not come easily at all (and will likely only happen after falling behind).
What is it about Elland Road? In the league, Leeds are 2-2-2 on the season, but unbeaten at home, including a draw against Bournemouth last weekend that probably should have resulted in all three points. The three fixtures at Elland Road seem to be Leeds’ best on both ends of the pitch, which is not surprising given the fact a visiting team has not picked up a victory in a league match here in over a year.
Obviously, the vast majority of those opponents were in the Championship, and Spurs have actually picked up seven points from three road fixtures thus far. Ironically, playing lower sides in their home venue may be the preferred option, with the odds of facing conservative low blocks less likely than in North London. Still, Leeds are beating expectations early on and will feel that there is every right to claim a result here.
Who will actually capitalize? Prior to the 2-2 draw against the Cherries, the previous three matches for Leeds featured an average xG line of 0.67-1.07. With how Tottenham has been playing, I am not sure how confident I would feel in a low event match; recently, it seems like opponents have been lethal on counters from sloppy turnovers, while Spurs have been anything but clinical.
The hope then is that this match breaks open a bit, which definitely will come down to the midfield. If Spurs can find a way to generate some shots, this defense is not exactly impenetrable, but stagnation outside the box remains a very real possibility. With tallies in four of the last five, good old Owen Goal might be the best option, but that requires peppering the ball at the net with frequency, which is far from guaranteed.