Tottenham Hotspur could feel hard done by after Monday night's 1-1 draw with Leeds United. A win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would have confirmed Premier League survival after what has been an utterly disastrous season, following West Ham's loss at Newcastle United on Sunday.
However, the question that remains unanswered is whether or not things may have been very different had some rather controversial refereeing decisions gone in their favour?
On Monday night, the result could have swung in their favour, had referee Jarred Gillett been advised to change his decision, or even go to the pitch-side monitor for a tackle by Lukas Nmecha on James Maddison in the thirteenth minute of stoppage time. Maddison, returning from a 277-day ACL injury lay-off, took to social media to voice his displeasure at the decision, claiming that Nmecha had not touched the ball.
The VAR, which was operated by Craig Pawson during that clash with Daniel Farke's side, looked at the decision for less than a minute before informing on-field referee Gillett that there was no infringement. Earlier in the clash, Gillett was sent to the pitch-side monitor to overturn his original decision of no penalty after Mathys Tel caught Leeds' Ethan Ampadu on the face, with the penalty being awarded, allowing Dominic Calvert-Lewin to send The Whites back up north with a point.
Now, obviously, the penalty being awarded to Roberto De Zerbi's side would not guarantee a goal or the points, but it would have provided a huge opportunity for Spurs, as well as being their first penalty of the season.
Based on the fantasy that those decisions went in their favour, the results in matches that they have not won may have painted a totally different picture of their poor campaign, which sees them needing one point from their final two matches to maintain their top-flight status. In fact, without VAR, they would already have secured safety, and had the correct decisions on the pitch been made originally, it begs the question that they may have found themselves even higher in the standings.
Gillett at the centre of controversy
The controversy surrounding the game with Leeds will not be the first time that The Lilywhites will feel hard done by when Jarred Gillett has taken charge of their matches throughout the 2025/26 season.
Rewinding to November, Tottenham suffered a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in a game which ultimately turned out to be the beginning of the end for Thomas Frank. However, in the second half of that London Derby, Enzo Fernandez was lucky to escape a red card for endangering the safety of an opponent, as the Argentine put his studs on Joao Palhinha's knee.
In January, in what now looks to be a pivotal match in terms of who may come out of the relegation battle on top, Spurs lost against West Ham at home, as Gillett struck again. A 94th-minute goal from Callum Wilson dramatically sealed the points, but in the 84th-minute, it was simply ludicrous that a penalty was not awarded to the hosts for a handball by Ollie Scarles. His arm was fully outstretched as he prodded the ball away from Conor Gallagher, but VAR James Bell checked and cleared the on-field decision.
Even in the reverse fixture in September, which saw Tottenham win 3-0, there was a highly questionable decision to disallow a first-half header from Cristian Romero following the slightest of collisions between Micky van de Ven and Kyle Walker-Peters. Gillett was also the referee that day.
And it all circles back to the Australian, where Spurs will again feel disappointed that The Hammers' loss at St James' Park wasn't more severe. Before the opener, Tomas Soucek clearly handled the ball to block a Bruno Guimaraes cross-cum-shot, whilst the Brazilian was then the subject of another judgment that went Soucek's way in the second half. Having been fouled by the Czech international, Guimaraes was already on the floor, and the whistle had already been blown, when Soucek booted him twice. But Gillett, his assistant and the VAR all failed to spot it.
Coincidentally, Pawson was the official operating the VAR, and those decisions will feel like a kick in the teeth to the onlooking Spurs fans, who feel the pair should have awarded their side a spot kick in the dying embers of the draw with Leeds.
Are Spurs refereed differently?
Cristian Romero was rightly sent off for his studs-up challenge on Casemiro during their 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford in February. Nevertheless, just a few hours later, Brian Brobbey did not see red for a similar tackle against Arsenal, whilst just three weeks earlier, Manchester United were able to count themselves lucky as Diogo Dalot remained on the pitch despite an arguably worse challenge than the two mentioned above.
In December, Xavi Simons was rightly sent off for his tackle on international teammate Virgil van Dijk in the 2-1 loss against Liverpool, but yet again, other decisions for very similar challenges were treated differently and far more leniently. Hwang Hee-Chan committed what could be considered a worse offence than Spurs' Dutchman as he planted his studs onto the calf of Everton's Harrison Armstrong, whilst Phil Foden also avoided red for a carbon copy of Simons' tackle just a matter of weeks later.
However, the pick of the bunch will come from the North London Derby dismantling under Igor Tudor. Six minutes after falling behind for the second time on the night, Randal Kolo Muani was adjudged to have fouled Gabriel as he scored what would have been an equaliser, and Peter Bankes disallowed the goal.
The introduction of 'Match Officials Mic'd Up' has allowed PGMOL Chief Howard Webb to shed light on the thinking behind each decision, whilst the release of audio, which shares the conclusions drawn by the match officials, has allowed fans to understand the difficulty of their job.
However, in a rare scenario, just days after that decision in the defeat against Arsenal, the show saw match referee Bankes exclusively highlight the thought process of his decision, as opposed to the usual analysis by Webb. Audio released by PGMOL captured Bankes telling the complaining Tottenham players that it was a "clear foul, end of." But just a week later, Tudor's men fell to defeat at Fulham and found themselves on the wrong side of the exact same call.
Radu Dragusin was pushed in the back by Raul Jimenez, but the goal was allowed to stand. It sparked fury from within the Spurs fanbase, as well as their Interim Head Coach, who subsequently received a fine by the FA for his comments surrounding consistency, after The Lilywhites had a goal chalked off seven days prior for Kolo Muani placing two hands onto the back of Gabriel.
In December, as they lost against Liverpool, Hugo Ekitike's eventual winner was aided by his two-handed push on captain Romero, but that goal was also allowed to stand.
Key Match Incidents (KMI) Panel disagreement
Introduced during the 2022/23 season, every refereeing decision is evaluated by an independent body known as the Key Match Incidents (KMI) Panel. The body is made up of three former players or coaches, as well as one individual from the PGMOL and one from the Premier League.
On New Year's Day, it was ruled by the KMI Panel that a penalty should have been awarded to Tottenham in their 0-0 draw with Brentford for a foul on Archie Gray. With the game finishing goalless, a chance to open the scoring from twelve yards out may have seen The Lilywhites two points better off than they currently are.
In February, it was judged that Rodri should have been shown a second yellow card, having committed both a high challenge on Gallagher and then a cynical foul on Wilson Odobert, despite already walking the tightrope. Spurs did come back from 2-0 down to pick up a point in that game, but again, it remains unforeseen as to whether or not Manchester City being reduced to ten men would have allowed them to register an additional two points on the board.
Arguably, the worst of them all came in De Zerbi's first game as Head Coach, as they lost 1-0 at Sunderland. Brian Brobbey should have been shown a second yellow card in the second half, with the final factor being his needless push on Romero, which led to the Argentine's season being brought to an abrupt end in April.
Coincidentally, Rob Jones was the referee in both the draw with City and the defeat against The Black Cats, with both games seeing both guilty parties get away with multiple fouls having been booked already.
De Zerbi disgust
The Italian Head Coach, who was given just seven games to save Spurs' season, looks set to achieve that now, and they could wrap it up with a game to spare when they travel to Chelsea on Tuesday night. A win will ensure it is guaranteed, whilst a draw all-but-confirms it, with a mammoth swing in goal difference needed for West Ham to stand any chance of surviving the drop on the final day.
But the former Brighton tactician may believe it could have already been secured had decisions gone in their favour, even in his short time as Spurs boss. They could have secured a different result against Sunderland had they been reduced to ten men, but there is also an argument that Regis Le Bris' side could have had a second man sent off.
Luke O'Nien appeared to catch Destiny Udogie on the calf as the Italian raced through one-on-one with Robin Roefs, but referee Jones and the VAR, operated by James Bell - the same official who failed to award a penalty to Spurs for handball in the loss at home to West Ham in January - remarkably saw nothing wrong with the challenge.
Factoring in the decision not to give Spurs a penalty in the matchup with Leeds, there could be a case that, under De Zerbi, they could be, at the bare minimum, four points better off. That would have secured Premier League survival by now.
Even in his first couple of months at the helm, De Zerbi has appeared visibly frustrated by the way Tottenham are refereed throughout the course of matches. Whether that be through different levels of leniency shown by referees to his team compared to the opposition, or the poor decisions officials are making.
This could also be directed to the Italian himself, who has already been booked twice in just five matches since being appointed. Meanwhile, other Premier League bosses appear to get away unharmed despite their regular, frustrating antics on the sideline. Roberto De Zerbi was warned about his behaviour in the technical area by referee Jarred Gillett after just eleven minutes in the draw with Leeds, before he was shown a yellow card after Ethan Ampadu clattered into both James Maddison and Joao Palhinha and was not shown a card.
He was visibly upset with the refereeing performance on display in that game. Speaking after the full-time whistle against Leeds, De Zerbi said, "The first minute until the end of the game, the referee went to me, ‘if you go out (of the technical area), yellow card,’ and I think they were not calm today.
"Maybe they suffered the pressure of yesterday, the West Ham-Arsenal game and VAR. For sure, we suffer the pressure today for the speed of the ball, for the order of the pitch, and we didn’t play with patience on the ball, frenetic, we were rushed, but also the referee was not calm. I don’t know, I can’t understand the polemic about yesterday's VAR because it was a foul, 200 per cent, not 100 per cent, if you want to talk about football."
Again, it makes you think whether or not there is a different, far-lower level of tolerance shown towards Tottenham than other teams in the Premier League.
The impact
The decisions aforementioned do not even begin to scratch the surface.
In the 2-2 draw with Newcastle in December, Rodrigo Bentancur conceded a penalty despite being placed in a headlock by Dan Burn. When Spurs drew 1-1 with Sunderland in January, Brobbey could have easily seen red in that game too - he later scored the equaliser. Virgil van Dijk was lucky to remain on the pitch after a possible DOGSO (Denial of an Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity) offence when The Lilywhites drew 1-1 at Anfield in March.
It is factually impossible to predict the exact outcomes of these games had decisions gone Tottenham's way. But one thing that is for certain is that there is a maximum of twenty points that could have been handed out differently, and may have landed the North Londoners in a very different position ahead of their final two matches of the season.
There is also the overarching issue of the overall standard of refereeing, which is affecting every team in the league and stirring up a talking point every single week. With that being considered, the table may also look rather different, but it does feel as though no one has been affected to the same level as the sheer scale that Tottenham have.
In an alternative universe, Spurs sit on 58 points and are in a favourable position to secure the final UEFA Champions League spot. In a realistic alternate, they are safe and have been for several weeks, even if just half of the decisions went their way.