Opta predicts Europa League final outcome between Man Utd & Tottenham

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Manchester United face Tottenham Hotspur in the Europa League final on Wednesday night

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Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will do battle in the Europa League final on May 21, with the prize of the showpiece event not only silverware but a place in next season’s Champions League.

Arguably the Premier League’s two greatest underachievers of this season in the league, both clubs are set for their worst-ever Premier League finishes but will find some salvation in winning the trophy which has been their main focus for much of 2025.

For Ruben Amorim’s United, victory in Bilbao for the second time in a month could indicate the beginning of a new dawn and will undoubtedly give the Red Devils the best chance of strengthening in the summer transfer window.

It truly has been a miserable league season for the red half of Manchester, and players and fans alike will need to forget and move on over the summer if the Amorim era is to be a lasting one. Victory over Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs will go a long way to helping that.

Should United lose the final, it will be difficult to justify their position of 16th place in the Premier League table. For a club like Manchester United, simply reaching a final does not constitute a successful season, no matter how admirable their last-minute heroics against Lyon or dominant two-legged display against Athletic Club were - and everyone associated with the club knows it.

In addition, defeat would be devastating for Ineos and United’s financial situation, with the cost-cutting measures taken by the club to raise revenue in recent months well documented.

Opta makes their prediction for Europa League final

The experts at Opta have dusted off their simulation computer which has given its verdict on who is most likely to win the Europa League final on Wednesday - with United coming out on top by the narrowest of margins.

According to the prediction, where 10,000 simulations of the match were recorded, United won 50.7% of the time, with Spurs victorious on 49.3% of the occasions. This reflects how much this match is on a knife edge, with both clubs - and their managers - knowing all too well how important it is to win.

Opta has therefore named United favourites to win as they look to achieve silverware for the third consecutive season, while Spurs seek to win a first major trophy since 2008.

The North Londoners will take heart from their impressive record against the Red Devils this season, with three victories including a 3-0 drubbing at Old Trafford and an enthralling 4-3 EFL Cup quarter-final encounter. United haven’t beaten Spurs in six attempts, with their last victory coming in October 2022.

What both managers have said ahead of the final

Amorim admitted he knows the importance of victory in Bilbao: “I’m stressed already because of the final. If we don’t do it, then it means nothing. But we’re happy to be there, so let’s see.

“It's going to be a big final and we will try to win. It's hard to describe what it's like to be manager of this club, and you want to give the supporters something, because we were so disappointing in the Premier League. It's the least we can do for these fans, for the support they have given us in this tough season.”

Meanwhile, Postecoglou hit back at claims the final means more to his side than to United.

"What do I care what Man United think? Why is that relevant to me?" he said. "You know better than me, you’ve followed this club more than I have. What do you think a trophy would do for this club?

"People are fearing that it might actually happen. They're trying to tear it down and diminish it and try to compare us to Man United."