Our resident FPL expert has made a few changes to his team ahead of Friday’s deadline - he explains all.
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Over the weekend, our resident Fantasy Premier League expert revealed his draft team for the coming campaign. But the decision-making process is never done – and he’s made some changes.
Players from Tottenham Hotspur, Sunderland and Bournemouth have all got the chop, and Manchester United and Brentford stars have appeared in their place. So what’s changed? Over to our expert to explain his thought process and hopefully to give you some food for thought in the process…
Why our FPL expert has dropped Spurs & Sunderland stars
Before I get into the explanation for the tweaks I’ve made ahead of Friday’s deadline, the picture above shows where I’ve landed. As people who saw my original team will notice, there’s been a few changes.
The core of the side is much the same, and I haven’t changed my mind about that many players. The debate about Luke Shaw’s place remains the same, and I may move on if it looks likely that Manchester United will sign a new left-back in the immediate future. But there are a couple of significant changes.
The first is that I’ve dropped Pedro Porro. I named him as a potential must-buy player when the price list first came out, but it now looks as though there’s a very good chance that he won’t play in the opening match of the season having missed the entirety of pre-season following his World Cup run with Spain. I don’t want to invest £5.5m in a defender who ends up on the bench.
Porro won’t stay on the sidelines for long, of course, and I may very well bring him in when I make my first few transfers. That also gives us the chance to get some proof of concept on Tottenham Hotspur as a whole – let’s be honest, even with all the investment they’ve made in the team, it would scarcely be a complete shock if they were still struggling, and Roberto De Zerbi’s defences haven’t historically been watertight. I’m happy to leave him out for a little while.
Two other players have made way: Sunderland’s Enzo Le Fée and Bournemouth’s Rayan. Guess what? I named both of those players as must-buys too. But dropping them doesn’t mean that I believe that either have become bad assets.
Unless Sunderland really struggle this season – and there are some statistical red flags from last season which suggest that their form could be unsustainable – I still think that Le Fée is tremendous value as a £6.0m midfielder who could easily go past 150 points. I also still think that Rayan has every chance of going at 160-170 points or more, which is a ton for £6.5m. Both would make excellent set-and-forget signings.
So why get rid of them? Because after an awful lot of deliberation, I’ve decided that I just can’t live without Bryan Mbeumo – and that means that I’m contradicting myself yet again…
Why Bryan Mbeumo made our expert’s final FPL team
When the new FPL price lists were first revealed, I didn’t just look at some must-buys – I also looked at some players that I thought were likely to be traps. Mbeumo happened to be one of them.
I haven’t actually changed my mind about that. Over the course of the season, I don’t believe that Mbeumo (or any Manchester United assets beyond Bruno Fernandes) have high enough ceilings to justify their price tags, and Mbeumo didn’t perform well enough as a winger to be worth signing over other players who could be included. But I decided to pick him for the same reason that I still have Shaw despite the doubts about his future as a regular starter – United’s early fixtures are just a bit too good to pass up.
They have arguably the softest early run of games of any team in the Premier League, and while I don’t love Mbeumo’s numbers as a winger, he probably won’t be playing out wide at all.
Benjamin Šeško is expected to miss out for the first game or two thanks to the shin injury he suffered when he crashed into the advertising hoardings against Liverpool earlier this year. The Slovenian is back in training but isn’t expected to start against Hull City this weekend – and Mbeumo will very probably get a few games as the central striker. That temporarily increases his value quite significantly.
I don’t expect to keep Mbeumo for all that long. By the time that Šeško is back in the starting side, I’ll likely be looking to sell the Cameroonian – probably for Rayan to free up some money for the defence, but we’ll see – but you have to pick high-ceiling players when fixtures or their situation suggest a spike in production. I don’t want Mbeumo for the whole season, but I do want him for a few weeks.
To make room, I’ve ‘downgraded’ to playing both Ethan Ampadu and Mamadou Sangaré, who I think are both very fine signings at £5.5m in midfield, and I’ve switched Porro out for an extra £4.5m defender in the shape of Kristoffer Ajer. I don’t expect Ajer to start all season, but he’ll get the nod for now thanks to injuries, and while I’ll want to up my defensive spending eventually I think this team looks great for the first few weeks. After that, I can sell a more expensive midfielder and move the money to the back line.
The only change I might make between now and Friday is Shaw. If there’s any indication that his time as a starter is coming to a rapid end, I’ll switch him out. But I’m happy to carry Shaw and Mbeumo until Manchester United’s fixtures ease off a little, and I’m happy with this team. I just wish I still had room for Rayan…