It’s the race that nobody wants to run, but in the cutthroat world of the Premier League, one that somebody always seems to be on the verge of finishing.
Four managers have already begrudgingly crossed the finish line of this season’s sack circuit, with Ange Postecoglou almost posting a league-record time. The Australian tore through his post at Nottingham Forest in 39 days, nine days shy of Sam Allardyce’s stint at Leeds United in 2023.
The City Ground had already been the site of this year’s first top-flight sacking, with Nuno Espirito Santo only making it to early September. He then replaced the outgoing Graham Potter at West Ham United, a side that — despite languishing in 18th — still sit 11 points above Wolves, who parted ways with Vitor Pereira last month.
Here’s how the current race looks in order of betting favourites…
Thomas Frank, Tottenham Hotspur – 2/1
“If no one gets the time, no one can turn it around.”
Frank by name, frank by nature; the Spurs head coach was candid about the threat to his position after a chastening 3-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Sunday made it just one win in seven Premier League games.
The Dane retains the backing of the club’s hierarchy, The Athletic’s Jack Pitt-Brooke reported on Monday, but the insipid nature of defeat at the City Ground has done little to pad the patience of fans for Daniel Levy’s final managerial appointment.
It was a display that brought back memories of last year’s 17th-place finish, Spurs’ worst in the Premier League era. With Spurs sitting 11th in the table with 22 points, Frank has overseen the club’s worst start to a campaign after 16 games since 2008-09.
That season did improve, as Spurs rallied to finish eighth and narrowly lost the League Cup final on penalties, but — perhaps ominously for Frank — it required a change at the helm. Juande Ramos was given his marching orders in late October, with Harry Redknapp brought in to right the ship.
Reinforcements “definitely” await when the transfer window opens next month, Frank insists, but he has to navigate a gruelling fixture list before they can likely arrive. Liverpool and Sunderland will provide stern tests of Spurs’ grim home form, with Frank having to take his club to Crystal Palace, his old employers Brentford as well as Bournemouth before mid-January.
The club’s backing of Frank and the recent instability mean Spurs are likely desperate to give their manager the time that they didn’t afford Postecoglou. Unless the wheels completely fall off, expect Frank to stay put for the foreseeable.
Scott Parker, Burnley – 10/3
It’s been a case of so near, yet so far for Burnley and Scott Parker during their return to the Premier League. They’ve won plaudits for their pragmatic playing style — but plaudits do not equal points and the Clarets are stuck in 19th and going nowhere fast after seven straight Premier League defeats.
Expectations at Turf Moor coming into this season were already well-managed, given their four previous relegations from the Premier League. That said, if the losses continue to pile up over Christmas, then it’s hard to envisage the club not rolling the dice and swapping Parker for a relegation firefighter. This is one to watch, certainly.
Daniel Farke, Leeds United – 10/3
Seemingly on the verge of sinking mere weeks ago, Farke has made himself a life raft in the fittingly festive Christmas tree shape of a 5-3-2 formation.
A marked change in strategy has given Leeds United renewed hope of beating the drop and their German head coach fresh hope of keeping his position. Having taken 11 points from their first 13 games, the tactical tweak debuted in a valiant (albeit ultimately futile) second-half fightback at Manchester City has helped the team go unbeaten across their last three.
Draws against Liverpool and Brentford built on a famous 3-1 triumph over old rivals Chelsea at Elland Road to start December, opening up a three-point gap to West Ham in 18th.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is back firing and his contributions will be crucial if Leeds are to maintain their momentum across a tricky winter period that sees them play Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Liverpool and Manchester United across their next four fixtures.
From being accused of not knowing what he is doing by his own supporters to lapping up praise as a tactical innovator in less than a month, Farke is surfing tumultuous waters and given their precarious position, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his name in the headlines for the wrong reasons soon.
Rob Edwards, Wolverhampton Wanderers – 5/1
Authors of the worst 16-game start in the history of England’s top four tiers, Wolves are — in the eyes of many onlookers — doomed.
The fact that seemed to be common opinion even before Rob Edwards left his barely-warm seat at Middlesbrough to assume football’s most scorching mantle in the West Midlands would suggest that the former Wolves defender will be judged less harshly than other head coaches.
Five straight losses to open up your managerial tenure would be enough to send alarm bells ringing at most other Premier League outfits (Postecoglou at least managed a couple of draws), but Edwards is operating under the context of a side seemingly long-buried.
And yet, whisper it quietly, there were signs of a pulse at Arsenal on Saturday. Despite 34 points separating the Premier League’s bookending sides, Wolves would have been deserving of a shock point had it not been for a second own goal in the dying seconds at the Emirates.
A compact 5-3-2 shape helped Wolves prevent the leaders from mustering a single shot on target in the opening 45 minutes for the first time in the league this season, providing a platform to build on before Brentford visit Molineux on Saturday.
Arne Slot, Liverpool – 6/1
A Premier League-winning manager under threat? Liverpool are singing off Chelsea’s hymn sheet this Christmas.
Wins over Inter and Brighton have eased the pressure on Arne Slot, whose problems piecing together the Reds’ tattered title defence were exacerbated by Mohamed Salah’s incendiary outburst earlier this month.
The Egyptian winger’s parting assist in a strong showing on Saturday before leaving for the Africa Cup of Nations has, for now at least, soothed tensions, affording Slot some long-awaited breathing room before a trip to Spurs on Saturday.
Dropping Salah tied into Slot’s attempt to make Liverpool more compact following a trio of successive three-goal-margin defeats against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and PSV in November, and the Dutchman’s change has worked, with the reigning English champions unbeaten in the five games since.
With Wolves and Leeds to come at Anfield after this weekend, Slot now has a great opportunity to build that positivity before his side head to Arsenal on January 8.
And the numbers hint at better times ahead, too.
As Conor O’Neill’s excellent piece highlights, Liverpool are out-creating their opponents at an almost league-high rate.
Now, that doesn’t tell the whole story as the piece dives into, but it seems as though Slot has weathered one particular storm and will look to build forward over the festive period.