With less than a third of the Premier League season remaining, there is little separation at the top and at the bottom of the table, and points-per-game hint at one of the most balanced campaigns of recent times.
Fixture congestion, a crowded calendar and mid-season international tournaments have chipped away at the usual hierarchy, leaving more matches decided by fine margins and keeping more teams involved in the relegation battle for longer.
With that in mind, here are four standout fixtures this weekend and the underlying numbers that frame them.
Liverpool vs West Ham United
West Ham have scored 59 per cent of their Premier League goals in the first half (19 of 32), the highest share this season, while Liverpool sit at the other extreme with just 31 per cent of their goals before the interval (13 of 42).
Since the start of 2026, West Ham’s first‑half share has climbed to 82 per cent, and their bleak survival chances have risen with it. Since their away win over Tottenham on January 15, only five teams have taken more points than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.
The head coach has imposed sharper structure and clearer roles in possession, and January’s transfer work has reinforced that. Taty Castellanos now offers a focal point, Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville have greater freedom, and Mateus Fernandes has begun to dictate games. They produced 20 shots in their last outing, their highest total in a league match this season.
The issue is what happens once they are ahead. No team has dropped more points from winning positions than West Ham’s 20, a direct product of that strong‑start, weak‑finish pattern.
The clean sheet and lack of big chances conceded against an in‑form Bournemouth should help their confidence, but Liverpool present a different test. Arne Slot’s side are chasing a third straight win and a move into fifth, and they tend to grow into games, with a league‑high 13 goals in the 90th minute or later this season, including a 97th‑minute winner against West Ham’s relegation rivals Nottingham Forest.
West Ham have also lost 26 of their 29 Premier League away games against reigning champions. If the numbers hold, the first half should belong to Nuno’s team and the closing stages to Anfield.
Leeds United vs Manchester City
Since 2017-18, Manchester City have conceded two or more goals in only three of their 52 Premier League games against promoted sides, and two of those have come against Daniel Farke teams. Farke's Norwich City beat them 3-2 in September 2019, Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds beat them 2-1 in April 2021, and Farke’s current Leeds side pushed them all the way but lost 3-2 at the Etihad in November.
City arrive at Elland Road looking far less charitable. They have scored 11 goals in their last five league matches, 2.2 per game, since Pep Guardiola’s latest attacking shift. The new version of City trades some of their old, possession-heavy control for a more transitional model built on athleticism and moments.
They are more willing to accept end-to-end phases, defend a little deeper and attack quicker, generating more expected goals (xG) from fast breaks and counters. Direct runners stretch the pitch vertically, while Nico O'Reilly’s more central, box-to-box role links those chaotic transitions with the kind of structured possession Guardiola still values.
Leeds, though, are stronger than their league position suggests. They have only lost twice in their last 14 games, underpinned by a league-best 23.49 xGOT over that spell. The flip side is game management: they have dropped nine points from winning positions in that period, have not kept a clean sheet in their last six outings and have drawn a league-high eight games.
Elland Road under the lights should sharpen them. Leeds are unbeaten in their last 25 league or play-off matches at home kicking off after 5pm (W20 D5) since a 6-1 loss to Liverpool in April 2023, even if they have lost each of their last five Premier League meetings with City.
Leeds-born Erling Haaland scored twice on his last visit here in December 2022, and no visiting player has ever scored two or more in consecutive top-flight trips to this ground. The numbers point to goals.
Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham’s biggest question at Craven Cottage is whether a back three that keeps hurting them can cope with Raul Jimenez.
Spurs have used a three‑man defence four times this season, including Igor Tudor’s first league game in charge, the 4-1 home defeat by Arsenal. Before Tudor, Thomas Frank turned to a back three for the first time in the 4-1 loss at the Emirates, with the other two outings in that shape coming in 2-2 draws against Manchester City and Burnley.
Tudor is wedded to a rigid three-at-the-back system, but across Tottenham’s last 10 league matches using that shape, they have managed just one win (D3 L6) and none in the last six (D2 L4).
The wider picture is just as bleak. Tottenham are the only side in the division without a Premier League victory in 2026. They are winless in nine (D4, L5), and this is only the fourth time in their history they have gone through January and February without a league win. Over that period, they have also conceded more goals than anyone else, 18 since the turn of the year, the kind of form that drags teams towards relegation rather than out of it.
Fulham will fancy exploiting those nerves through Jimenez. He has scored the opening goal in 32 of the 61 league games in which he has found the net, including in four of Fulham’s last 11 games.
He scored a double at Sunderland, including the opening goal, and extended his perfect Premier League penalty record. It took the Mexico striker to eight league goals this season, joint-most at Fulham with Harry Wilson. They will be the main tests of whether Tudor’s back three can finally hold.
Arsenal vs Chelsea
Few teams look as at home in their own city as Arsenal: since the start of 2022-23 they have failed to score in only two of 44 London derbies, both against West Ham. Arsenal are also unbeaten in their last 10 meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, winning seven and drawing three, and have won their last three home league games against them.
They also went some way to muting the familiar questions about their nerve in a title race with that thumping derby win at Spurs, a game in which Viktor Gyokeres, the Premier League’s leading scorer in 2026, produced arguably his best domestic performance in an Arsenal shirt.
He still has a point to prove. His 10 league goals include just one against a side currently in the top half, Everton, ninth at the time, and he has registered zero shots on target against all of the present top eight (City, Villa, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Brentford and Bournemouth).
He will be desperate to correct that, but the burden does not rest solely on him. Against the current top eight, Arsenal have taken 10 of 24 available points, dropping 14; against the other 12 sides, they have taken 44 of 51, dropping only seven.
Chelsea arrive nursing a different kind of frustration, having dropped four points in their last two games. A red card and defensive lapses saw them squander a 2-0 lead over Leeds for an hour, then concede late to Burnley after leading for almost the entire match.
Only West Ham have dropped more points (20) from winning positions than Chelsea’s 19 this season. Arsenal will sense an opportunity to extend their lead at the top as the title race tightens around them.