Welcome to week 10 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where I find myself wrestling with how to deal with Liverpool’s dramatic slump.
After starting their league title defence with five straight wins, Arne Slot’s team have lost their last four. What was a five-point lead at the top of the Premier League table after five games has become a seven-point deficit to Arsenal.
The reasons for that nosedive have been explored and debated in detail. Here on The Athletic, you can read detailed analysis on the struggles of Mohammed Salah, Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, the problems at right-back, the various tactical issues opponents are exploiting and, in a broader sense, the challenges facing Slot after an expensive summer overhaul that seems to have brought more questions than answers.
But this column is simply about trying — and largely failing — to predict the future. In this case, it’s about trying to work out whether, having underestimated the depth of Liverpool’s malaise, we should chase those lost points by belatedly jumping on the Anfield crisis bandwagon or put our faith in the law of averages and tip them to bounce back at home to Aston Villa on Saturday night.
Each week, four of us — a guest subscriber, six-year-old Wilfred, the algorithm and me — are predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus for any correct “unique” prediction, so as well as nine points for his three correct scorelines last week, Wilf got a bonus point for being the only one to tip Bournemouth to beat Nottingham Forest 2-0. Clever boy.
But nobody predicted Brentford to inflict Liverpool’s fourth consecutive defeat. In fact, looking back, not one of us saw any of those four defeats coming — although the algorithm went for them to draw the last three while the rest of us were tipping them to win.
I sensed vulnerability in Slot’s team at the start of the season, predicting they would lose against Arsenal and Newcastle United because I felt such a major turnover of players would cause teething problems. But they won those first five games, albeit not entirely convincingly, so their slump caught us all by surprise.
It is timely that a Liverpool supporter, Hari, a 34-year-old from south London, is this week’s guest subscriber. He will be looking to build on a fine effort last week by Leeds United fan Andrew, whose eight points (combined with Wilf’s brilliant 10) shook up the table, taking the subscribers back up to second place and leaving me looking nervously over my shoulder after a torrid couple of weeks.
Anyway, over to you, Hari.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Liverpool vs Aston Villa, Saturday, 8pm UK/4pm ET
Hari says: "Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea has all the ingredients to be a really fun, chaotic contest, but given the pressure that will be on Slot this week and the fact he rested nearly his entire first team in midweek, it’s hard to look past Saturday night’s game between Liverpool and Villa at Anfield. Heart over head — I’m going with 2-1 to LFC."
Liverpool 2-1 Aston Villa
Oli says: "On the evening of September 20, Liverpool had 15 points from five games and Villa had two points from four games. Going into this weekend, they are level on points: a 13-point swing over five weeks. Looking back, I kept backing Villa throughout their slump on the simplistic basis that they were stronger than most of the teams they were facing. That’s pretty much where I am with Liverpool. Slot has serious issues to address — structural, tactical, physical and, not least of all, psychological — but I would at least expect a battling performance against Villa and possibly a very tight win.
Liverpool 2-1 Aston Villa
The rest of Oli’s predictions
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Oli says: As a spectacle, this could be the defining game of the Premier League season. Brentford and Palace are the two teams at the top of the long throw-in table (both for the number attempted and the number of shots arising from them) and only Burnley have a lower pass completion rate. It’s been working very well for both — Brentford have won four of their last five in all competitions — but I wonder if it might be less effective against each other than it was against Liverpool, for example. Palace to shade a war of attrition.
Crystal Palace 1-0 Brentford
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
United have won three in a row, but here’s something interesting. In their two games against Forest last season, they had 71 per cent and 68 per cent possession — the highest shares in their first 36 Premier League games under Ruben Amorim — and they lost both. Forest have changed their manager twice since then, but it’s safe to say Sean Dyche will be happy to follow the sit-deep-and-hit-them-on-the-break formula that worked for Nuno Espirito Santo last season. It will make an interesting test for United, who, as Amorim has said, still have room for improvement when it comes to controlling games.
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester United
Burnley vs Arsenal
Opta’s prediction model puts Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League at 66.9 per cent. I would be inclined to go even higher. It’s not that they are playing brilliantly, but more that their performances have demonstrated a far greater maturity, resilience and focus than anyone else looks capable of. I can see Arsenal extending their lead at the top between now and the November international break. Burnley away is a test, but one I would firmly expect the leaders to take in their stride.
Burnley 0-2 Arsenal
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United
Hallelujah. I’ve just realised I finally got a Brighton result last week, having predicted them to lose at Manchester United. But I still look at their next five games — Leeds (H), Crystal Palace (A), Brentford (H), Forest (A), Villa (H) — and think they could win or lose any of them. They’re uniquely unpredictable, so it is with great uncertainty that I predict them to beat a decent Leeds team.
Brighton 2-1 Leeds
Fulham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fulham have lost their last four, leaving them one place above the relegation zone, but they have a relatively gentle run of games between now and the end of the year — and they don’t come much gentler right now than Wolves at home. This one has a Raul Jimenez respectful non-celebration written all over it. Where that would leave Wolves, other than in big trouble, I don’t know.
Fulham 2-0 Wolves
Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea
Chelsea’s record against Tottenham is remarkable. Between 1989 and 2006, they were unbeaten in 32 league matches against their London rivals. Even in more recent years, they've won 13 of their last 17 clashes in all competitions, scoring four on each of their past two visits. They won’t score four on Saturday evening, but they might have the tools to stretch a Spurs defence that has looked decent. I won’t be playing the high-scoring-draw card very often this season, but this could be one.
Tottenham 2-2 Chelsea
West Ham United vs Newcastle United
Even if I close my eyes and try to get my imagination working, I can’t work out what a West Ham home win looks like at the moment. Their last one came in February against a doomed Leicester City. Since then, it’s no wins, three draws and six defeats in the last nine at London Stadium. How is that one-paced midfield going to cope with the formidable Newcastle trio of Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton? I don’t think it will. Away win, with empty seats and a lot of agitation at the final whistle.
West Ham 0-2 Newcastle
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
There are times when Pep Guardiola seems to lay it on a little too thick when praising opposition coaches, but his respect for the “incredible” Andoni Iraola is entirely genuine. City have won 17 of their 18 meetings with Bournemouth in all competitions, but that one defeat, at the Vitality Stadium this time last year, made a real impression on Guardiola. I fancy City, purely for the Erling Haaland factor, but it looks like an intriguing match-up.
Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth
Sunderland vs Everton
David Moyes has not been back on the touchline at the Stadium of Light since his unhappy spell in charge of Sunderland ended in relegation in 2017. He might struggle to recognise the place on Monday night, given how upbeat it will feel. Sunderland's 17 points from their first nine games is a remarkable feat for a promoted team. How long can they keep defying gravity? A little longer, I fancy.
Sunderland 1-0 Everton