Welcome to The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, back after the international break and still struggling to make sense of a strange campaign.
I wrote at length yesterday about some of the trends we are seeing so far in this season’s Premier League: more direct play, more reliance on set pieces, a lot more long throw-ins. Set-piece goals are up, but ball-in-play time is down significantly, as is the number of goals scored from open play.
Is it making for more entertaining football? On the basis of what we have seen so far this season, I would say definitely not. Has it made for more unpredictability? At times, perhaps, but not significantly so.
After seven games, the three pre-season title favourites (Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City) are first, second and fifth. There have been a few surprise results, but it seems notable that six of the 10 defeats suffered by the ‘Big Six’ clubs to date have come against fellow ‘Big Six’ opposition — and yes, I know people hate that term, but it reflects wealth, spending power and status rather than relatively minor fluctuations in on-pitch performance.
There was a refreshing weekend in late September when Brentford, Brighton and Crystal Palace beat Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool respectively. It was perhaps in response to those unexpected results that I predicted wins for Sunderland and Leeds United over Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur respectively in week seven. But no, I was getting carried away; something more like normal service was resumed.
For the most part, the unpredictability has come from Bournemouth and Palace continuing to perform beyond expectations and two of last season’s top seven (Nottingham Forest and, until the last few weeks, Aston Villa) performing some way below.
All of which leaves us with a few things to chew on in our predictions challenge, where four of us — a guest subscriber, the algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred, and I — are predicting the Premier League results each week.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so subscriber Ben got a whopping four-pointer for Wolves 1-1 Brighton, whereas I had to content myself with three points for Arsenal 2-0 West Ham United because the algorithm also got it spot-on.
Going into the closing stages of the Sunday 2pm kick-offs in week seven, young Wilf was on course for no fewer than three spot-ons. But then came late goals for Newcastle, Burnley and Everton, and a 10-point haul from those four Sunday 2pm fixtures, including a bonus point, was thus reduced to two. It’s a cruel game.
Ben, an Aston Villa fan from Australia, was the top scorer in week seven, registering eight points to put the subscribers back in striking distance.
The algorithm is still in first place, but that two-point lead looks fragile.
This week’s guest subscriber is Steve, a 47-year-old West Ham fan from London. Over to you, Steve.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
West Ham vs Brentford, Monday, 8pm UK/3pm ET
Steve says: "Unsurprisingly, I’ll opt for the Monday night east/west London showdown. Expect empty seats due to the planned boycott against the owners, which will have zero impact on the atmosphere in the temporary athletics stadium (one of the various issues being highlighted by my comrades). There's an irony in terms of the timing of the boycott and Monday's opposition (perhaps only Brighton would have been more acute).
"Brentford are everything West Ham are not: data-led, properly structured, planning for the future, clear strategy. But Nuno Espirito Santo is already more popular than Graham Potter merely by making massively obvious team calls: enabling a young and dynamic midfield to form around Mateus Fernandes, starting Soungoutou Magassa, Freddie Potts as first change… And there have been noticeable, albeit small, improvements, so I'm hoping for a narrow win."
West Ham 2-1 Brentford
Oli says: Nuno hardly had time to draw breath after replacing Potter as West Ham coach: barely 48 hours to prepare for his opening game, away to Everton, and then an unenviable trip to Arsenal five days after that. He will be grateful for time to reflect before his first home game in charge and perhaps, having had so many of his players away on international duty, he will also appreciate a couple of extra days to prepare for a televised Monday night fixture — not least to try to find a way to neutralise Brentford’s threat from dead-ball situations.
West Ham 2-1 Brentford
The rest of Oli's predictions
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Oli says: Imagine how different things would be at Nottingham Forest if they had beaten Chelsea on the final day of last season, came fourth and qualified for the Champions League. They played well in that game, but lost, finished seventh and ended up in a ludicrous situation where they convinced themselves that the answer was sacking Nuno and replacing him with Ange Postecoglou, a coach with such a radically different playing style. For that, you can blame the owner, Evangelos Marinakis, and his head of global football, Edu. But we all know the fall guy will be Postecoglou. And probably sooner rather than later.
Nottingham Forest 1-2 Chelsea
Brighton vs Newcastle
I still haven’t got a single Brighton result right. It looked like I’d nailed it in week seven by going against my instinct and tipping them to lose at bottom-of-the-table Wolves, but then they rallied and scored an 86th-minute equaliser. I love watching them, but they’re infuriating. Do I take the same approach here (i.e., I think they’ll lose, therefore I predict they’ll win)? No, I will actually go with my gut feeling here.
Brighton 1-1 Newcastle
Burnley vs Leeds
Leeds, like Sunderland, have adapted well to the demands of the Premier League. Burnley have found it harder. But their four defeats have come against Tottenham, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City — and in two of those cases, the winning goal came in stoppage time. Their performances at Turf Moor suggest they will be far more competitive than two seasons ago. Burnley had the better of their two clashes with Leeds in the Championship last season: a 1-0 win at Elland Road and a 0-0 draw at Turf Moor — and I can see them edging this one.
Burnley 1-0 Leeds
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
Oliver Glasner won just one of his first six Premier League games in charge of Crystal Palace. Andoni Iraola won none of his first nine at Bournemouth. What they have achieved since then will give every beleaguered coach the belief that they can recover from a horrible start if only they are granted the time to do so. But the reality is that what Glasner and Iraola have achieved is exceptional in more ways than one. Both teams surprised expectations last season and, having lost key players in the summer, have been even more impressive this term. This one could go either way.
Crystal Palace 2-1 Bournemouth
Manchester City vs Everton
The last time Everton won at Manchester City was in December 2010, when David Moyes was in his first spell in charge of the Merseyside club and Seamus Coleman was a 22-year-old playing on the right wing. They have had some uplifting results since Moyes returned to the club last January, but going to the Etihad Stadium and winning seems like a tall order for this team. They will miss Jack Grealish, who has impressed on loan but is ineligible to face his parent club, and they will surely — like everyone else — struggle to contain Erling Haaland.
Manchester City 3-0 Everton
Sunderland vs Wolves
With less than a quarter of the season gone, Sunderland already have 11 points on the board, which is highly impressive given that the biggest total achieved by a newly promoted team in the last two seasons was Luton Town’s 25. They are already nine points clear of Wolves, who can ill afford to fall further adrift at the bottom of the table. Right now, Sunderland look far more likely to stay up, but I would expect a slight levelling-up as the season progresses. I think a draw for this one… or possibly a tight game that is won in stoppage time.
Sunderland 1-1 Wolves
Fulham vs Arsenal
Arsenal’s players and supporters will not look back fondly on their last two visits to Fulham, a damaging 2-1 defeat on New Year’s Eve 2023 and a frustrating 1-1 draw last December, but this is an opportunity to demonstrate that they are stronger. The weekend after an international break often throws up uncertainties, but Mikel Arteta’s team are reliably competitive and the loss of their captain, Martin Odegaard, to injury shouldn’t change that. Fulham will give it a go, but Arsenal will be too strong. Set piece again, ole ole.
Fulham 1-2 Arsenal
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Early days in the season and I’m not yet sure what to make of these two. Tottenham are third, only one defeat in seven games, but they don’t really seem to have clicked performance-wise under Thomas Frank and, looking at their fixture list over the next six weeks or so, it is fair to say they are about to be asked more serious questions. Villa seem to have found their feet after a slow start, but it has still looked and felt a little laboured. Both need to go up a gear in the coming weeks.
Tottenham 1-1 Aston Villa
Liverpool vs Manchester United
Manchester United’s last nine results at Anfield, starting from October 2016: 0-0, 0-0, 1-3, 0-2, 0-0, 0-4, 0-7, 0-0, 2-2. Those games have fallen into two categories: those in which they have been beaten comprehensively (and in some cases annihilated) and those in which they have fought hard to get a point. A spirited 2-2 draw last January was one of their best performances so far under Ruben Amorim, a game that lent some credence to the notion that Arne Slot’s team can be frustrated by playing against a back three/five system like United’s. All of this, plus Liverpool’s early-season teething problems, points to a much tighter game than some of those listed above, but I would lean towards a home win, with at least one of Slot’s expensive new signings coming good.
Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United