Welcome to week 29 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where it’s starting to look like a straight fight between the subscribers and young Wilfred.
Wilfred continues to predict scores with a wisdom far beyond his six years — and far, far beyond my 50 — while one subscriber after another keeps coming up trumps.
Last week was the turn of Adam, a Newcastle United fan from Kildare, Ireland. Adam got two scorelines right and another three results right to maintain the subscribers’ sudden title charge.
But Wilfred got two of Sunday’s games spot-on (Fulham 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United 2-1 Crystal Palace) to keep his four-point lead intact.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — Wilfred, a guest subscriber, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success.
We are awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so Adam picked up an extra point for the subscribers because he was the only one to predict Brighton & Hove Albion’s win over Nottingham Forest.
Having led the table for much of the campaign, I find myself in freefall. I got six correct results at the weekend, but I’ve barely picked a correct scoreline in weeks.
To sum it up, I picked four of Saturday’s five games to end up 2-1 — and none of them did. I picked none of Sunday’s four games to end up 2-1 — and all of them did.
Even the algorithm got two of Sunday’s 2-1s spot-on and suddenly I’m looking over my shoulder and wondering whether I’m in danger of finishing last. That would not be a good look.
Still, another week brings another opportunity for redemption (or further humiliation)… and another guest subscriber. This week, we have Derian, a 27-year-old Chelsea fan from New York City. Take it away, Derian.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace, Thursday, 8pm UK/3pm ET
Derian says: More for the off-field narrative than the promise of on-pitch entertainment, this London derby tops the midweek billing. Can Tottenham Hotspur stave off relegation? Will Oliver Glasner's uneasy truce with Crystal Palace fans hold? Expect hard running, a red card, some wild shots — and a 1-0 win for Spurs.
Tottenham 1-0 Crystal Palace
Oli says: If Wednesday’s results go anything like I’ve predicted (spoiler: they won’t), then Tottenham will still be two places and four points above the relegation zone when they kick off on Thursday evening. If Nottingham or West Ham have picked up a win, it really will be panic stations. Spurs were abject in defeat at Fulham on Sunday, the type of performance that demands a response. This fixture offers an opportunity for that — against a Crystal Palace team who are drifting — but even so, my prediction of a home win feels a little wild.
Tottenham 2-1 Crystal Palace
Oli’s other predictions
Everton vs Burnley
Every time Everton drop points, there’s a flurry of anti-David Moyes sentiment on social media. But they’re eighth in the table, higher than they have finished in any of the previous six seasons (and higher than just about anyone predicted last summer), so he’s clearly getting a lot right. What he and Everton really need is to start winning at their new stadium, where they have taken just two points from their past six games. This is a good opportunity against a Burnley side whose laudable spirit might be dampened by the agonising nature of their 4-3 defeat by Brentford.
Everton 2-0 Burnley
Bournemouth vs Brentford
Are Bournemouth the new Brighton? And are Brentford the new Bournemouth? Both teams have surpassed every expectation again this season despite selling key players (and in Brentford’s case, losing an influential coach, Thomas Frank). Brentford are only two points behind sixth-placed Chelsea, which seems absurd. It’s hard to predict which way this game will fall, but it should be lively.
Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford
Leeds United vs Sunderland
Manchester City’s 1-0 win on Saturday was Leeds’ first defeat in an evening kick-off at Elland Road in 25 league/play-off games. They were unfortunate against City, too. Games under the floodlights seem to energise Leeds’ supporters and players, and they will know that, despite their huge improvement over the past three months, they need more points on the board. Sunderland look stronger for Granit Xhaka’s return, but they should be braced for a tough evening.
Leeds 2-1 Sunderland
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool
Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ calculates that, after an upturn under Rob Edwards, underlined by their impressive victory over Aston Villa on Friday, Wolves have a chance of avoiding relegation. The chance in question is a mere 0.02 per cent, but still… ‘So you’re telling me there’s a chance?’ This is a strange situation because they are at home to Liverpool in the Premier League on Tuesday and then in the FA Cup on Friday. Is there a case for Edwards resting key players on Tuesday and going full-strength in the FA Cup? There might be, actually.
Wolves 0-2 Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal
Winning while playing poorly is said to be the hallmark of champions, but that 2-1 victory over Chelsea on Sunday left me questioning (slightly) my long-held belief that Arsenal will win the Premier League. It was a poor performance and, again, I felt the main concern was not one of ‘bottle’, as the popular narrative suggests, but of a low-risk approach that turns almost every game into a scrap. So often, there is a lack of freedom and variety in their play. Tension has come to engulf every Arsenal match, particularly at the Emirates Stadium, so a trip to the Amex — not the most intense of arenas — might feel like a welcome change of scenery. But Brighton are back on form after back-to-back wins, so it threatens to be another slog.
Brighton 1-2 Arsenal
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest
A report last week revealed that Manchester City’s players have covered more distance per game than any other team in the Premier League this season. Four of their players (Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Nico Gonzalez and Tijjani Reijnders) were in the top 10 for distance covered per 90 minutes. Watching them at Leeds on Saturday night, it was their work rate — more than their more recognised qualities — that stuck out. This is far from the most scintillating of Pep Guardiola’s teams, but their attitude is spot-on. Forest were 19th on that list, one place above Chelsea. Vitor Pereira's side look tired from their Europa League exertions and could be given the runaround on Wednesday.
Manchester City 3-0 Nottingham Forest
Fulham vs West Ham United
West Ham have looked much better over the past six weeks, but it is worrying that they a) have failed to capitalise on winning positions and b) conceded five goals on Saturday to a Liverpool side who didn’t really do anything special. They really need to start making games like this count because they don’t pick up enough points at home. The difficulty is that Fulham have won back-to-back games and look like they’re enjoying themselves again. West Ham seem to have forgotten what enjoyment is.
Fulham 2-1 West Ham
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Aston Villa’s season: 0.4 points per game for the first five, 2.76 points per game for the next 13, 1.2 points per game for the last 10. For what looks, on paper, to be an eminently sensible team, who have averaged a perfectly reasonable 1.82 points per game over that period, that is wild. Logically, top-five form is somewhere between 1.7 and 1.9 points per game. If they perform anywhere near that level between now and the end of the campaign, they should make next season’s Champions League, whereas Chelsea, six points adrift of Villa, need to find a level of consistency that has looked beyond them. Both of them have a tough run of games coming up. Chelsea’s greater need might lead them to risk more here in the hope of making up lost ground.
Aston Villa 1-2 Chelsea
Newcastle United vs Manchester United
It’s five defeats in six Premier League matches for Newcastle and now comes a succession of big tests: Manchester United, Chelsea and local rivals Sunderland in the Premier League, punctuated by an FA Cup fifth-round tie with Manchester City and home and away clashes with Barcelona in the Champions League. Playing two games a week, due to their cup commitments, has really hit them hard, whereas Manchester United, particularly since Michael Carrick took over from Ruben Amorim, have benefited from a lighter schedule. After three consecutive league defeats at St James’ Park, Newcastle need a response. I suspect they’ll come out swinging.
Newcastle 2-2 Manchester United