Welcome to week 17 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where it feels we can safely — and gleefully — declare that the algorithm is in crisis.
It initially looked no more than a blip when the data-based model, having set the pace for much of the campaign, faltered in week 14.
But things have gone from bad to worse.
Since week 13, the algorithm has picked up only 10 points, with just one correct scoreline and another seven correct results from the past 30 matches.
The algorithm’s methodology remains a closely guarded secret, but its struggles should be a cause for celebration for sentient humans everywhere.
In fairness, it’s not as if the algorithm has totally malfunctioned. Looking back, it has predicted 13 draws over the past three gameweeks — none of them wild or outrageous predictions — but there have only been eight draws across that period. Maybe it just needs to get off the fence from time to time.
Still, in an era when Time magazine has just nominated “the architects of AI” for its person/people of the year award, how gratifying it is to see that a data-based algorithm is struggling to match a washed-up 50-year-old sports hack and a six-year-old boy when it comes to predicting football results.
Each week, four of us — a guest subscriber, the algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and I — are predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so whereas I got a single point for each of those 10 correct results, Wilfred got a bonus point for being the only one to get Brentford 1-1 Leeds spot on.
I was pretty pleased with myself for getting the first nine results of last weekend correct, only for Bournemouth (with a little help from Manchester United’s defence) to deny me a clean sweep with that 4-4 draw at Old Trafford on Monday night.
But because I didn’t get a correct scoreline, Wilfred picked up more points to reduce my lead at the top of the table to just four. After a slow start, the boy wonder is now looking relentless — Manchester City to my increasingly nervous Arsenal.
I’m afraid to say the readers are still propping up the table. Last week’s guest subscriber, Matthew, picked up a healthy five points on your behalf, but was left to regret letting his heart rule his head by predicting his beloved Brighton to get a draw at Anfield. (To be fair, it was an entirely reasonable prediction based on Liverpool’s form over the past few months.)
This week’s guest subscriber is Chris, a 51-year-old Bournemouth supporter from Kentucky — I wouldn’t mind betting he is the only 51-year-old Bournemouth supporter in Kentucky.
Chris says he is desperate to get the subscribers “out of the basement”. That is something we can all get behind, particularly if it means dragging the algorithm further into the mire. Over to you, Chris.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Bournemouth vs Burnley, Saturday, 3pm UK/10am ET
Chris says: "Bournemouth have taken three points over the last seven (0-3-4), so this home fixture against a Burnley squad who concede almost three goals per game away (23 in 8) is enormous. If Andoni Iraola's men continue their sudden clinical finishing, they'll make the Scott Parker Derby Part II miserable for Parker."
Bournemouth 3-1 Burnley
Oli says: "Watching the way they attacked Manchester United to the very end in that pulsating 4-4 draw on Monday, it seemed unfathomable that Bournemouth have now gone seven games without a win in the Premier League. But it’s that kind of league this season. Winning games is hard. But some games look easier than others and a home match against Burnley, who have lost three players on AFCON duty, looks like the perfect opportunity for Iraola’s team to get going again."
Bournemouth 2-0 Burnley
The rest of Oli's predictions
Newcastle vs Chelsea
In my mind, St James’ Park is one of those grounds where visiting teams are happy to kick off on Saturday lunchtime rather than under the floodlights, so that’s a positive for Chelsea. But they’ve lost on their last four visits to Tyneside, which points to a certain fragility that has been underlined again in recent weeks. Newcastle will be reeling after their derby defeat by Sunderland last weekend. It’s hard to know whether that will make them vulnerable or just more fired up, but I’m predicting a tough afternoon for Chelsea.
Newcastle 2-1 Chelsea
Wolves vs Brentford
In the Premier League era, no team has gone more than 17 games without a win from the start of the season. That miserable record was set by Sheffield United in 2021-22, but Wolves will equal it if they fail to win on Saturday. There was some encouragement in the way they frustrated Arsenal for long spells last weekend, and Brentford at home is not the toughest assignment, but I’ve already overestimated Wolves by predicting them to win on three occasions, so I just can’t bring myself to go for a home win.
Wolves 1-1 Brentford
Manchester City vs West Ham
At some point very soon, I’m going to go back and tot up the results I’ve predicted for each team and see how that corresponds to reality. I expect I’ve overestimated Manchester City, making assumptions based on the likelihood of Erling Haaland scoring at least once, but it feels safer to do so now that Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki are contributing so well. And if I can stray into the world of Fantasy Premier League for just a second, I’m playing my triple captain chip this weekend with Haaland. Cue own goal, missed penalty, and red card.
Manchester City 3-0 West Ham
Brighton vs Sunderland
The jubilant scenes at the Stadium of Light last Sunday, after Sunderland beat Newcastle, were one of the real highlights of this Premier League campaign. It felt like the culmination of everything their efforts this season — and last — have been building towards. But life goes on and Brighton away strikes me as a bit of a down-to-earth-with-a-bump fixture, especially when Sunderland have six players away on AFCON duty.
Brighton 2-0 Sunderland
Tottenham vs Liverpool
Last week’s comments section included the suggestion from one reader, Nat, that I don’t appear to back Tottenham very often. Partly to ease my conscience, this led me to go back and check my workings. Nat’s right, I haven’t backed them to win since week six! But before that, I backed them to win four out of six. What this points to is a) some very awkward fixtures, b) a fairly severe injury crisis, and, most significantly, c) growing doubts (mine, yours, everyone else’s) in their direction under Thomas Frank, which is certainly troubling in the short term. I should probably go with a Spurs win on Saturday to try to reassure Nat and others that there is nothing sinister in my motives, but that would be overcompensating, particularly as Liverpool are in a better place than three or four weeks ago.
Tottenham 1-3 Liverpool
Leeds vs Crystal Palace
Sometimes I just want to write about the first player who comes to mind when I see two clubs mentioned. For Leeds and Palace, it’s Tomas Brolin, followed closely by Vince Hilaire and John Pemberton, which probably tells you that my head is still stuck in the last century. (This applies to music, films and particularly my wardrobe.) It’s just over 30 years since Swedish forward Brolin, one of European football’s most exciting young stars in the early 1990s, joined Leeds in what was then a huge £4.5million transfer. He struggled, bless him, having issues with his weight and his fitness. At Palace, it was even worse. A really good player, but not in the Premier League. Anyway, I digress.
Leeds 1-1 Crystal Palace
Everton vs Arsenal
I caught up with an Everton-supporting friend last week and we had a laugh recalling one of my favourite football stories. One of the most memorable Everton occasions since the turn of the century was a match in October 2002, when a 16-year-old Wayne Rooney scored a late winner to inflict Arsenal’s first defeat in 10 months, and my mate missed it because he had somehow convinced himself it had been moved from 3pm to Saturday evening for live TV coverage. He got to the car park around 3.30pm, sat in his car reading the paper for an hour or so, then turned on the radio to get the team news and was stunned to hear live commentary of a game that was now entering its closing stages. Panicked, he ran half a mile to Goodison Park, missed Rooney’s goal by about 60 seconds, and got there just in time to hear the final whistle. He will be relieved to know Saturday’s is an 8pm kick-off. Arsenal might be off the top of the table by then. Like in 2002, it could be a real test for them.
Everton 1-1 Arsenal
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Sir Alex Ferguson used to love taking Manchester United to Villa Park — and little wonder. They had an outstanding record there, not least for FA Cup semi-finals. And while just about every other aspect of United’s aura has faded over the years since Ferguson’s retirement, a proud record at Villa Park has survived; a 3-1 defeat in November 2022, in Unai Emery’s first match in charge of Villa, was their only Premier League defeat there since the famous “you’ll win nothing with kids” game in August 1995. But on form, you have to fancy Villa.
Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest
Every time a managerial vacancy arises at Nottingham Forest, which has occurred three times in the past two years and twice this season alone, Marco Silva’s name comes up. The Fulham coach retains the admiration of Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis, having worked for him at Olympiacos, but it is hard to imagine he or anyone else would have fared much better at Forest than Nuno Espirito Santo did. Sean Dyche has started very encouragingly, too. Silva is about to enter the final six months of his contract at Fulham, but, whatever alternatives might crop up elsewhere, Dyche is determined that Forest will not be among them.
Fulham 1-2 Nottingham Forest