With just five matches left to play, the Premier League relegation battle is heading towards its climax. Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United, Nottingham Forest and Leeds United are the four sides battling it out for survival. While the last couple of seasons’ run-ins offered little drama at the bottom of the table, every match will be a ‘cup final’ for those involved this year.
Here is a prediction of how those relegation battle matches will unfold.
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Who Survives the Premier League Relegation Battle?
AFC Bournemouth (a) – L 2-0
Burnley (h) – W 3-1
Tottenham (a) – L 2-1
Brighton & Hove Albion (h) – D 0-0
West Ham (a) – L 3-2
Leeds have enjoyed a strong recent run of form, which has created a degree of comfort for Daniel Farke’s side. Currently eight points clear of Tottenham in 18th, the biggest obstacle may now be complacency – particularly with an FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea to juggle. In-form Bournemouth will likely have too much for them, but a win over struggling Burnley will help stave off the threat. A point against Brighton’s organised defence should be enough for safety, even if Leeds fall to defeat against Spurs and West Ham.
Projected Points – 43
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Sunderland (a) – D 2-2
Chelsea (a) – W 1-0
Newcastle United (h) – L 2-1
Manchester United (a) – L 1-0
Bournemouth (h) – D 2-2
Like Leeds, Nottingham Forest are balancing this relegation battle with another competition after reaching the semi-final of the Europa League. Vitor Pereira’s side have momentum though, and an entertaining draw at the Stadium of Light, followed by a win over misfiring Chelsea would underline that. Close defeats against Newcastle and Man United sandwiched by a European semi-final and potential final would leave Forest’s fate to be decided on the final day. A draw against Bournemouth in Andoni Iraola’s farewell would keep the standings tight.
Projected Points – 41
Everton (h) – D 1-1
Brentford (a) – D 0-0
Arsenal (h) – L 2-1
Newcastle (a) – W 2-1
Leeds (h) – W 3-2
West Ham have found form under Nuno Espirito Santo, but their upcoming fixtures offer few guarantees of points. Solid displays should yield points against defensively sure Everton and Brentford, before title-chasing Arsenal defeat the Hammers at the London Stadium. Those results would set up a sprint finish in the final two games, with West Ham finding victories over inconsistent Newcastle and Leeds.
Projected Points – 41
Wolverhampton Wanderers (a) – W 2-0
Aston Villa (a) – D 2-2
Leeds (h) – W 2-1
Chelsea (a) – L 2-1
Everton (h) – W 3-2
Roberto De Zerbi joined a club that had not won a match since December. However, the Italian’s first two matches offered promise that the run could end against Wolves. A point from Aston Villa, drained from a European match days before, would restore genuine belief. Victory against Leeds would swing momentum before a blow at Stamford Bridge. But with improved performances under De Zerbi, a final day win over Everton may just save the side.
Projected Points – 41
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Premier League Relegation Battle – Predicted Final Table
The margins are razor-thin and the Premier League relegation battle may come down to the wire and ultimately goal difference. With just two points projected to separate all four sides, Leeds remain in relative safety and Forest survive despite a tricky run of fixtures that threatens their top-flight status. Three wins would boost Spurs’ goal difference and keep them afloat. Meanwhile, West Ham fall victim to a significantly worse goal difference than their rivals, much of which was accrued in the early stages of the season.
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