In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Last weekend we landed two of our three selections with winners at 6/4 and 7/2. We have a 14/1 bet for today which looks attractive given the game and missing players.
Our shots on target betting picks
Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur welcome Liverpool to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday evening.
The game environment supports long range shooting. Liverpool lead the league for shots outside the box with 97 attempts. That reflects sustained pressure, recycled possession, and frequent shooting lanes opening at the edge of the area. Tottenham contribute to that profile. They concede 67 shots outside the box and 178 shots overall, allowing opponents time and space when defensive shape stretches.
Dominik Szoboszlai fits this setup. He has taken 23 shots outside the box this season, the highest figure in the league. Those 23 account for almost three quarters of his total 31 shots. His role places him consistently in central and right half spaces where second balls drop and cut backs roll to the edge of the area. When Liverpool pin teams deep, Szoboszlai is the first receiver outside the box.
Liverpool’s attacking structure also matters. They generate 236 total shots with 139 coming inside the box. That inside threat forces low blocks and compact defending, which pushes clearance zones outward rather than relieving pressure. That pattern feeds edge of the box attempts rather than transitions.
Tottenham games carry pace and shot volume. Liverpool already profile as the strongest outside the box shooting side on the slate. Szoboszlai’s individual volume, combined with team level intent and opponent concessions, supports a shot on target outside the box angle.
Best Bet: Dominik Szoboszlai over shots on target from outside the box at 11/10 with Betfair
Aston Villa vs Man Utd
The game profile supports attempts from range. Manchester United have recorded the second highest number of shots outside the box this season with 91. That reflects sustained pressure, recycled possession, and frequent second phase attacks rather than direct transition play. Villa contribute to the setup. They have conceded 171 shots overall, with regular concessions from the edge of the area once defensive lines drop.
Matheus Cunha fits this angle well. He has taken 18 shots outside the box in 13 appearances, placing him among the league leaders despite fewer minutes than many peers. His shot map shows a clear preference for receiving between the lines and shooting early when space opens outside the penalty area. He does not rely on penalty box touches to generate attempts.
Team context strengthens the case. With Bryan Mbeumo now away at AFCON, more of the attacking threat flows through Cunha. That shift increases his responsibility in possession and his freedom to shoot rather than defer. United already lean heavily on central ball carriers to progress play, and Cunha becomes the primary release point when attacks slow around the box.
Villa Park fixtures often stretch as pressure builds. United volume, Villa resistance, and repeated clearances create edge of box opportunities. Cunha’s individual outside box volume, combined
Best Bet: Matheus Cunha over 0.5 shots on target from outside the box at 6/4 with Betfair
Brighton vs Sunderland
Dan Ballard profiles strongly for a headed goal against Brighton.
Ballard has recorded 11 headed shots across 14 appearances. That volume places him among the top aerial threats from centre back. His role is fixed. He attacks the near post and stays high on second phases. Sunderland’s attacking set piece profile supports this. Over 16 games they generate 57 set piece shots and 5.01 xG. Set pieces account for 37.60% of their total xG. Delivery is frequent and repeatable.
The matchup improves the outlook. Brighton face consistent aerial pressure from set plays. They have conceded 58 set piece shots and 4.86 xG. More importantly, Brighton are without their organiser. Captain Lewis Dunk is suspended. His absence weakens first contact, line control, and recovery positioning. Brighton lose their strongest aerial defender and primary marker on attacking centre backs.
Sunderland rely on Ballard in these moments. He attacks with intent rather than blocking space. Eleven of his 14 shots have come via headers. That ratio matters. He is not sharing volume with multiple centre backs. He is the clear primary target.
Game state also supports pressure. Brighton allow territory and defend deep phases when pressed. That increases corner volume and recycled deliveries. Ballard stays involved across those sequences.
With Sunderland’s set piece dependence, Brighton’s defensive profile, and Dunk absent, Ballard’s path to a headed goal is direct. The price reflects a defender. The opportunity reflects a striker in these situations.
Best Bet: Dan Ballard over 0.5 shots on target at 16/5 with Coral
Best Bet: Dan Ballard to score a header at 14/1 with Betfred
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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