Our resident FPL expert looks at whether signing Spurs’ Mohammed Kudus makes sense after Gameweek 1.
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The Fantasy Premier League is only one gameweek old, but knees are already jerking around the world, with millions of transfers taking as players panic after a single poor performance – or desperately try to snap up player who impressed on the opening weekend.
One such player is Tottenham Hotspur’s Mohammed Kudus. The Ghanaian registered two assists in a 3-0 win over Burnley and picked up 10 points. That’s a great return for any FPL midfielder, especially one who only cost £6.5m.
As such, over a quarter of a million players have already transferred him in, and price change predictors suggest that he is likely to rise before the Gameweek 2 deadline on Friday evening. So should you get him in your team before his price starts to go up?
Will Mohammed Kudus keep producing points in the FPL?
Kudus had a solid first season in the FPL, scoring 137 points for West Ham United, but was a let down in 2024/25, registering just nine combined goals and assists for a tame return of 106 points. With mid-price midfielders, players are hoping to sign players who will pace for around 150 points or more, so historically Kudus has never been better than average.
Still, he is now in a different situation and playing for what may well prove to be a better team given Spurs’ start, and 10 points is a great start towards that 150-point mark. But will that form be sustainable?
Based on the stats behind his two seasons in the Premier League so far, he would need to improve quite considerably to get as many points as you’d want over the course of a long season. He overperformed both expected goals and assists in his first season by a long way, regressing rapidly to the mean the following year – and he hasn’t yet proven that he can produce enough xG as creator or scorer to do much better than those 137 points a couple of years ago.
Kudus is averaging 6.5 goals per season from 6.0xG, and would need to be making more chances for himself to score enough goals to really get towards the upper echelons of points scoring, albeit not by an enormous amount. He’s also only averaging 3.3 expected assists per season – he’s overperforming that by enough to be a testament to the quality of his final ball, but even at 50% above the conversion rate of the average player (his approximate mark so far), that’s not enough to really go nuclear in the FPL.
So he would have to take a big step forward in terms of his output at Spurs to be worth the extra money, especially compared to last season, and doing that would likely require not just an improvement at the age of 25 but a significant improvement from Spurs as a team to ensure he spends enough time in dangerous positions to convert opportunities into goal contributions and thus FPL points.
There is little statistical evidence to suggest that Kudus is all that likely to break through the 150-point barrier, less still by enough to merit a knee-jerk week two transfer. He could still hit veins of form which justify signing him, of course, but he isn’t likely to be a must-have player all season long. So is he likely to hit enough early form that he’s worth an immediate transfer?
Why signing Kudus as a short-term FPL solution makes little sense
Signing Kudus as a set-and-forget player can’t really be backed up by the stats, and I’d want to see more evidence of the necessary improvements in production before I snapped him up – but does he make sense as a signing who will get strong short-term results?
Riding waves of high-end form is a great way to score more FPL points, and while Kudus may not be a consistent performer he’s certainly capable of big gameweeks, as he aptly demonstrated against Burnley. One game does not necessarily equate to a strong run of games, but it’s a start.
Spurs will be facing much tougher opponents than Burnley in the coming weeks, of course, starting with a trip to the Etihad to face a Manchester City side who looked pretty scary in dismantling Wolves on Saturday. Spurs do have a surprisingly decent record against City, but that doesn’t make them favourites or their players likely to go big.
Still, things to do get rather gentler after that – a run of fixtures against Bournemouth, a worryingly poor West Ham side, then Brighton, Wolves and Leeds in a row. That’s not the easiest run of fixtures in the world, but it’s eminently targetable.
My opinion is that I’d wait one more week. If Kudus and, perhaps more importantly, Spurs as a whole look good against City, then signing the Ghanaian makes plenty of sense (while Eberechi Eze could quickly become a consideration one his transfer is confirmed as well) but the risk of a £0.1m price rise isn’t enough for me to jump on a hype train on an essentially unproven FPL asset into the teeth of a very tough fixture.
At £6.5m, he’s also at an awkward price point for a single free transfer. There just aren’t many players that you could have sensibly signed at that price or higher who were so bad in Gameweek 1 that it’s worth swapping them out. It wouldn’t trade, say, Kaoru Mitoma for Kudus just based on one week’s results, and I certainly don’t see Kudus as being worth taking a -4 hit to sign. Few transfers are worth that in the short term.
I’d seriously consider this move if I had a £6.5m-7.0m midfielder whose price was set to drop and who looked like a genuinely poor pick-up in the first place – a list of players which includes Justin Kluivert (injured) and Jacob Murphy (now a back-up) but few others. If you made a howler like that from Gameweek 1, signing Kudus is a very sensible way to correct the error. Otherwise, I’d wait another week and gamble on his price staying the same, which remains a possibility, and hope to make a more efficient two-player transfer which maximised my points in the long run.
Ultimately, Kudus will probably be no more than decent across the course of the season unless the move to Spurs really unlocks his potential – and while he could be a great pick-up in patches, that doesn’t mean that it’s worth panic-buying him right now. If in doubt, it’s all best to roll transfers over and have extra flexibility down the line, and there’s plenty of reasonable doubt right now.