There are three truisms in the Champions League knockouts: 1) Manchester City will always draw Real Madrid whenever possible, 2) Arsenal will always end up with the easiest path to the finals, and 3) Tottenham Hotspur will always draw the more difficult from two scenarios. That’s pretty much what happened in this morning’s Champions League Round of 16 draw, which set not only the remaining teams’ immediate opponents, but also the bracket for the rest of the tournament.
Tottenham Hotspur knew they would face either Atletico Madrid or Galatasaray in the Round of 16. When asked I bet most Spurs fans would’ve said they preferred Gala, even if it meant playing against an in-form Victor Osimhen. Well guess what — they drew Atletico Madrid instead. Galatasaray will play on the other side of the bracket against Liverpool.
Atleti is a solid team, though definitely beatable. They’ve got some horses in Norwegian striker Alexander Sorloth and the exciting Julian Alvarez, not to mention former Spurs target Nico Gonzalez and the somehow still animated corpse of Antoine Griezmann. Considering Spurs’ focus is likely going to be on staying in the Premier League this season you wonder whether Igor Tudor will do the Reverse-Ange to maximize Spurs’ chances of staying up. It’s not helped by the fact that Spurs are a walking M*A*S*H* unit. That said, Spurs have overachieved already in the Champions League, with a solid win over Dortmund and a 2-2 draw away at Bodø/Glimt that’s looking better and better every day. Would you be the one to write off Spurs in this matchup over two legs? I won’t be.
The good news is that Spurs ended up on the “easier” side of the bracket, and that brings me to the other two truisms. Manchester City did indeed draw a R16 matchup against Real Madrid, a pairing that feels as inevitable as the tides, and Arsenal have a relative cakewalk to the semifinals, first going up against a Bayer Leverkusen team that’s currently sixth in the Bundesliga, and then the winner of giant killers (non-Tottenham edition) Bodø/Glimt and Sporting Lisbon. The other side of the bracket includes City, Madrid, Liverpool, PSG, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich. (That said, this draw does set up what could be the funniest Bodø/Glimt upset over two legs of all time.)
Not that Tottenham’s path to Budapest is easy. Should they get past Atleti they’ll face the winner of Newcastle vs. Barcelona, and then (probably) Arsenal in the semifinals. Don’t book your tickets quite yet, is what I’m saying. But as far as matchups go, it’s a pretty tasty path. Atleti-Barca-Arsenal is both super scary and super fun, and if you’re going to win the Champions League you’ve gotta beat the best.