Spurs are closing in on a massive double transfer deal involving Manchester City - but the stats suggest that one player is much better than the other.
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After a hyperactive start to the transfer window, Tottenham Hotspur have been suspiciously quiet in recent weeks – but it now seems as though the next phase of their exceptionally expensive rebuild is about to get underway with a double deal involving Manchester City.
BBC Sport report that not only are Spurs deep into negotiations over a deal for winger Savinho – a transfer which has been expected for a while – but that they’re also in talks to sign Egypt international Omar Marmoush at the same time, 18 months after he moved to the Etihad in a deal worth a reported £59m.
With the midfield and defence already reinforced, the pair of potential transfers represent Spurs’ best efforts to upgrade an attack which has been ravaged by injuries. But will Savinho and Marmoush be enough to make the difference between another relegation battle and a serious push for the top four?
Why signing Savinho represents a major risk for Spurs
Spurs’ pursuit of Savinho has been extremely long and drawn-out. They first attempted to sign the Brazilian winger last summer, when Manchester City rejected bids worth up to £60m. A year on, however, and City are more willing to do business.
The 22-year-old endured a frustrating 2025/26 season, starting just seven Premier League matches and failing to find consistent form at any point during the campaign. That disappointment means that City have decided to cut their losses, and Spurs will almost certainly get their man at long last.
The question, of course, is whether the Savinho they will be signing is the player who struggled to make an impact last season, or the more promising wideman who enjoyed a largely impressive debut campaign in the North West the year before.
Earmarked for the same right wing role that he has largely played at City, he will be expected to compete for starting minutes with Mohammed Kudus, who is close to making his return from the thigh injury which has ruled him out since January. Key to Savinho’s success or failure in that role will be his creativity from wide areas.
The Brazilian provided eight assists in 29 Premier League appearances during the 2024/25 season, fuelled by a high volume of successful dribbles which allowed him to break defensive lines open and make use of the space that he created for himself as a result.
That dangerous dribbling went out of the window over the course of the last year, however. He went from averaging 1.8 successful carries per match to just 0.7, and while that’s partly a function of his reduced workload, his success rate also dropped from a strong 57% to a woeful 32%. Suddenly unable to trick his way past full-backs at will, Savinho became entirely unthreatening and lost his place in Manchester City’s starting side.
Getting back to his best form with the ball at his feet will be critical, because there is little evidence that he is a player who will score goals if he can’t provide them. He has just two top flight goals despite earning an xG of 7.34 over the last two years – the mark of a player utterly lacking a finishing touch.
Those struggles in front of goal are somewhat surprising considering that he was far more predatory in Spain – he managed nine La Liga goals from 6.06xG for Girona before moving to their City Group sister team. That at least provides some cause for optimism that there are some scoring instincts in there, but it’s the improvement in his ball-carrying that will make the difference between his being a success or a failure at Spurs. Given that the transfer fee paid for his services is likely to be significant, signing him represents a hefty gamble on a talented but inconsistent young player.
Why a deal for Marmoush makes plenty of sense for Spurs
The move for Omar Marmoush is slightly more surprising, although there had been widespread speculation which suggested that Spurs were in the market for a new striker – and that the Egyptian could leave the Etihad.
With Dominic Solanke enduring yet another ankle injury in pre-season and Richarlison a candidate for a transfer, Marmoush seems likely to be the new broom up front, although he can play in the number 10 role should Roberto De Zerbi decided to mix up his tactics. At present, his most advanced midfield tends to play far deeper than Marmoush has done when occupying a similar position, so it’s likely that he’s seen purely as a striker.
That means that he will be judged on his goalscoring, and while his return of 16 goals in 61 appearances for Manchester City is relatively modest there are some statistical markers which suggest that he could be a rather strong signing.
For starters, he has comfortably outshot his expected goals since signing for Manchester City 18 months ago – his 10 Premier League goals have come from 8.2xG’s worth of opportunities. His limited scoring record reflects his minutes and usage rather than his ability to take his chances.
That statement is further evidenced by his scoring record for previous club Eintracht Frankfurt. Marmoush scored 37 goals in 65 games for his former team, which was largely why City paid so much money to sign him in the first place.
The table above provides a comparison of Marmoush’s statistical output across the last two Premier League seasons with the numbers put up by both Solanke and Richarlison, the forwards currently on the books – and they make for some intriguing reading.
Marmoush is a far more efficient finisher than Solanke but, perhaps contrary to expectations, has been less lethal than Richarlison – although the Egyptian towers over both in the crucial creative stats. That could be key given that De Zerbi’s system will demand that his centre-forward can link up effectively with the wide attackers to create chances as well as put them away.
There are sample size issues due to injuries and benchings, and Marmoush’s numbers may be inflated by the fact that he was playing for a more successful side – but a reasonable conclusion is that while Marmoush probably won’t score so many more than Richarlison that it feels like a significant difference has been made, he does have a better all-round game than either of his potential rivals for a starting place.
The scale of the transfer fee will determine whether Marmoush is a worthwhile signing or not, but he does seem like a better fit for the system and his goalscoring numbers are impressive – any forward who manages around a goal every 180 minutes in the Premier League can be said to be doing a very fine job.
So a deal for Marmoush seems rather less risky than one for Savinho. As it turns out, however, both could well be on their way – and the progress of Spurs’ new attack will be interesting to watch.