Tottenham (17th, 38 points from 36 games, with a goal difference of -9) leads West Ham (18th, 36 points from 37 games, with a goal difference of -22 by two points with a game in hand, after West Ham’s recent 3-1 loss to Newcastle. Will we enjoy Tottenham’s ‘silver bullet’, or witness the most Spursy outcome imaginable?
This is a straight two-team relegation straightener between Tottenham, who have a strong goal-difference advantage and West Ham with a horrific minus -22.
Tottenham’s remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Chelsea (A)
Final day (May 24): Everton (H)
West Ham’s remaining fixture
It’s on the final day, May 24th, Leeds United at home.
The bottom line for Spurs is avoiding a total collapse, which is naturally the most Spursy outcome imaginable. The silver bullet is a win at Stamford Bridge. Tottenham beat Chelsea, and they go to 41 points (5 clear with 1 game left). West Ham cannot catch them even if they beat Leeds. Relegation confirmed for the Hammers.
A win over Chelsea plus any result for West Ham against Leeds, or a draw vs Chelsea, plus any non-loss on the final day for the Hammers, spells almost certain safety for Tottenham due to points and goal difference.
Even two draws (vs Chelsea + Everton) would likely suffice as Tottenham would be 4 points clear; West Ham would need to win their last game and overcome a massive GD swing, which is improbable, as they would need something like an 11+ goal win.
In straightforward terms, one win and one loss, or one win and one draw, should be enough for Tottenham to stay in the top flight.
Tottenham are heavy favourites to stay up. A positive result (win or draw) at Chelsea would make safety nearly certain and could relegate West Ham immediately. Even without that, the goal difference cushion provides a strong safety net. West Ham needs near-perfection plus a historic goal swing to survive. The pressure is on Spurs to avoid a total collapse, but the numbers heavily favour them.