Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will set-pieces help Arsenal breathe easier?
- Will Pep's narrow front three struggle against Leeds' midfield?
- Can Nuno get another Anfield result to alter the relegation battle?
- What will happen to Spurs if Tudor loses his second match?
- Can Abraham fire Villa through their low-block problem?
- Can Howe turn Newcastle's form around before a crucial run of tough games?
- Do Burnley need to beat Brentford to keep safety hopes alive?
- Will Pereira's new tactics play into Brighton's hands?
- Can Carrick's magic touch help Man Utd best their bogey team?
- How does Le Bris raise Sunderland's energy levels for the run-in?
Will set-pieces help Arsenal breathe easier?
An emphatic victory over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, defined by the fluency of their attacking football, was exactly what Arsenal needed to reset following the 2-2 draw with Wolverhampton Wanderers. Now, after enjoying a rare midweek break, Mikel Arteta’s side will be hoping they can put some difficult results behind them.
But it’s not that straightforward. Arsenal have won just four of their nine Premier League matches in 2026, and what they enjoyed about facing Spurs – the space given to them in the second half – might not feature when Chelsea visit on Sunday.
Chelsea head coach Liam Rosenior is a pragmatist - and he will know that Brentford and Wolves provided the template to follow. The tension could again return at Emirates Stadium.
However, there is a statistical mismatch that should allow Arsenal supporters to exhale.
Chelsea, whose defence will be weakened without the suspended Wesley Fofana, have a higher Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) from set-pieces (14.05) than any other Premier League team this season, while Arsenal of course top the charts for xG (14.08) and goals scored (17) from dead-ball situations.
Notably, Arsenal have scored just two set-piece goals across the five Premier League games they have failed to win in 2026. If they can get back in their groove in this regard, Arsenal can start putting strings of wins together again.
Will Pep's narrow front three struggle against Leeds' midfield?
Should Arsenal’s set-piece prowess shine through at the Emirates, we might discover that, contrary to expectations, Manchester City have the tougher assignment this weekend. They travel to Elland Road to play a powerful and resilient Leeds United side already set up to block Man City’s new favourite route to goal.
Over the last four Premier League matches, Pep Guardiola has deployed an ultra-narrow front three who alternate dropping deep to get on the ball, a system shift that has seen Man City attack through the centre more than ever before, as the change in their average positions since Matchweek 25 shows.
Click right to compare MW1-24 with MW25-27
This could make Man City too congested for a game like this one. Leeds are very good at funnelling everything out wide, losing just two of their last 16 matches in all competitions thanks to a 3-5-2 formation that packs three centre-backs and three central midfielders into that middle column of the pitch.
Guardiola has told reporters his new formation is solely out of necessity; a reaction to having so few fit wingers in his squad. That means the system is likely to stay - no matter how well-equipped Leeds are to handle it.
Can Nuno get another Anfield result to alter the relegation battle?
West Ham United have won 11 points from their last six Premier League games and yet this doesn’t even capture the true extent of their revival.
They really should have won eight more points from their last six, given they conceded a stoppage-time equaliser against Manchester United, blew a 2-0 lead at Chelsea, and failed to score in a 0-0 draw with AFC Bournemouth despite amassing an xG of 2.82.
It goes without saying West Ham cannot keep winning fewer points than their performances deserve. It is simply too late in the season for that.
A big win at Anfield is exactly what the Hammers need to change their luck and restore the self-belief required to turn good displays into points.
Nuno Espirito Santo will be quietly confident. His tactical approach to games like these – sit deep, absorb pressure, hit the opposition high line on the counter-attack – tends to work against Liverpool.
Last season, his Nottingham Forest side beat Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield in September and then held the eventual champions 1-1 at the City Ground in January, doing so with 31 per cent and 29 per cent possession respectively.
If West Ham put in a classic Nuno performance, they can also win at Anfield, re-energising and refocusing them for the run-in.
What will happen to Spurs if Tudor loses his second match?
Igor Tudor’s arrival was meant to signal a turn towards discipline and a laser-focus on the task of safety. The man renowned for hitting the ground running, and doing so by banging heads together, said before his first game in charge that he was “100 per cent” confident Spurs would avoid the drop.
Has the 4-1 defeat to Arsenal changed things? Spurs were carved open in a second half defined by a fatigue likely brought on by Tudor’s aggressive man-to-man pressing, while tactical holes were a serious issue throughout the game as Spurs adapted to playing a hybrid 3-4-3/3-5-2 formation.
The hope for Spurs fans is that issues around fitness or tactical confusion are ironed out with a few more training sessions under their belts. If not, the unthinkable really could happen.
If Tudor was to lose his second game in charge, panic would set in among the fan base. Of that there is absolutely no doubt. Spurs are just four points above West Ham and two above Forest, two clubs who have shown significant improvements recently.
Fulham beat Spurs 2-1 in north London earlier in the season. They have beaten Spurs twice in a row at Craven Cottage by an aggregate score of 5-0. Spurs are the only side in the Premier League without a win in 2026 and on Sunday are hoping to avoid going 10 matches without victory for the first time since 1994.
A Fulham win doesn’t bear thinking about, and yet recent history suggests it is very much on the cards.
Can Abraham fire Villa through their low-block problem?
The problems facing Aston Villa are purely tactical – and easy to diagnose.
They consistently struggle when forced to hold possession and break down a low block; when opponents refuse to fall into the trap of Villa’s press-baiting, hence Villa beating open teams like Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United in 2026 but falling flat against Brentford, Everton and Leeds.
Villa held 66.8 per cent possession in their 1-1 draw with Leeds last weekend, leaving them with a record of just five wins from their last 17 games when holding 65 per cent or more possession. In 2025/26, they have won only one of five such matches.
That makes Wolves surprisingly difficult opponents for Villa, although they might have a solution in Tammy Abraham.
Villa looked a lot better against Leeds after Abraham came on, and indeed there is an argument for Villa starting with two strikers at Molineux in the hope of playing a more direct game that stops the ball getting stuck at the back.
Whatever the system, Abraham, who scored the equaliser against Leeds, should play a key role. Abraham has scored more goals against Wolves (six) than any other opponent in English league football.
Can Howe turn Newcastle’s form around before a crucial run of tough games?
This might not be the headline fixture of the weekend but Newcastle arguably haven’t had a more important game all season.
Newcastle are averaging just 1.33 points per game in the Premier League, their lowest ratio in a season under head coach Eddie Howe. They are still only four points off seventh, however, meaning the campaign can be saved – but the rescue attempt needs to start now.
Howe’s side have lost four of their last five Premier League matches, a run that obviously has to stop, but more importantly Newcastle face a very difficult run of fixtures after this weekend’s game.
They play Man Utd (H) and Chelsea (A) next in the Premier League before the Tyne-Wear derby against Sunderland at St James' Park, and sandwiched between those games is an FA Cup tie against Man City and both legs of their UEFA Champions League round-of-16 ties.
It’s an extremely difficult set of games, especially for a side that have struggled to juggle multiple competitions this season; Newcastle are winless in their last seven weekend matches following a midweek cup tie.
In other words, they simply have to beat Everton in order to start this crucial run in some kind of form.
But it won’t come easy. Everton have won the second-most away points in the Premier League since David Moyes’ first away game back in charge in January last year (38).
Do Burnley need to beat Brentford to keep safety hopes alive?
After beating Crystal Palace and drawing at Chelsea, Burnley have earned four points from their last two Premier League games, just one fewer than they had in their previous 16.
Scott Parker’s side are still eight points shy of the safety offered by 17th place. There is no doubt about it: if they are to stay up, they have to ride the momentum of those last two matches and put a serious winning streak together. This is their very last chance.
Brentford have won four of their last five Premier League away games, making them formidable opponents. However, should Burnley get a positive result at Turf Moor, they would feel the confidence flowing before a trip to Everton, who haven’t won a home game since early December.
Win both games and safety is on the cards. But fall short on Saturday and Burnley fans may give up hope.
Will Pereira’s new tactics play into Brighton’s hands?
Although a late Alexis Mac Allister goal won Liverpool the points, Forest played very well in their first game under head coach Vitor Pereira, and it should excite the club's supporters that the players so quickly took to his ideas.
Comparing their season averages to the 1-0 defeat against Liverpool, we can see just how dramatically Forest changed focus, moving towards an aggressive pressing game and counter-attacks funnelled quickly down both flanks.
Forest's attacking style per 90, MW1-26 v Liverpool
Matchweeks 1-26 v Liverpool High turnovers 3.3 8.0 Switches of play 7.1 12.0 Passes per defensive action 14.3 11.9
However, Brighton are simply not the kind of opponent to press onto. In fact, Pereira’s new system could prove to be a kamikaze mission.
Only two of Brighton’s eight Premier League wins this season came in matches when Fabian Hurzeler’s side have held more than 50 per cent possession, capturing the central issue with Brighton’s football: if they face low blocks they struggle, but if teams come onto them they revel in an end-to-end game.
Can Carrick's magic touch help Man Utd beat their bogey team?
Another late winner on Monday night, and another tough game navigated, has made Michael Carrick look like a manager with a magic touch. Man Utd have won five and drawn one of Carrick’s six games in charge, a phenomenal record that has seen them climb to within three points of third place.
But a true test of Carrick’s Midas touch comes on Sunday.
Palace have won four of their last six away league meetings with Man Utd, a pretty remarkable record that highlights just how often in recent years the hosts have struggled to play against well-drilled counter-attacking sides at Old Trafford.
What’s more, Palace have won two of their last three Premier League games and could feel revived by their UEFA Conference League exploits on Thursday evening.
How does Le Bris raise Sunderland’s energy levels for the run-in?
There is a serious danger that Sunderland’s excellent season is going to end in a whimper.
Perhaps it’s fatigue, or perhaps opponents have begun to work them out, but either way Sunderland are on the slide.
They have lost their last three Premier League games, as many as in their previous 12, and if we break their campaign into two halves it looks even starker.
Sunderland's record, first 13 matches v last 13 matches
Record Points per game First 13 matches W7 D4 L2 1.9 Last 14 matches W3 D5 L6 1.0
Regis Le Bris needs to find a way to raise the team’s spirits and raise their energy levels.