Six Premier League managers have already fallen with just over a third of the 2025-26 season remaining. Results this week could well shape how many more go before the campaign ends in May.
Newcastle, for example, are winless in five after Saturday’s chaotic home defeat to Brentford, leaving them 12th, and closer to the relegation zone than the top four. Tottenham are yet to win a league game in 2026 despite encouraging European form.
Both Newcastle head coach Eddie Howe and his Spurs counterpart Thomas Frank have risen to their current posts by merit, leading clubs into the Premier League for the first time in their respective histories, over-performing on smaller budgets and reduced expectations, before making the step up to Champions League teams. In the case of Howe — the fourth-longest serving manager in the English top flight, who ended a 56-year trophy drought last season — he turned Newcastle into a Champions League side for the first time since 2003 when he secured qualification two seasons ago.
Tonight (Tuesday), the two teams face each other at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a game that feels freighted with significance. At the weekend, Howe said he was “not doing my job well enough” and that this evening’s game was “massive”; Frank, similarly, has admitted Spurs are “desperate” for wins.
Just what is going wrong at both clubs, and where can this critical fixture be won and lost? The Athletic drills into the data to find out.
Wayward finishing and the search for creative spark
On paper, this is a clash between two of the most evenly-matched sides in the division; both have scored 35 Premier League goals this season, while Newcastle have conceded only one more than Tottenham with 36.
Digging into the underlying numbers, however, suggests that today’s visitors have generated enough goalscoring opportunities to expect to outscore the north Londoners by 12 goals, with only Arsenal and Manchester City allowing fewer expected goals (xG).
As we can see from the visualisation below, Newcastle have been the fifth-strongest team in the top flight according to their expected goal difference, a metric that is a solid indicator of team performance. Yet, through a combination of poor finishing and clinical opposition counters, they have been dragged down the table to lie closer to teams both much weaker in attack and leakier in defence than they are.
Howe has pointed to his team’s statistical underperformance throughout the season, watching on as his boys miss big chances at key moments in games and throw away leads, having already dropped 19 points from winning positions after 25 of the 38 games. Their second-half display in the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Manchester City last week, in which they spurned two huge chances via Anthony Elanga and Yoane Wissa, was a source of particular frustration.
Newcastle have cycled through different options at centre-forward in an attempt to remedy the situation. Summer signing Nick Woltemade has faded following his fast start, the Bundesliga import struggling to cope with the physicality of Premier League defenders and failing to get into the box often enough. Wissa has not looked sharp after an injury lay-off that delayed his Newcastle debut until December, while even Anthony Gordon has been trialled through the middle. Will Osula brings high-intensity running from the bench, but not consistency in front of goal.
It all means that Newcastle have been more reliant on set pieces, with six of their nine Premier League goals in 2026 arriving from dead-ball deliveries. Howe needs more production from his finishers on the break.
Spurs, on the other hand, simply aren’t creating enough to merit more than they’ve achieved in attack. No team have over-performed their expected goals figure by more, a charge led by goalscoring centre-backs Cristian Romero and Mickey van de Ven, who have popped up with towering headers and snap-shots from knockdowns and set pieces.
Season-long (so far) injuries to the squad’s most gifted technicians from open play, Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison, have not helped. But there are well-documented issues with progressing the ball through midfield which have yet to be addressed, meaning that Frank’s side are similarly dependent on set pieces to get the ball close to the opposition goal.
Injuries… and lots of them
When it rains, it pours, and Frank has particular reason to curse his luck after a summer switch from Brentford.
Alongside his sidelined creators mentioned above, a January thigh injury to Mohammed Kudus cut off Spurs’ most reliable supply line up the pitch — a winger who is adept at receiving long passes with his back to goal and bringing others into play. The player responsible for almost half those searching forward passes to the Ghanaian, Pedro Porro, has also missed the past three games with a hamstring strain.
Kudus’ injury and the return of Destiny Udogie prompted a tweak to the system, as Spurs switched to a back three to allow their left-back to push on. There have been positive signs — width from those wing-backs has allowed both Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert the freedom to drift inside, a role that has particularly suited Simons. Dominic Solanke’s return up top has also helped the ball to stick, with more opportunities for those creative No 10s to pick up the ball in advanced areas.
As we can see from the passing network against Burnley last month, both Simons and Odobert were involved from inverted roles, while January signing Conor Gallagher is given freedom to make late runs beyond the last line with Yves Bissouma in a holding position.
Again, injuries have limited the effectiveness of the new shape. Porro was replaced momentarily by Djed Spence, who has since been covered for by Archie Gray, a midfielder who is not so natural when it comes to bombing down the line and whipping in crosses.
On the opposite flank, Frank confirmed that Udogie will be out for “four to five weeks”, leaving few options to play that left wing-back role. With Romero also suspended after his red card at Manchester United, there are even fewer options at centre-back, with midfielder Joao Palhinha already filling in there.
Frank may have to return to a back four for the visit of Newcastle.
Even when progress looks to be made, availability forces his hand.
Vulnerability to counter-attacks
No team have conceded more xG from Opta-defined fast breaks than Newcastle this season, and the weekend’s 3-2 defeat by visitors Brentford made those defensive deficiencies alarmingly clear.
Howe’s side are not afraid to commit players forward for quick attacks, but there is a lack of organisation and the ability to recover, particularly when Sandro Tonali ventures from his anchoring midfield role.
In the below sequence from that match, for example, Tonali takes over from Jacob Murphy and carries the ball into the box, but sees his cutback intercepted by Vitaly Janelt. In frame two, we see Murphy and Joe Willock left exposed, with four black-and-white shirts inside the penalty area as Brentford look to move forward with speed.
Igor Thiago provides the out-ball, bringing a long pass under control and spinning to find Michael Kayode, one of two Brentford players who have raced through midfield and left markers behind. Kayode eventually found Dango Ouattara, who pulled one back to Mathias Jensen, and he won a penalty that Thiago scored from to put Brentford 2-1 up.
The second half presented another example, after Howe replaced midfielder Willock with winger Elanga in an attacking half-time switch.
Once again, Tonali is out wide with Elanga on the overlap, but the Italian’s pass towards Wissa is intercepted.
Only Bruno Guimaraes has stayed back in midfield, and the Brazilian is on hand as the ball pops out to Jensen. However, winger Harvey Barnes is not alert to the lay-off, allowing Janelt to receive it and then drive away, leaving six Newcastle players in his wake.
The irony is that Frank’s preferred play-style from his days at Brentford — hitting hard and fast on the break and isolating his centre-forwards against defenders with long passes — would hurt this Newcastle side in their current state.
At Spurs, however, particularly at home, the manager has struggled to balance the demand for attractive, possession-heavy football with incisive attacking play, leading to a situation in which his team are usually less effective when playing in front of his own fans.
It presents a fascinating, must-win contest for both sides, with gaping weaknesses on either team there to be exploited.