Tottenham’s expected points in the Premier League this season fall well short of the points tally that they have actually acquired.
Many will be wondering why there is a feeling of a mini-crisis surrounding Tottenham Hotspur this season, given the club’s results.
The Lilywhites sit in fifth place in the Premier League table and remain unbeaten in the Champions League so far. This is despite the fact that Spurs have had to deal with an extremely bloated fixture list.
However, the numbers clearly suggest that Tottenham’s performances have not been up to scratch.
Tottenham are outperforming their xG considerably in the Premier League
A team’s expected points are calculated based on the xG they register and concede each game to ascertain how many points a team should have.
Sqwaka have now revealed that based on those calculations, Tottenham should have accumulated just 11 points instead of the 18 they now have.
According to the data-analysis platform, that would put Spurs in 15th place in the xG table, with just two wins, five draws and four losses from their 11 matches so far.
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One fundamental flaw with xG counts against Spurs
Apart from the obvious flaws in using xG as the main metric to judge chances created, there is one big fundamental flaw with the system that gives an unfair reading of any match.
Put simply, most teams that are in the lead are more likely to sit back and invite pressure, which means that the sides that are trailing tend to have more shots in the latter stages of the game.
That has certainly been the case with Spurs, with Frank not afraid to sit back and preserve leads, with the Dane often throwing Kevin Danso in as the third centre-back to help the Lilywhites see out wins.
However, having said that, there is no doubt that Tottenham’s results this season flatter them a bit, and Frank’s men are yet to click as an attacking force.