Tottenham host Atletico Madrid at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Tuesday night in the Champions League round of 16 second leg with the Spanish side holding a commanding lead after the 5-2 victory in the first meeting.
The opening match in Madrid produced an entertaining contest with both teams finding the net. Atletico finished the game with 11 shots and seven on target while Tottenham also produced 11 attempts with five on target. The match delivered seven goals and underlined the attacking quality both sides bring into this tie.
Atletico controlled the rhythm of the game with 58% possession and completed 417 accurate passes while Tottenham finished with 296. The Spanish side also spent more time in advanced areas with 24 touches inside the opposition box compared with 17 from Spurs.
Tottenham still produced threatening moments despite spending longer without the ball. The London side covered 116.2 km during the match and produced 12 interceptions as they worked to disrupt Atletico’s attacking play.
Spurs arrive for the second leg after a positive domestic result. They secured a 1-1 draw away at Liverpool which helped move them further clear of the bottom three. The performance showed resilience but pressure remains on manager Igor Tudor as the club looks to stabilise results.
Despite the first leg defeat, Tottenham bring a strong European home record into the match. Spurs are unbeaten in their last 24 UEFA home games with 20 wins and four draws. They have also won all four home matches in this season’s competition without conceding.
Atletico arrive with attacking momentum. They have opened the scoring in seven of their last eight Champions League matches and Julian Alvarez has scored 13 goals in his last 16 appearances in the competition.
How the bookies view it: Bookies split on victors
Tottenham are priced at 8/5 in the match winner market, which equates to a 38.46% implied probability of a home victory. Atletico Madrid are also priced at 8/5, representing the same 38.46% implied probability of an away win. The draw is available at 29/10, which implies a 25.64% probability.
The goals markets suggest expectations of a relatively open contest in London. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/11, which converts to a 57.89% implied probability of at least three goals in the match.
Both teams to score is available at 4/6, representing a 60.00% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Visitors hold the edge
The two sides have met twice in previous meetings with Atletico Madrid winning both matches. Across those games the Spanish side have scored six goals while conceding two, producing an average of four total goals per match.
The most recent meeting came on 10 March 2026 in the Champions League round of 16 first leg where Atletico secured a 5-2 victory in Spain. The match produced seven goals and showed the attacking threat both teams carried in the tie.
The other meeting came in an international club friendly in July 2016 where Atletico recorded a 1-0 win against the London side.
Players to watch: Solanke to hit the target as Spurs chase the game
Dominic Solanke has made a strong impact in limited minutes for Tottenham in this Champions League campaign and the numbers support interest in him registering 1+ shot on target.
The forward has featured in three matches and played 132 minutes, scoring three goals across those appearances. He has produced six shots with four on target which shows high efficiency in front of goal.
His performances include one goal against Borussia Dortmund, one against Eintracht Frankfurt and another in the first leg against Atletico Madrid. In that match he recorded two shots with both on target despite playing only 45 minutes.
Across his three appearances he has recorded at least one shot on target in every match. That consistency, combined with his goal return, highlights his ability to test the goalkeeper when given opportunities.
With Tottenham expected to push forward in the second leg, his role in attacking areas should again provide chances to shoot. Those numbers support Dominic Solanke to record 1+ shot on target.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham Hotspur (3-4-3): Kinsky; Danso, Dragusin, Van de Ven; Porro, Gray, Sarr, Spence; Kolo Muani, Solanke, Tel.
Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Musso; Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Ruggeri; Simeone, Llorente, Cardoso, Lookman; Griezmann, Alvarez.
Anything else catch the eye?
The statistical profile of the first leg between these two sides points towards another match featuring goals at both ends which supports the angle of both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
The opening match in Madrid produced a high volume of quality chances. Atletico generated 2.59 xG while Tottenham produced 1.99 xG which created a combined 4.58 expected goals across the contest.
Both teams consistently created opportunities in dangerous areas. Each side produced five big chances during the match which highlights how regularly the attacks reached clear scoring positions.
Chance creation largely came from open play. Atletico generated 2.33 xG from open play while Tottenham produced 1.68 from the same situations. Those figures underline how frequently both teams were able to progress the ball into scoring areas.
Shot location also reflects the attacking nature of the tie. Both teams produced nine shots inside the penalty area which shows how often defensive lines were broken during the game.
Even with Atletico controlling possession, Tottenham still created opportunities. The London side produced the same number of total shots as Atletico and regularly threatened the goal despite having only 42% of the ball.
The game state heading into the second leg also encourages attacking play. Tottenham must chase the deficit after the 5-2 defeat which should force them to commit players forward.
With both teams already producing multiple big chances and a high combined xG total in the first meeting, the numbers support another open contest featuring both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading