Tottenham Hotspur host Brentford in the Premier League at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday. Both sides enter the match looking for stability after difficult runs.
Tottenham’s home profile shows issues in control. Their overall xG rank is 13th and on xPTS they occupy 12th place. Home shots stand at 8.86 while they allow 10.71. Only Wolverhampton and Burnley have conceded more shots in the box this season at home.
Tottenham’s NPxGA sits at 1.36 highlighting defensive vulnerability. Touches inside their own box reach 6.4 per match and opposition shots on target reach 4.00 with only seven teams conceding more.
Over the last eight matches they sit 13th conceding 1.47 NPxGA and 6.4 shots in the box. They were completely outplayed midweek against Newcastle and came away with a very fortunate point. This was the fourth game on the bounce where they have failed to register a shot on target in the opening half.
Brentford are developing under Keith Andrews. Their last four matches show an npxG ratio of 0.68 and a strong xG supremacy of 0.72. They sit third for set-piece xG creation in the last four.
Across the season they hold high rankings in SIB supremacy and SOT efficiency. They deliver 3.83 shots on target away. Brentford rank sixth in total big chances created at home and away combined. Their last eight xPTS return of 14.99, which sees them sit second. Away record W1-D0-L6 remains a concern but high goal involvement keeps them competitive. They hit 11.17 shots away while allowing 15.86 which shapes matches with volume.
Pressure surrounds both technical areas. Spurs’ overall home record W1-D2-L4 increases tension. Brentford’s away returns push urgency. Both sides arrive with inconsistent form and defensive issues but retain dangerous forwards. The table remains tight in this mid-section and each point influences positioning. Expectations focus on tempo, energy, and response in key attacking zones.
How the bookies view it: Spurs favourites
Tottenham sit at 132/100 in the match winner market with a 41% implied chance. The draw is 13/5 at 27%. Brentford are 9/4 with a 32% implied chance.
The goal markets indicate stronger confidence in scoring. Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 implies 55%. Both teams to score at 4/6 implies 60%.
Both teams have weak clean sheet rates and reliable scoring trends. Match result probabilities are tighter than the goal lines, and the pricing reflects stronger expectations for goals than picking a winner.
Head to Head: Hosts have the better record
The recent meetings between Tottenham and Brentford point to frequent goals and competitive games. Across the last nine in league and cup, Tottenham lead with five wins, Brentford have one, and three ended level. Goals per match average 3.00, with Tottenham scoring 1.89 and Brentford 1.11.
Both teams scoring has landed in seven of those nine. Over 2.5 goals has hit in five of the last six and six of nine overall. Clean sheets are rare in this fixture. Tottenham have recorded two. Brentford have kept one. Attacks tend to decide these contests.
Recent scorelines include 3-2, 3-1, 2-2, 3-1 and 3-2. Tottenham usually create enough in home matches. Brentford bring threat and target output even away when conceding control.
The matchup consistently produces scoring chances at both ends.
Players to watch: Thiago a fouling machine on the road
Thiago has strong away foul output. Seven away matches, six starts, 455 minutes. He has recorded sixteen fouls in these fixtures, producing at least two in five of seven.
Sunderland saw four fouls. Fulham saw three. Nottingham Forest also three. Crystal Palace three. Brighton two. Only West Ham and Arsenal stayed below two, though he still committed one in both.
Brentford press high under Keith Andrews. Thiago engages centre backs and defensive midfielders. Ground duels occur in every match. His role keeps him back-to-goal receiving direct passes. Tottenham draw 11.90 fouls per home game. Brentford commit 10.80 away. Thiago should stay active enough to reach two fouls again.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham Hotspur (4-2-3-1): Vicario, Porro, Romero, Danso, Udogie, Bentancur, Sarr, Kudus, Bergvall, Johnson, Kolo Muani.
Brentford (4-2-3-1): Kelleher, Hickey, van den Berg, Collins, Kayode, Jensen, Henderson, Schade, Damsgaard, Ouattara, Thiago.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals holds a strong statistical base. Premier League matches hit over 2.5 in 56% (1.79 implied). The available 1.83 gives a favourable margin.
Tottenham give up frequent pressure in the box. In the last eight at home they average 4.9 shots in the box for and 6.4 against, a 43% ratio that highlights concession risk. Home xGA sits at 1.36 and their non-pen xGA ranks 15th. Opponents also generate 5.43 corners per match, keeping Spurs pinned in set-piece phases.
They have conceded first in four of the last eight at home. Those early setbacks lead to stretched matches with space for more chances. Their last eight league games average a combined 2.62 xG and over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of those fixtures.
Brentford away concede frequent danger. Their non-pen xGA sits at 0.98 but the shots profile tells a stronger story. Seven big chances conceded away and only five created across the last four. They allow 11.17 shots per match and 3.00 shots on target.
They concede 5.83 corners. Across the last eight away, shots in box against hit 9.6 per match with only 6.3 for. Their away xG total reaches 2.62 with a higher share coming after turnovers. Their both teams to score away hit rate is 67% this season. Over 3.07 goals per match under Keith Andrews shows sustained volatility.
Brentford have one clean sheet in seven away matches. Tottenham have one clean sheet in seven at home. Across their combined home and away sample that is two clean sheets in fourteen fixtures, an 86% concession rate. Both defences allow goals in the majority of these matches
Over 2.5 goals fits the match profile and the market price
Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading