Despite the defeat in Wednesday’s nothing-more-than-a-friendly, Tottenham Hotspur enters the Thomas Frank era with plenty of hope. With the silverware drought finally ended and transfer rumors continuing to fly, the start of the new campaign feels overall very positive, though there is much work to do. A 17th-place finish will not happen again, but Frank faces a difficult road to get the club back where it belongs.
That all starts with a visit from promoted Burnley to begin the Premier League season. The Clarets have gone down-up-down-up the past four years and will try their best to make it a multi-year stay this time, though betting markets have them favored to once again drop back down. At home against a bottom side, Spurs have no excuses on Saturday to not open up with three points.
Match Details
Date: Saturday, August 16
Time: 10:00 am ET, 3:00 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: Peacock (US)
Table: Tottenham (0 pts), Burnley (0 pts)
Spurs beat Burnley three times in the 2023/24 season before the Clarets returned to the Championship. At Turf Moor, Heung-Min Son bagged a hat trick and Cristian Romero and James Maddison added belters in a 5-2 win. Pedro Porro one-upped them all to secure an FA Cup Third Round victory, then scored another impressive goal in the 2-1 league win in North London, with Micky van de Ven slotting in the winner. After all, scoring goals is just what Romero and van de Ven do!
Three Big Questions
How will Frank force the issue? Though the horrendous defense doomed Tottenham last season, there are more question marks regarding the attack at the moment. Reinforcements may be on the way, but even with the rumored names, it is not perfectly clear how this side will progress the ball. It was fun to see the set pieces yield a pair of goals against PSG, but at the end of the day, this squad must convert possession into chances.
Spurs will face plenty of low blocks this season — certainly an increased amount for Frank — so answering this challenge quickly is imperative. Burnley will obviously look to sit and defend as much as possible, meaning supporters will get an early glimpse at Tottenham’s tactics against (and ability to break down) extremely defensive sides. Do not expect another back three this weekend.
Is the Burnley defense actually good? Burnley conceded a ridiculously low 16 goals in 46 Championship matches last season and will now try to carry that performance forward. But against much, much higher competition and without outstanding keeper James Trafford at Turf Moor this year, it seems difficult to feel great about this defense despite the previous season’s success.
In addition to promotion and personnel turnover, also working against the Clarets is a simple argument for regression. With 39.1 xGA last year, odds are the defensive excellence was going to slip even still in the Championship. Now facing significantly better opponents and elite attackers, the floodgates might open. Unfortunately, Spurs might not be able to fully capitalize, but Burnley’s defensive numbers (and narratives) from last season do likely overstate reality.
How much patience does the fanbase have? While this is just one of 38 matches, it will be difficult to not extrapolate out the entire year following Saturday, especially if Tottenham does not secure the win. After taking 15 points against the newly promoted clubs in 2022/23, and all 18 points in 2023/24, Spurs were just 3-1-2 against them last season. Though that campaign was (hopefully??) an anomaly, starting the season with more struggles against the bottom would be a troubling omen.
I hope for patience with Frank — especially with the transfer window still open and a positive showing in Udine — but know that all of us are desperate to have long-term faith in a system again. Tottenham has not opened the league season with a win since 2022/23; this feels like the perfect opportunity to snap this drought and move forward from the sourness of (the domestic portion of) last year.