Tottenham produced only 0.52 non-penalty xG and conceded 3.37 during their opening defeat at Brentford, the weakest defensive performance recorded by any Premier League side across the first weekend. Roberto De Zerbi now has only a few days to respond before Charlton Athletic arrive at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Wednesday for a 7.45pm kick-off.
The 3-0 score line did not flatter Brentford, who outshot Spurs 26-9 and prevented them from registering an effort on target during the first half. Keane Lewis-Potter, Vitaly Janelt and Michael Kayode scored, while only the post stopped Igor Thiago adding a fourth from a late penalty.
It continued the pattern behind consecutive 17th-place finishes despite Spurs spending around £237m during the summer. The club broke its transfer record twice, with Sandro Tonali arriving from Newcastle for £100m before Mateus Fernandes joined for £85m.
Tonali started alongside fellow additions Andy Robertson, Marcos Senesi and Jan Paul van Hecke, while Fernandes replaced a teammate at half-time. The changes failed to improve the performance, with Spurs continuing to look vulnerable defensively and short of ideas in possession.
Micky van de Ven's injury creates another problem for De Zerbi. Archie Gray wore the armband as Tottenham's youngest captain before he was also substituted, leaving James Maddison to finish the match as skipper after an injury-hit previous season.
Spurs remain in talks over possible moves for Manchester City pair Savinho and Omar Marmoush, showing the rebuilding process is still incomplete despite the amount already spent.
Charlton arrive with six Championship points following victories over Derby County and West Ham United. Nathan Jones' side came from behind to beat Derby before producing a 2-1 win away at West Ham.
Captain Lloyd Jones opened the scoring with an overhead kick before Tyreece Campbell doubled the advantage by dispossessing Konstantinos Mavropanos. Joel Piroe pulled one back on his West Ham debut, but Valentin Castellanos missed a stoppage-time penalty that would have earned the hosts a draw.
Charlton were placed under sustained pressure and finished with only 0.57 xG compared with West Ham's total of almost 3.00. Their victory relied heavily on determined defending, efficient finishing and Castellanos' late miss, but it also showed their ability to compete when outplayed.
Jones has prioritised character during his summer recruitment, while goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo impressed on his debut after arriving on loan from Wrexham.
Charlton also produced a convincing performance in the first round of this competition, beating Cheltenham Town 3-1 after recording 17 shots compared with seven for their opponents. They have therefore scored in every competitive match this season, regardless of venue or the quality of opposition.
How the bookies view it
Tottenham are 3/11 to win in 90 minutes, implying a 78.6% chance. The draw is priced at 21/4 and carries an implied probability of 16%, while Charlton are 11/1 at 8.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 12/25, implying a 67.6% chance. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is priced at 5/4, carrying an implied probability of 44.4%.
Head to head: Spurs have had the better of Charlton over the years
The clubs have not met since an FA Cup tie in January 2011, when Tottenham won 3-0. Spurs also lead the longer record, winning seven of the previous 12 meetings compared with Charlton's four, alongside one draw.
Most of those fixtures took place during the mid-2000s when both teams competed in the Premier League, limiting their relevance to the current squads.
Player to watch: Mikey Moore to get his chance to impress
Mikey Moore spent last season on loan at Rangers, scoring seven goals and providing three assists across 41 appearances in all competitions. He operated mainly as an attacking midfielder but also featured as a forward and on the left wing.
That versatility gives De Zerbi several options within a front three that failed to score at Brentford. A home cup tie against Championship opposition should also provide Moore with an opportunity to press for a more regular role.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham Hotspur (4-3-3): Dubravka; Gray, Van Hecke, Danso, Udogie; Fernandes, Bentancur, Bergvall; Moore, Solanke, Tel.
Charlton Athletic (4-2-3-1): Kaminski; Rankin-Costello, Jones, Burke, Bell; Chalobah, Coventry; Campbell, Carey, Grant; Leaburn.
Anything else catch the eye?
The main bet is both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 5/4, implying a 44.4% chance. Tottenham conceded three goals and 3.37 non-penalty xG at Brentford, while Charlton have scored in every match this season.
Spurs' opening performance provides the main support for opposing their clean sheet. They allowed 26 shots and failed to control the spaces around a defence containing several summer signings. Van de Ven's absence removes further experience from a unit still adapting to De Zerbi's methods.
Charlton have scored twice in each of their Championship matches and added three against Cheltenham in the cup. They recovered from behind against Derby and punished West Ham twice despite creating only 0.57 xG, showing their current finishing has exceeded the quality of their chances.
Their opening numbers also point towards an open game, with Charlton averaging 0.98 non-penalty xG while conceding 1.97. That defensive figure gives Tottenham a strong chance of scoring more than once, even after their poor display at Brentford.
Charlton's ability to contribute is the less secure part of the bet because their win at West Ham relied on efficient finishing and surviving almost 3.00 xG. Tottenham's defensive display was poor enough to make the risk acceptable, particularly without Van de Ven.
The result market gives Spurs a 78.6% implied chance of winning, but their price offers little interest after such a weak opening performance. Combining both teams to score with over 2.5 goals allows for Tottenham's superior quality while recognising the defensive problems Charlton are equipped to exploit.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading