It feels somewhat impressive that Tottenham Hotspur managed to hold on to its 3-2 win at Hoffenheim last week, being sandwiched by defeats to relegation contenders in the Premier League. Everything seems to be going wrong for Spurs, yet their Europa League dream remains alive, which is a good thing for Ange Postecoglou as it is possibly what is keeping him employed.
This new version of the Europa League makes the final matchweek quite interesting. Spurs are tied for fifth but sit just one point ahead of ninth place, and slipping down would force them into two more fixtures in the Playoff Round. The squad clearly lacks the depth to handle any additional matches, so securing a top-eight finish is crucial. While a draw on Thursday might suffice, there is no reason Tottenham should not beat Elfsborg at home, especially with so much on the line.
Tottenham Hotspur (t-5th, 14pts) vs. Elfsborg (t-16th, 10pts)
Date: Thursday, January 30
Time: 3:00 pm ET, 8:00 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: Paramount+ (USA), TNT Sports 2 (UK)
Opta rankings suggest Elfsborg would rank 19th in the Premier League — slightly below Leicester but ahead of Southampton. The visitors are hanging on to a spot in the top 24 of the Europa League table and will advance with a positive result on Thursday; even a loss might not spell elimination, depending on other contests. A 3-1-3 record in the League Phase includes wins over Roma and Nice with a -2 goal difference overall.
Those three wins have all come at home, each by a 1-0 scoreline. The lone draw, against Braga, also came at home and featured just a goal apiece. Conversely, all three losses have been on the road, with the opposition scoring at least three goals. Elfsborg has conceded possession in every single contest and has a clear blueprint, which seemingly works against the underdogs this week.
Tottenham has limited history against Swedish opposition, and Elfsborg has never faced an English side in competitive play. Most of Elfsborg’s sporadic European history consists of early exits in the Europa League qualifying rounds, with plenty of mid-table Allsvenskan finishes. Last year’s second-place effort in the league set forth this European campaign, but this domestic season so far has been less inspiring.
How much leeway?
It is not bold to say that Elfsborg is a limited side. Opta ratings rank Ferencvaros, AZ Alkmaar, and Hoffenheim as tougher opponents than the Swedes, all clubs that Spurs have beaten in this phase. Tottenham’s declining form is a concern, but for a must-win game to secure a bye, this matchup seems about as favorable as it could be for Postecoglou.
Elfsborg’s limited attacking threat makes it unlikely it will pose too many problems offensively, though I am never suggesting a Spurs’ clean sheet ever again. Tottenham will dominate possession, trying to break down a disciplined low block that will be content to defend in numbers. Patience and creativity will be key, though Spurs have struggled in these areas. Picking the right moments to charge through, and not get killed on the counter, is what this comes down to.
Postecoglou may rotate a little — though injuries and lack of depth limit his choices — and field some younger players. This could work in Spurs’ favor, as determination and energy will be essential against an opponent looking to slow the match down. As poor as this side has been at protecting leads, getting in front early seems like a necessity. I will cautiously believe that the home team has enough quality to run out the clock should it find a way to jump ahead.